**Persistent above-target inflation remains the dominant driver of RBNZ pricing ahead of the 28 October Monetary Policy Review.** Annual CPI accelerated to 4.1% in the June 2026 quarter from 3.1% in March, the highest reading in two years, with the bank now projecting a 4.3% peak in September before a return to the 2% midpoint only in mid-2027. This trajectory has reinforced expectations for policy tightening after the OCR was held at 2.25% in May, even as the committee acknowledged weaker consumption, investment, and downgraded GDP growth. Market-implied odds—60.5% for no change and 28.5% for a 25 basis point hike—reflect the balance between the bank’s explicit signal that rates will rise this year and uncertainty over the precise timing of the first move. The September Monetary Policy Statement and intervening data releases on inflation, wages, and activity will serve as the key catalysts that could shift probabilities between holding and a modest increase, while larger moves in either direction remain heavily discounted given the gradual nature of the projected path back to target.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日No change 61%
25 bps increase 29%
50+ bps decrease 2.5%
25 bps decrease 2.4%
$10,424 Vol.
$10,424 Vol.
2026/10/28
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
2%
No change
61%
25 bps increase
29%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 61%
25 bps increase 29%
50+ bps decrease 2.5%
25 bps decrease 2.4%
$10,424 Vol.
$10,424 Vol.
2026/10/28
50+ bps decrease
$554 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$447 Vol.
2%
No change
$6,046 Vol.
61%
25 bps increase
$2,972 Vol.
29%
50+ bps increase
$404 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official RBNZ calendar (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Persistent above-target inflation remains the dominant driver of RBNZ pricing ahead of the 28 October Monetary Policy Review.** Annual CPI accelerated to 4.1% in the June 2026 quarter from 3.1% in March, the highest reading in two years, with the bank now projecting a 4.3% peak in September before a return to the 2% midpoint only in mid-2027. This trajectory has reinforced expectations for policy tightening after the OCR was held at 2.25% in May, even as the committee acknowledged weaker consumption, investment, and downgraded GDP growth.
Market-implied odds—60.5% for no change and 28.5% for a 25 basis point hike—reflect the balance between the bank’s explicit signal that rates will rise this year and uncertainty over the precise timing of the first move. The September Monetary Policy Statement and intervening data releases on inflation, wages, and activity will serve as the key catalysts that could shift probabilities between holding and a modest increase, while larger moves in either direction remain heavily discounted given the gradual nature of the projected path back to target.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official RBNZ calendar (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official RBNZ calendar (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Jul 29, 2026, 6:38 PM ET
音量
$10,424終了日
2026/10/28マーケット開始日
Jul 29, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official RBNZ calendar (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Persistent above-target inflation remains the dominant driver of RBNZ pricing ahead of the 28 October Monetary Policy Review.** Annual CPI accelerated to 4.1% in the June 2026 quarter from 3.1% in March, the highest reading in two years, with the bank now projecting a 4.3% peak in September before a return to the 2% midpoint only in mid-2027. This trajectory has reinforced expectations for policy tightening after the OCR was held at 2.25% in May, even as the committee acknowledged weaker consumption, investment, and downgraded GDP growth.
Market-implied odds—60.5% for no change and 28.5% for a 25 basis point hike—reflect the balance between the bank’s explicit signal that rates will rise this year and uncertainty over the precise timing of the first move. The September Monetary Policy Statement and intervening data releases on inflation, wages, and activity will serve as the key catalysts that could shift probabilities between holding and a modest increase, while larger moves in either direction remain heavily discounted given the gradual nature of the projected path back to target.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official RBNZ calendar (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official RBNZ calendar (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
音量
$10,424終了日
2026/10/28マーケット開始日
Jul 29, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent above-target inflation remains the dominant driver of RBNZ pricing ahead of the 28 October Monetary Policy Review.** Annual CPI accelerated to 4.1% in the June 2026 quarter from 3.1% in March, the highest reading in two years, with the bank now projecting a 4.3% peak in September before a return to the 2% midpoint only in mid-2027. This trajectory has reinforced expectations for policy tightening after the OCR was held at 2.25% in May, even as the committee acknowledged weaker consumption, investment, and downgraded GDP growth. Market-implied odds—60.5% for no change and 28.5% for a 25 basis point hike—reflect the balance between the bank’s explicit signal that rates will rise this year and uncertainty over the precise timing of the first move. The September Monetary Policy Statement and intervening data releases on inflation, wages, and activity will serve as the key catalysts that could shift probabilities between holding and a modest increase, while larger moves in either direction remain heavily discounted given the gradual nature of the projected path back to target.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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