The July 5 suspension of Mallory McMorrow’s campaign has narrowed the August 4 Democratic primary to a head-to-head contest between progressive Abdul El-Sayed and moderate Rep. Haley Stevens. El-Sayed holds a polling edge and key progressive endorsements, including from Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, while Stevens benefits from establishment backing and a substantial advertising advantage linked in part to pro-Israel groups. Policy contrasts on healthcare, immigration, and unconditional aid to Israel remain central in a state with a large Arab American electorate, and electability debates in the general election against the GOP nominee add uncertainty. With the primary weeks away and no dominant polling or spending breakout, trader pricing reflects a closely contested race in which modest shifts in turnout or late momentum could alter the margin.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Stevens 15%+ 45%
El-Sayed 5–10% 40%
El-Sayed 20–25% 38%
Stevens 10–15% 38%
新規
新規
2026/08/04
El-Sayed 25%+
32%
El-Sayed 20–25%
38%
El-Sayed 15–20%
23%
El-Sayed 10–15%
30%
El-Sayed 5–10%
40%
El-Sayed <5%
36%
Stevens <5%
35%
Stevens 5–10%
31%
Stevens 10–15%
38%
Stevens 15%+
45%
Stevens 15%+ 45%
El-Sayed 5–10% 40%
El-Sayed 20–25% 38%
Stevens 10–15% 38%
新規
新規
2026/08/04
El-Sayed 25%+
$0 Vol.
32%
El-Sayed 20–25%
$0 Vol.
38%
El-Sayed 15–20%
$0 Vol.
23%
El-Sayed 10–15%
$0 Vol.
30%
El-Sayed 5–10%
$0 Vol.
40%
El-Sayed <5%
$0 Vol.
36%
Stevens <5%
$0 Vol.
35%
Stevens 5–10%
$0 Vol.
31%
Stevens 10–15%
$0 Vol.
38%
Stevens 15%+
$5 Vol.
45%
Primary elections in Michigan are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The July 5 suspension of Mallory McMorrow’s campaign has narrowed the August 4 Democratic primary to a head-to-head contest between progressive Abdul El-Sayed and moderate Rep. Haley Stevens. El-Sayed holds a polling edge and key progressive endorsements, including from Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, while Stevens benefits from establishment backing and a substantial advertising advantage linked in part to pro-Israel groups. Policy contrasts on healthcare, immigration, and unconditional aid to Israel remain central in a state with a large Arab American electorate, and electability debates in the general election against the GOP nominee add uncertainty. With the primary weeks away and no dominant polling or spending breakout, trader pricing reflects a closely contested race in which modest shifts in turnout or late momentum could alter the margin.
Primary elections in Michigan are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
マーケット開始日： Jul 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
音量
$5終了日
2026/08/04マーケット開始日
Jul 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary elections in Michigan are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The July 5 suspension of Mallory McMorrow’s campaign has narrowed the August 4 Democratic primary to a head-to-head contest between progressive Abdul El-Sayed and moderate Rep. Haley Stevens. El-Sayed holds a polling edge and key progressive endorsements, including from Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, while Stevens benefits from establishment backing and a substantial advertising advantage linked in part to pro-Israel groups. Policy contrasts on healthcare, immigration, and unconditional aid to Israel remain central in a state with a large Arab American electorate, and electability debates in the general election against the GOP nominee add uncertainty. With the primary weeks away and no dominant polling or spending breakout, trader pricing reflects a closely contested race in which modest shifts in turnout or late momentum could alter the margin.
Primary elections in Michigan are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
音量
$5終了日
2026/08/04マーケット開始日
Jul 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The July 5 suspension of Mallory McMorrow’s campaign has narrowed the August 4 Democratic primary to a head-to-head contest between progressive Abdul El-Sayed and moderate Rep. Haley Stevens. El-Sayed holds a polling edge and key progressive endorsements, including from Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, while Stevens benefits from establishment backing and a substantial advertising advantage linked in part to pro-Israel groups. Policy contrasts on healthcare, immigration, and unconditional aid to Israel remain central in a state with a large Arab American electorate, and electability debates in the general election against the GOP nominee add uncertainty. With the primary weeks away and no dominant polling or spending breakout, trader pricing reflects a closely contested race in which modest shifts in turnout or late momentum could alter the margin.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問