At a University of Chicago event, David Axelrod asks AOC about a 2028 run;

she replies “My ambition is to change the country,” leaving the door open but not committing, which caused the

Shapiro enters legal battle to protect abortion pill access by mail, reinforcing progressive credentials amid national culture wars

Josh Shapiro rises to 3%1%

His active stance on abortion rights and health care issues positioned him as a progressive leader, potentially improving his profile among Democratic voters ahead of 2028.

Axios details Vance’s mid‑term “fly‑over” campaign and early‑state Iowa visits, positioning him as a 2028 contender – Direct campaigning in a key primary state signaled concrete

JD Vance rises to 19%1%

Axios details Vance’s mid‑term “fly‑over” campaign and early‑state Iowa visits, positioning him as a 2028 contender – Direct campaigning in a key primary state signaled concrete groundwork, stabilizing the

The Hill reports that Carlson’s potential 2028 bid briefly climbs to 7 % on prediction markets after a surge of commentary, but the lack of a formal campaign quickly stalls the

Tucker Carlson dips to 3%1%

The Hill reports that Carlson’s potential 2028 bid briefly climbs to 7 % on prediction markets after a surge of commentary, but the lack of a formal campaign quickly stalls the rally

The Guardian publishes an opinion piece questioning whether Carlson is “eyeing a 2028 presidential run,” highlighting his coyness and recent media moves, which nudges the market

Tucker Carlson rises to 4%1%

The Guardian publishes an opinion piece questioning whether Carlson is “eyeing a 2028 presidential run,” highlighting his coyness and recent media moves, which nudges the market slightly higher

The Guardian reports that Carlson’s “marriage of convenience” with Donald Trump is ending, with Carlson admitting he is “tormented” by his past support for Trump, signaling a

Tucker Carlson dips to 3%1%

The Guardian reports that Carlson’s “marriage of convenience” with Donald Trump is ending, with Carlson admitting he is “tormented” by his past support for Trump, signaling a clear break from the MAGA base

The Christian Science Monitor highlights AOC’s growing “star power” and her appearance with Sanders and New York mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani at a rally, suggesting she is

The Christian Science Monitor highlights AOC’s growing “star power” and her appearance with Sanders and New York mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani at a rally, suggesting she is emerging as a serious contender for the Democratic nomination

Euronews reports Vance will publish a new book “Communion” in June, seen as a platform for a 2028 launch – The book announcement was interpreted as a strategic move to raise his

JD Vance jumps to 30%6%

Euronews reports Vance will publish a new book “Communion” in June, seen as a platform for a 2028 launch – The book announcement was interpreted as a strategic move to raise his national profile ahead of a possible presidential campaign, lifting the market again.

Axios notes Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene publicly urges Carlson to run for president and defends him against criticism over his stance on the Iran war, giving the outcome a brief

Tucker Carlson rises to 4%2%

Axios notes Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene publicly urges Carlson to run for president and defends him against criticism over his stance on the Iran war, giving the outcome a brief lift

Speculation intensifies around Rubio and Vance as leading Republican contenders for 2028, with Trump declining to endorse either, reinforcing market consensus that Trump’s chances

Donald Trump dips to 2%1%

Speculation intensifies around Rubio and Vance as leading Republican contenders for 2028, with Trump declining to endorse either, reinforcing market consensus that Trump’s chances are low for 2028

CNN interview: Newsom says he won’t block Kamala Harris and hints at a possible 2028 showdown

Gavin Newsom dips to 20%1%

In a televised interview Newsom acknowledged the possibility of facing Harris in the Democratic primary, tempering speculation and pulling his odds down slightly.

Politico profile notes Vance’s “verbal attack on Ukraine’s leader” and growing global attention, fueling speculation about a 2028 bid – The article highlighted Vance’s

JD Vance drops to 24%8%

Politico profile notes Vance’s “verbal attack on Ukraine’s leader” and growing global attention, fueling speculation about a 2028 bid – The article highlighted Vance’s controversial foreign‑policy stance, prompting backlash and a sharp drop in his perceived electability.

Shapiro grows national donor network with $23 million raised in 2025, including major contributions from Bloomberg and Murdoch family members

Josh Shapiro rises to 4%2%

Fundraising success and expanding donor base indicated growing national ambitions, briefly boosting market confidence in his presidential prospects.

Newsom delivers a sharp critique of Trump at the World Economic Forum in Davos

Gavin Newsom dips to 21%2%

While the high‑profile speech raised his visibility, the aggressive tone and focus on Trump’s alleged election‑rigging drew mixed reactions, causing a modest

Josh Shapiro announces 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial reelection bid, signaling focus on state politics over immediate presidential campaign

By formally launching his reelection campaign, Shapiro emphasized consolidating power in Pennsylvania, which may have reduced market expectations for a 2028 presidential run in the short term.

Rubio gives year‑end foreign‑policy briefing, emphasizing Gaza recovery and Venezuela deterrence – The high‑visibility press conference highlighted Rubio’s leadership on major

Marco Rubio jumps to 10%6%

Rubio gives year‑end foreign‑policy briefing, emphasizing Gaza recovery and Venezuela deterrence – The high‑visibility press conference highlighted Rubio’s leadership on major international crises, reviving market optimism ahead of the new year.

Axios reported that Democratic operatives were viewing Newsom as the early 2028 frontrunner, labeling him “the guy to beat,” which pushed market confidence to its highest level of

Gavin Newsom rises to 23%1%

Axios reported that Democratic operatives were viewing Newsom as the early 2028 frontrunner, labeling him “the guy to beat,” which pushed market confidence to its highest level of the period

Supreme Court hears case on Vance’s 2024 campaign‑finance lawsuit, questioning whether his current ambiguity makes the case moot – The high‑profile hearing suggested Vance might

JD Vance rises to 32%4%

Supreme Court hears case on Vance’s 2024 campaign‑finance lawsuit, questioning whether his current ambiguity makes the case moot – The high‑profile hearing suggested Vance might soon clarify his ambitions, pushing optimism that he could enter the 2028 race and driving the

Polls show Trump’s approval rating underwater with growing Democratic momentum and GOP figures like JD Vance and Marco Rubio gaining prominence as potential 2028 candidates,

Donald Trump dips to 3%2%

Polls show Trump’s approval rating underwater with growing Democratic momentum and GOP figures like JD Vance and Marco Rubio gaining prominence as potential 2028 candidates, further depressing Trump's market odds

The Guardian lists AOC among “potential Democratic contenders for 2028,” raising her profile alongside Gov.

Newsom and former VP Harris and prompting a short‑term

Newsom’s book‑tour stop in New Hampshire fuels 2028‑presidential speculation

Gavin Newsom rises to 23%1%

A scheduled appearance in New Hampshire for his memoir “Young Man in a Hurry” was widely reported as a strategic move to court early‑primary voters, nudging his market

Axios reports that AOC’s team poured millions into digital ads and grassroots fundraising, positioning her for a 2028 presidential or Senate bid, sparking a modest rise in her

Axios reports that AOC’s team poured millions into digital ads and grassroots fundraising, positioning her for a 2028 presidential or Senate bid, sparking a modest rise in her market

Axios reports that Ocasio‑Cortez’s team is positioning her for either a 2028 presidential run or a Senate seat, noting massive digital‑ad spend and new donor lists, which lifts

Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez dips to 7%1%

Axios reports that Ocasio‑Cortez’s team is positioning her for either a 2028 presidential run or a Senate seat, noting massive digital‑ad spend and new donor lists, which lifts her perceived viability and pushes the

Prop 50 passes, giving Democrats extra congressional seats and boosting Newsom’s national profile

Gavin Newsom jumps to 19%5%

Voters approved Proposition 50 on Nov 4, a measure drafted by Newsom that shifts redistricting power to the Democratic‑controlled legislature, promising up to five additional House seats and positioning him as a key Democratic strategist ahead of 2028.

Shapiro criticizes GOP food-aid cuts and SNAP legislation signed by Trump, positioning himself as a defender of social programs

Josh Shapiro dips to 3%4%

Shapiro publicly opposed the Trump administration’s SNAP overhaul, engaging in partisan battles that may have polarized perceptions of his electability nationally.

Newsom warns of a “Trump 2028” third‑term plot and unveils a special California redistricting election

Gavin Newsom rises to 14%4%

The governor’s public claim that Donald Trump was planning a third‑term run and his call for a November 4 statewide ballot on redistricting put Newsom at the center of a national election‑integrity debate, sparking a +4‑point jump in his 2028‑president odds.

Vance tells NBC’s Meet the Press he is “focused on doing a good job” and pushes back on 2028 speculation – The interview gave voters a clear signal that Vance was not yet

JD Vance jumps to 28%9%

Vance tells NBC’s Meet the Press he is “focused on doing a good job” and pushes back on 2028 speculation – The interview gave voters a clear signal that Vance was not yet committing to a run, but the very fact that he was asked sparked speculation and lifted his perceived viability as a future candidate.

Trump’s public statements about potentially running for a third term and quipping about canceling the 2028 elections if the U.S.

Donald Trump drops to 18%7%

is at war raise legal and political questions, causing initial market uncertainty and a

Trump names Rubio acting National Security Advisor while retaining State Secretary role – Holding both the State Secretary and interim National Security Advisor posts amplified

Marco Rubio rises to 12%4%

Trump names Rubio acting National Security Advisor while retaining State Secretary role – Holding both the State Secretary and interim National Security Advisor posts amplified Rubio’s influence on security matters, spurring a sharp

Arson attack on Governor Josh Shapiro’s mansion during Passover, raising concerns about his personal security and political violence risks

Shapiro and his family survived an arson attack at the governor's mansion, highlighting the dangers he faces and possibly dampening enthusiasm for a national run amid security concerns.

Rubio announces visa‑restriction policy targeting Thai officials over Uyghur forced returns – The new visa‑restriction measure was widely reported as a tough‑on‑human‑rights

Marco Rubio rises to 11%4%

Rubio announces visa‑restriction policy targeting Thai officials over Uyghur forced returns – The new visa‑restriction measure was widely reported as a tough‑on‑human‑rights stance, raising Rubio’s foreign‑policy stature and prompting a noticeable market uptick.

Rubio confirmed as U.S. Secretary of State, boosting his national profile – The Senate’s unanimous 99‑0 vote confirmed Rubio as Secretary of State in the second Trump term, giving

Marco Rubio rises to 7%3%

Rubio confirmed as U.S. Secretary of State, boosting his national profile – The Senate’s unanimous 99‑0 vote confirmed Rubio as Secretary of State in the second Trump term, giving him a top‑tier cabinet position and increasing speculation that he could be a future presidential contender.