**USMCA extension talks reached a pivotal point on July 1, 2026, when the United States declined to confirm a 16-year renewal during the mandatory joint review under Article 34.7.** Mexico and Canada supported extension, but U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated the agreement would not be renewed in its current form, triggering annual reviews that continue until all parties agree to extend or the pact expires in 2036. The agreement itself remains fully in force with no immediate disruption to tariffs, rules of origin, or dispute mechanisms. This outcome reflects U.S. priorities for revisions on autos, rules of origin, nonmarket inputs, labor enforcement, and supply-chain issues tied to third-country investment. Bilateral negotiating rounds, including a U.S.-Mexico session scheduled for July, have begun but center on concessions rather than a clean trilateral extension. Historical patterns of U.S. trade reviews and current administration signals indicate extensions typically require substantive changes, making a swift 2026 renewal unlikely amid ongoing leverage dynamics and stakeholder consultations. Markets price the probability of extension this year low, consistent with the procedural shift to annual reviews and the compressed timeline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
21% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
はい
21% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**USMCA extension talks reached a pivotal point on July 1, 2026, when the United States declined to confirm a 16-year renewal during the mandatory joint review under Article 34.7.** Mexico and Canada supported extension, but U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated the agreement would not be renewed in its current form, triggering annual reviews that continue until all parties agree to extend or the pact expires in 2036. The agreement itself remains fully in force with no immediate disruption to tariffs, rules of origin, or dispute mechanisms.
This outcome reflects U.S. priorities for revisions on autos, rules of origin, nonmarket inputs, labor enforcement, and supply-chain issues tied to third-country investment. Bilateral negotiating rounds, including a U.S.-Mexico session scheduled for July, have begun but center on concessions rather than a clean trilateral extension. Historical patterns of U.S. trade reviews and current administration signals indicate extensions typically require substantive changes, making a swift 2026 renewal unlikely amid ongoing leverage dynamics and stakeholder consultations. Markets price the probability of extension this year low, consistent with the procedural shift to annual reviews and the compressed timeline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
音量
$9,924終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**USMCA extension talks reached a pivotal point on July 1, 2026, when the United States declined to confirm a 16-year renewal during the mandatory joint review under Article 34.7.** Mexico and Canada supported extension, but U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated the agreement would not be renewed in its current form, triggering annual reviews that continue until all parties agree to extend or the pact expires in 2036. The agreement itself remains fully in force with no immediate disruption to tariffs, rules of origin, or dispute mechanisms.
This outcome reflects U.S. priorities for revisions on autos, rules of origin, nonmarket inputs, labor enforcement, and supply-chain issues tied to third-country investment. Bilateral negotiating rounds, including a U.S.-Mexico session scheduled for July, have begun but center on concessions rather than a clean trilateral extension. Historical patterns of U.S. trade reviews and current administration signals indicate extensions typically require substantive changes, making a swift 2026 renewal unlikely amid ongoing leverage dynamics and stakeholder consultations. Markets price the probability of extension this year low, consistent with the procedural shift to annual reviews and the compressed timeline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$9,924終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**USMCA extension talks reached a pivotal point on July 1, 2026, when the United States declined to confirm a 16-year renewal during the mandatory joint review under Article 34.7.** Mexico and Canada supported extension, but U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated the agreement would not be renewed in its current form, triggering annual reviews that continue until all parties agree to extend or the pact expires in 2036. The agreement itself remains fully in force with no immediate disruption to tariffs, rules of origin, or dispute mechanisms. This outcome reflects U.S. priorities for revisions on autos, rules of origin, nonmarket inputs, labor enforcement, and supply-chain issues tied to third-country investment. Bilateral negotiating rounds, including a U.S.-Mexico session scheduled for July, have begun but center on concessions rather than a clean trilateral extension. Historical patterns of U.S. trade reviews and current administration signals indicate extensions typically require substantive changes, making a swift 2026 renewal unlikely amid ongoing leverage dynamics and stakeholder consultations. Markets price the probability of extension this year low, consistent with the procedural shift to annual reviews and the compressed timeline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問