Recent official forecasts from sources including the Met Office, Worldmeteo, and Yr.no project Mexico City’s minimum temperature on October 4 near 13–16°C, driven by moderate northeasterly flow, overnight cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit radiational cooling. This range aligns with early-October climatology yet reflects model consensus on a stable airmass without strong cold-air advection or clear skies that could produce sharper drops. Trader odds near 49% for extremes (7°C or below versus 17°C or higher) highlight uncertainty in precise overnight minimums amid variable precipitation timing and local elevation effects, while mid-range outcomes around 13–16°C capture the most probable resolution window based on current guidance. Updated model runs and official briefings ahead of the date will refine these probabilities.