Recent forecast guidance from models including GFS and Met Office ensembles points to clear to partly cloudy skies and light variable winds over Warsaw on October 16, 2026, promoting radiative cooling and overnight minima near 4–5 °C. Ensemble spreads and differing model timing for any thin cloud or wind shifts create a narrow but uncertain range centered on 3–7 °C, with lower probabilities assigned to extremes below 0 °C or above 8 °C. This setup aligns with typical mid-October climatology for the region, where clear high-pressure influence often yields the season’s first notable cool nights, keeping trader focus on subtle differences in boundary-layer conditions and model consensus updates expected before resolution.