Market-implied odds for the Bank of Canada’s October 28 decision show a clear preference for holding the 2.25% overnight rate, with a secondary chance of a 25-basis-point hike. Persistent headline inflation at 3.0% year-over-year in August, driven by elevated global energy prices tied to geopolitical tensions, has lifted near-term rate expectations and produced the 37.5% probability on a modest tightening. However, core measures remain near the 2% target with limited pass-through evident so far, while U.S. tariff uncertainty and a still-fragile domestic recovery continue to weigh against immediate action. Bond-market pricing and economist surveys both highlight the upcoming October CPI release and labor data as the key swing factors that could shift the balance before the decision.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日変更なし 54.2%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 42.9%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き上げ <1%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ <1%
$94,998 Vol.
$94,998 Vol.
2026/10/27
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き上げ
<1%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
43%
変更なし
54%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
<1%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き下げ
<1%
変更なし 54.2%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 42.9%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き上げ <1%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ <1%
$94,998 Vol.
$94,998 Vol.
2026/10/27
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き上げ
$11,799 Vol.
<1%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
$26,804 Vol.
43%
変更なし
$36,947 Vol.
54%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
$15,344 Vol.
<1%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き下げ
$4,105 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.Market-implied odds for the Bank of Canada’s October 28 decision show a clear preference for holding the 2.25% overnight rate, with a secondary chance of a 25-basis-point hike. Persistent headline inflation at 3.0% year-over-year in August, driven by elevated global energy prices tied to geopolitical tensions, has lifted near-term rate expectations and produced the 37.5% probability on a modest tightening. However, core measures remain near the 2% target with limited pass-through evident so far, while U.S. tariff uncertainty and a still-fragile domestic recovery continue to weigh against immediate action. Bond-market pricing and economist surveys both highlight the upcoming October CPI release and labor data as the key swing factors that could shift the balance before the decision.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Jul 15, 2026, 9:50 PM ET
音量
$94,998終了日
2026/10/28マーケット開始日
Jul 15, 2026, 9:50 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.Market-implied odds for the Bank of Canada’s October 28 decision show a clear preference for holding the 2.25% overnight rate, with a secondary chance of a 25-basis-point hike. Persistent headline inflation at 3.0% year-over-year in August, driven by elevated global energy prices tied to geopolitical tensions, has lifted near-term rate expectations and produced the 37.5% probability on a modest tightening. However, core measures remain near the 2% target with limited pass-through evident so far, while U.S. tariff uncertainty and a still-fragile domestic recovery continue to weigh against immediate action. Bond-market pricing and economist surveys both highlight the upcoming October CPI release and labor data as the key swing factors that could shift the balance before the decision.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
音量
$94,998終了日
2026/10/28マーケット開始日
Jul 15, 2026, 9:50 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied odds for the Bank of Canada’s October 28 decision show a clear preference for holding the 2.25% overnight rate, with a secondary chance of a 25-basis-point hike. Persistent headline inflation at 3.0% year-over-year in August, driven by elevated global energy prices tied to geopolitical tensions, has lifted near-term rate expectations and produced the 37.5% probability on a modest tightening. However, core measures remain near the 2% target with limited pass-through evident so far, while U.S. tariff uncertainty and a still-fragile domestic recovery continue to weigh against immediate action. Bond-market pricing and economist surveys both highlight the upcoming October CPI release and labor data as the key swing factors that could shift the balance before the decision.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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