SpaceX’s rapid V3 Starship progress in 2026 underpins the 71.5% market-implied probability of full reusability before 2028. Recent Flights 12 and 13 demonstrated reliable Raptor 3 performance, Starlink satellite deployment, in-space engine relight, and an intact heat shield after controlled reentry, while multiple prior booster tower catches validated Super Heavy recovery. Elon Musk has targeted an upper-stage tower catch on Flight 14 and the first ship reflight by late 2026 or early 2027, accelerating the path to rapid, repeated reuse of both stages. Remaining hurdles include achieving orbital flight, demonstrating in-orbit refueling, and confirming turnaround times without refurbishment, yet the pace of iterative testing and hardware maturation supports trader consensus that these milestones will occur well ahead of the 2028 deadline.