Strong delegate support at the January 2026 Conservative convention in Calgary has anchored trader expectations that Pierre Poilievre will remain leader through year-end. After the party’s 2025 election loss, an automatic leadership review required more than 50 percent of delegates to trigger a contest; instead, Poilievre secured 87.4 percent approval in the vote. No subsequent caucus revolt, constitutional challenge, or scheduled review has emerged in the ensuing months. As Leader of the Opposition, Poilievre continues to set the party’s parliamentary agenda and public messaging into summer 2026, with internal focus shifting toward policy positioning against the Carney government rather than succession. Absent new party rules or extraordinary events before December 31, the current consensus reflects limited near-term pathways for removal.