The USMCA's first mandatory joint review concluded on July 1, 2026, without the United States confirming extension for another 16-year term. The Trump administration instead opted for ongoing annual reviews while the pact remains in force until its 2036 sunset, citing concerns over trade imbalances, rules of origin in autos, dairy access, and enforcement of labor and environmental provisions. Canada and Mexico had both sought full renewal, creating a narrow path for later consensus if bilateral negotiations scheduled for July yield targeted amendments. This outcome leaves the agreement operational but subject to repeated scrutiny, with trader sentiment reflecting the balance between entrenched North American supply chains favoring continuity and U.S. leverage for revisions that could still produce an extension before the next review cycle.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/12/31
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The USMCA's first mandatory joint review concluded on July 1, 2026, without the United States confirming extension for another 16-year term. The Trump administration instead opted for ongoing annual reviews while the pact remains in force until its 2036 sunset, citing concerns over trade imbalances, rules of origin in autos, dairy access, and enforcement of labor and environmental provisions. Canada and Mexico had both sought full renewal, creating a narrow path for later consensus if bilateral negotiations scheduled for July yield targeted amendments. This outcome leaves the agreement operational but subject to repeated scrutiny, with trader sentiment reflecting the balance between entrenched North American supply chains favoring continuity and U.S. leverage for revisions that could still produce an extension before the next review cycle.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
音量
$189終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The USMCA's first mandatory joint review concluded on July 1, 2026, without the United States confirming extension for another 16-year term. The Trump administration instead opted for ongoing annual reviews while the pact remains in force until its 2036 sunset, citing concerns over trade imbalances, rules of origin in autos, dairy access, and enforcement of labor and environmental provisions. Canada and Mexico had both sought full renewal, creating a narrow path for later consensus if bilateral negotiations scheduled for July yield targeted amendments. This outcome leaves the agreement operational but subject to repeated scrutiny, with trader sentiment reflecting the balance between entrenched North American supply chains favoring continuity and U.S. leverage for revisions that could still produce an extension before the next review cycle.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$189終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The USMCA's first mandatory joint review concluded on July 1, 2026, without the United States confirming extension for another 16-year term. The Trump administration instead opted for ongoing annual reviews while the pact remains in force until its 2036 sunset, citing concerns over trade imbalances, rules of origin in autos, dairy access, and enforcement of labor and environmental provisions. Canada and Mexico had both sought full renewal, creating a narrow path for later consensus if bilateral negotiations scheduled for July yield targeted amendments. This outcome leaves the agreement operational but subject to repeated scrutiny, with trader sentiment reflecting the balance between entrenched North American supply chains favoring continuity and U.S. leverage for revisions that could still produce an extension before the next review cycle.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問