Doug Ford’s reaffirmed commitment to lead the Progressive Conservative Party into the next provincial election underpins trader consensus that he will remain leader through December 31. At the January 2026 party convention, Ford highlighted his government’s record and signaled readiness for a fourth term, with no subsequent caucus revolt, leadership review, or resignation signals emerging. Recent controversies, including the grounded government jet purchase and changes to freedom-of-information rules, have contributed to a modest decline in PC support to 39 percent in May polling, yet the party retains a narrow lead over the leaderless Liberals. Absent major internal dissent or external pressure that would typically force an early exit, the current stability sustains the high probability assigned to continuity.