Latest ensemble forecasts from models such as GFS point to a Saturday minimum near 4°C in Warsaw under partly cloudy skies and light southeasterly winds, supporting trader clustering around single-digit outcomes. Radiational cooling overnight will depend on cloud cover fraction and boundary-layer stability; clearer intervals promote greater heat loss from the surface, while increased humidity or wind shear limits the drop. Historical October lows average 4–8°C, providing context for the narrow spread between 0°C and 8°C probabilities. Market-implied odds near 34% for each single degree reflect genuine uncertainty in precise overnight minimums, as small shifts in forecast cloud timing or advection can alter the outcome by 1–2°C. Fresh model runs expected within 24 hours will likely tighten consensus ahead of resolution.