Labour's crushing defeats in early May 2026 local elections, losing control of 25 English councils and trailing Reform UK (28%) and Greens in polls with just 16% support, have ignited a leadership crisis for Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Over 60 Labour MPs now demand his resignation or a set departure timetable, with frontbench resignations and Health Secretary Wes Streeting poised to launch a formal challenge possibly as soon as May 14. Starmer defiantly told his cabinet he will continue governing, but trader sentiment hinges on the parliamentary party's cohesion, potential no-confidence motions, and Starmer's ability to stabilize amid historically low approval ratings and opposition surges.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日| LabourList tracker shows the resignation‑call count stabilises at ~100 MPs;
analysts note the market has now
Analysts note that Starmer’s appointment of Gordon Brown as a special envoy does little to stem the mounting pressure, keeping the “May 15” probability low
Analysts note that Starmer’s appointment of Gordon Brown as a special envoy does little to stem the mounting pressure, keeping the “May 15” probability low
| Starmer tells his cabinet he will not resign, saying the threshold for a leadership challenge has not been met |
May 15 jumps to 11%6%
| Starmer tells his cabinet he will not resign, saying the threshold for a leadership challenge has not been met |
| Washington Post notes Starmer’s defiant press conference, emphasizing he will stay in office despite growing rebellion |
May 15 drops to 5%6%
| Washington Post notes Starmer’s defiant press conference, emphasizing he will stay in office despite growing rebellion |
| Guardian live‑blog reports 92 Labour MPs now calling for Starmer’s resignation, the highest count since the crisis began |
| Guardian live‑blog reports 92 Labour MPs now calling for Starmer’s resignation, the highest count since the crisis began |
Betting‑sites list Starmer’s resignation odds as “odds‑on” for 2026, with implied probability near 87% – The surge in market odds reinforced traders’ expectations of a possible
May 31 drops to 21%7%
Betting‑sites list Starmer’s resignation odds as “odds‑on” for 2026, with implied probability near 87% – The surge in market odds reinforced traders’ expectations of a possible exit, stabilising the
Additional MP Josh Simons joins the resignation calls, raising the number of Labour MPs demanding Starmer set a departure timetable
May 31 drops to 21%11%
Additional MP Josh Simons joins the resignation calls, raising the number of Labour MPs demanding Starmer set a departure timetable
The Peter Mandelson vetting controversy erupts in Commons, with Starmer claiming no prior knowledge and former Foreign Office chief Olly Robbins testifying, intensifying pressure
May 31 plunges to 32%25%
The Peter Mandelson vetting controversy erupts in Commons, with Starmer claiming no prior knowledge and former Foreign Office chief Olly Robbins testifying, intensifying pressure on the government
Starmer meets cabinet, receives backing from a minority of MPs
May 31 plunges to 21%15%
In a later cabinet session Starmer received verbal support from a handful of MPs and ministers, reinforcing his position and pulling the market back down to the current 21% level.
More than 40 Labour MPs and over 100 councillors publicly call for Starmer’s resignation, reigniting doubts after his speech
More than 40 Labour MPs and over 100 councillors publicly call for Starmer’s resignation, reigniting doubts after his speech
Front‑bench minister Vicky Foxcroft resigns over £5 bn benefits cut, joining a wave of rebel Labour MPs – The resignation signalled a deepening split within Starmer’s cabinet,
May 31 plunges to 28%41%
Front‑bench minister Vicky Foxcroft resigns over £5 bn benefits cut, joining a wave of rebel Labour MPs – The resignation signalled a deepening split within Starmer’s cabinet, prompting a rapid sell‑off and a sharp drop in the “Yes”
LabourList tracker shows 92 MPs now demanding Starmer’s resignation
May 31 jumps to 36%8%
A LabourList update recorded 92 MPs calling for Starmer to quit, but also noted a growing “silent majority” of backers, providing mixed signals that nudged the
Four senior ministers (including Jess Phillips and Zubir Ahmed) resign, and the cabinet meets amid a deepening split, pulling the
December 31 plunges to 64%22%
Four senior ministers (including Jess Phillips and Zubir Ahmed) resign, and the cabinet meets amid a deepening split, pulling the
| Starmer survives a cabinet split;
June 30 plunges to 32%42%
he re‑appoints new PPSs and pledges to stay on, causing a sharp|
| Four ministers (including Jess Phillips and Darren Jones) resign and issue letters demanding Starmer step down |
May 15 plunges to 5%19%
| Four ministers (including Jess Phillips and Darren Jones) resign and issue letters demanding Starmer step down |
Starmer publicly refuses to resign and vows to fight any challenge
May 31 plunges to 28%41%
At a cabinet meeting Starmer declared he would not step down and said the leadership‑challenge threshold had not been met, a defiant stance that halted the rebellion and caused the odds to tumble sharply.
| More than 70 Labour MPs publicly call for Starmer to step down after a second failed leadership‑stability speech ||
June 30 surges to 74%27%
| More than 70 Labour MPs publicly call for Starmer to step down after a second failed leadership‑stability speech ||
Starmer delivers a national televised speech attempting to rally MPs and quash the leadership revolt, temporarily boosting market confidence
May 15 surges to 24%21%
Starmer delivers a national televised speech attempting to rally MPs and quash the leadership revolt, temporarily boosting market confidence
Angela Rayner, Starmer’s chief rival, addresses the CWU conference, signalling a possible challenger and causing a sharp market swing
May 15 plunges to 5%19%
Angela Rayner, Starmer’s chief rival, addresses the CWU conference, signalling a possible challenger and causing a sharp market swing
Prime Minister Starmer addresses the nation and Parliament, pledging to fight on and attempting to rally cabinet support after the election defeat
May 31 drops to 57%12%
Prime Minister Starmer addresses the nation and Parliament, pledging to fight on and attempting to rally cabinet support after the election defeat
Starmer delivers emergency national address after disastrous local election results, warning of a possible Labour leadership challenge – The speech underscored internal party
May 31 surges to 69%25%
Starmer delivers emergency national address after disastrous local election results, warning of a possible Labour leadership challenge – The speech underscored internal party turmoil and triggered the market’s peak as traders
Starmer announces UK will host virtual meeting of 35 nations on reopening the Strait of Hormuz amid the US‑Israeli‑Iran war – The bold foreign‑policy move heightened the
May 31 surges to 44%25%
Starmer announces UK will host virtual meeting of 35 nations on reopening the Strait of Hormuz amid the US‑Israeli‑Iran war – The bold foreign‑policy move heightened the perception of a looming crisis that could destabilise Starmer’s premiership, pushing the “Yes” probability up sharply.
Financial Times notes that senior ministers publicly back Starmer, but the lingering uncertainty keeps the “Yes”
December 31 rises to 86%2%
Financial Times notes that senior ministers publicly back Starmer, but the lingering uncertainty keeps the “Yes”
More than 70 Labour MPs publicly call for Keir Starmer to resign after his leadership speech flops, with two senior cabinet ministers (Yvette Cooper and Shabana Mahmood) urging an
May 31 surges to 44%25%
More than 70 Labour MPs publicly call for Keir Starmer to resign after his leadership speech flops, with two senior cabinet ministers (Yvette Cooper and Shabana Mahmood) urging an orderly transition
Four government aides (PPSs) resign and join the rebellion, signalling a deepening crisis within the administration
May 31 jumps to 56%12%
Four government aides (PPSs) resign and join the rebellion, signalling a deepening crisis within the administration
ITV News reports that four senior ministers, led by the Home Secretary, meet Starmer in Number 10 to demand a resignation timetable, further amplifying speculation of a leadership
May 31 jumps to 69%13%
ITV News reports that four senior ministers, led by the Home Secretary, meet Starmer in Number 10 to demand a resignation timetable, further amplifying speculation of a leadership change
ITV tracks at least 78 MPs prepared to oust Starmer, indicating the threshold for a formal leadership challenge is close, which pushes the market back down slightly as traders
May 31 drops to 59%10%
ITV tracks at least 78 MPs prepared to oust Starmer, indicating the threshold for a formal leadership challenge is close, which pushes the market back down slightly as traders reassess timing
| Starmer delivers a televised speech trying to shore up his leadership;
May 15 surges to 24%21%
more than 70 Labour MPs call for his resignation immediately after |
Senior cabinet ministers join the revolt, raising calls for Starmer’s timetable
May 31 surges to 69%25%
On the same day senior figures – Yvette Cooper (Foreign Secretary), Shabana Mahmood (Home Secretary), John Healey (Defence Secretary) and Deputy PM David Lammy – met Starmer and pressed for a resignation timetable, pushing market confidence that Starmer could be ousted to a peak.
Four ministerial aides quit and senior cabinet ministers (Yvette Cooper, Shabana Mahmood) join calls for an orderly transition, intensifying the rebellion
May 31 drops to 57%12%
Four ministerial aides quit and senior cabinet ministers (Yvette Cooper, Shabana Mahmood) join calls for an orderly transition, intensifying the rebellion
Starmer delivers a “reset” speech in Waterloo that fails to quell dissent;
May 31 surges to 69%25%
more than 70 Labour MPs publicly call for his resignation
Starmer delivers a “reset” speech at Coin Street, Waterloo, which is widely criticised as ineffective;
December 31 surges to 86%32%
within hours the market spikes to an all‑time high as traders
Senior cabinet ministers Yvette Cooper and Shabana Mahmood publicly urge Starmer to set a timetable for his departure;
June 30 jumps to 74%5%
over 70 MPs now demand his resignation
Gordon Brown is appointed special envoy to steady the government after the local‑election defeat, but his involvement is seen as a sign that Starmer’s position is untenable
December 31 rises to 86%1%
Gordon Brown is appointed special envoy to steady the government after the local‑election defeat, but his involvement is seen as a sign that Starmer’s position is untenable
Market spikes to an all‑time high (86 %) after reports that more than 90 Labour MPs have now called for Starmer’s resignation
December 31 surges to 86%22%
Market spikes to an all‑time high (86 %) after reports that more than 90 Labour MPs have now called for Starmer’s resignation
Four junior ministers resign and 70+ Labour MPs call for Starster to quit
May 31 surges to 44%25%
Four junior front‑benchers (including a PPS from Health, Environment, Cabinet Office and Justice) quit and publicly urged Starmer to step down, while more than 70 Labour MPs added their names to a resignation‑tracker, signalling a rapid escalation of internal pressure.
GB News quoted Starmer insisting he would not “walk away” despite the mounting pressure, which halted the
May 15 drops to 5%11%
GB News quoted Starmer insisting he would not “walk away” despite the mounting pressure, which halted the
Backbench MP Catherine West issues a formal ultimatum to the cabinet, saying she will begin gathering the 81 signatures needed for a leadership challenge if Starmer does not step
May 31 surges to 69%25%
Backbench MP Catherine West issues a formal ultimatum to the cabinet, saying she will begin gathering the 81 signatures needed for a leadership challenge if Starmer does not step aside
Sky News highlights a surge in public polls showing Labour’s support falling below 20 %, reigniting resignation speculation
December 31 jumps to 71%6%
Sky News highlights a surge in public polls showing Labour’s support falling below 20 %, reigniting resignation speculation
| Starmer meets with dissenting ministers at AFC Wimbledon;
May 15 drops to 3%10%
junior ministers Zubir Ahmed and others announce they will resign |
More than 60 MPs call for Starmer to quit as pressure mounts;
June 30 surges to 69%49%
media reports suggest a leadership showdown is near
The Irish Times reports that over 60 MPs have now called for Starmer’s departure and that a leadership‑challenge “if‑not‑when” narrative dominates Westminster, pushing market
December 31 plunges to 54%17%
The Irish Times reports that over 60 MPs have now called for Starmer’s departure and that a leadership‑challenge “if‑not‑when” narrative dominates Westminster, pushing market sentiment to a new high
Gilt‑yield spike follows the weekend resignation of Starmer’s chief of staff and the fallout from the Mandelson controversy, pushing markets to
December 31 surges to 84%30%
Gilt‑yield spike follows the weekend resignation of Starmer’s chief of staff and the fallout from the Mandelson controversy, pushing markets to
The Standard reported that London Labour MPs called for Starmer to resign to “save Britain from Nigel Farage” after the local‑election losses
May 15 jumps to 16%5%
The Standard reported that London Labour MPs called for Starmer to resign to “save Britain from Nigel Farage” after the local‑election losses
Catherine West says she will trigger a Labour leadership contest if no cabinet minister challenges Starmer
May 31 surges to 44%25%
Catherine West says she will trigger a Labour leadership contest if no cabinet minister challenges Starmer
More than 100 Labour councillors signed a letter demanding Starmer set a timetable for his departure
May 15 rises to 11%3%
More than 100 Labour councillors signed a letter demanding Starmer set a timetable for his departure
Labour MP Catherine West announced she would trigger a leadership contest if no cabinet minister challenged Starmer by Monday
May 15 rises to 8%3%
Labour MP Catherine West announced she would trigger a leadership contest if no cabinet minister challenged Starmer by Monday
Sadiq Khan warns Labour could face “terminal decline” in London unless Starmer steps down, cementing the market’s low‑probability view of his staying in office
June 30 rises to 18%2%
Sadiq Khan warns Labour could face “terminal decline” in London unless Starmer steps down, cementing the market’s low‑probability view of his staying in office
Labour suffers heavy local‑election defeats, losing hundreds of council seats to Reform UK and prompting internal dissent
May 15 drops to 8%9%
Labour suffers heavy local‑election defeats, losing hundreds of council seats to Reform UK and prompting internal dissent
Angela Rayner resigns as Deputy Prime Minister, prompting a cabinet reshuffle and further eroding confidence in Starmer’s government
June 30 dips to 16%2%
Angela Rayner resigns as Deputy Prime Minister, prompting a cabinet reshuffle and further eroding confidence in Starmer’s government
Labour suffers a crushing defeat in the May 2026 local and regional elections;
June 30 plunges to 18%22%
MPs and major unions break ranks and demand Starmer’s resignation
Free‑bets analysis notes that despite the Mandelson turmoil, polling still shows Labour trailing, keeping the “out by 30 June” odds low and stable at 42%
June 30 dips to 42%1%
Free‑bets analysis notes that despite the Mandelson turmoil, polling still shows Labour trailing, keeping the “out by 30 June” odds low and stable at 42%
The Telegraph reported that 39 Labour MPs signed an open letter demanding Starmer’s resignation following the disastrous local‑election results
May 15 drops to 3%8%
The Telegraph reported that 39 Labour MPs signed an open letter demanding Starmer’s resignation following the disastrous local‑election results
Back‑bench MP Catherine West issues an ultimatum to the cabinet, threatening a formal leadership challenge unless Starmer steps aside
May 15 drops to 3%5%
Back‑bench MP Catherine West issues an ultimatum to the cabinet, threatening a formal leadership challenge unless Starmer steps aside
Labour suffers massive losses in the UK local elections, prompting dozens of MPs and councillors to call for Starmer’s resignation
May 31 surges to 44%25%
Labour suffers massive losses in the UK local elections, prompting dozens of MPs and councillors to call for Starmer’s resignation
Reform UK wins hundreds of seats in former Labour heartlands;
December 31 plunges to 49%22%
senior Labour MPs call for Starmer to step down | The electoral blow‑out and mounting internal pressure triggered a sharp sell‑off, pulling the “Yes” probability back down to current levels. |
No‑confidence motions fail to materialise in Commons; Starmer announces cabinet reshuffle to retain unity
3†L1-L4 dips to 10%1%
The absence of a formal challenge and a reshuffle aimed at stabilising the government gave traders a modest reason to ease the “out” probability.
Labour suffers massive losses in the May 8 local elections, surrendering hundreds of council seats to Reform UK and prompting backbench MP Catherine West to issue an ultimatum for
December 31 surges to 85%31%
Labour suffers massive losses in the May 8 local elections, surrendering hundreds of council seats to Reform UK and prompting backbench MP Catherine West to issue an ultimatum for Starmer to step aside
Telegraph poll of 23 000 respondents showed 81 % called for Starmer’s resignation after the local‑election disaster
May 15 rises to 5%2%
Telegraph poll of 23 000 respondents showed 81 % called for Starmer’s resignation after the local‑election disaster
Labour suffers heavy losses in local elections; Greens win Gorton & Denton seat
10†L1-L4 rises to 11%2%
The poor local‑election performance was interpreted as a warning sign for Starmer’s electoral appeal, briefly lifting “out” odds before the market settled.
“Save Starmer” operation announces a reset speech and proposes scrapping manifesto tax pledges, temporarily stabilising the market at 41% Yes
“Save Starmer” operation announces a reset speech and proposes scrapping manifesto tax pledges, temporarily stabilising the market at 41% Yes
No new resignation announcement;
May 15 dips to 7%1%
Labour MPs publicly back Starmer, confirming the low‑probability outlook
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch labels Starmer’s position “untenable” and calls for his immediate resignation, briefly lifting “Yes” odds
May 15 dips to 8%3%
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch labels Starmer’s position “untenable” and calls for his immediate resignation, briefly lifting “Yes” odds
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar calls for Starmer’s resignation, renewing opposition pressure and nudging the
June 30 drops to 41%6%
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar calls for Starmer’s resignation, renewing opposition pressure and nudging the
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey publicly dismisses “moron‑premium” market moves but acknowledges “Damocles sword” over gilt traders as the Mandelson saga continues, keeping
December 31 dips to 67%1%
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey publicly dismisses “moron‑premium” market moves but acknowledges “Damocles sword” over gilt traders as the Mandelson saga continues, keeping the probability of a Starmer exit elevated
Starmer announces internal review of foreign‑office decision‑making – The promise of a review was interpreted as a concession, halting the decline and stabilising the market near
May 15 rises to 11%2%
Starmer announces internal review of foreign‑office decision‑making – The promise of a review was interpreted as a concession, halting the decline and stabilising the market near 11 %. |
| BBC reports that two senior Labour MPs have formally submitted letters of no‑confidence in Starmer, citing the ongoing scandal |
| BBC reports that two senior Labour MPs have formally submitted letters of no‑confidence in Starmer, citing the ongoing scandal |
BBC reports three men charged with targeting Starmer‑linked properties in north London, raising concerns over personal security and possible political fallout
December 31 plunges to 67%20%
BBC reports three men charged with targeting Starmer‑linked properties in north London, raising concerns over personal security and possible political fallout
Starmer publicly announces a formal internal review of the Mandelson appointment, which traders interpret as a concession and pushes the
May 15 rises to 11%3%
Starmer publicly announces a formal internal review of the Mandelson appointment, which traders interpret as a concession and pushes the
Starmer announces a modest policy U‑turn on immigration, gaining a modest bump in public opinion polls and easing immediate resignation speculation
June 30 drops to 41%7%
Starmer announces a modest policy U‑turn on immigration, gaining a modest bump in public opinion polls and easing immediate resignation speculation
BBC reports ongoing parliamentary inquiry into Mandelson vetting – Continued investigative scrutiny kept resignation risk elevated, nudging the
May 15 dips to 9%3%
BBC reports ongoing parliamentary inquiry into Mandelson vetting – Continued investigative scrutiny kept resignation risk elevated, nudging the
BBC News reports that no parliamentary motion or leadership challenge is scheduled for the coming week, and Starmer’s government survives a confidence‑vote, effectively ending the
BBC News reports that no parliamentary motion or leadership challenge is scheduled for the coming week, and Starmer’s government survives a confidence‑vote, effectively ending the short‑term risk of his removal
Starmer survives PMQs, but MPs continue to press for his exit – A brief rebound after the fact‑check reflected lingering uncertainty despite the debunked rumor. |
May 15 rises to 12%4%
Starmer survives PMQs, but MPs continue to press for his exit – A brief rebound after the fact‑check reflected lingering uncertainty despite the debunked rumor. |
Downing Street confirms Starmer will stay Prime Minister beyond the current Parliament – The Independent reported an official Downing Street statement that Starmer will remain in
April 30 dips to 0%1%
Downing Street confirms Starmer will stay Prime Minister beyond the current Parliament – The Independent reported an official Downing Street statement that Starmer will remain in office “throughout this Parliament and beyond,” providing the final reassurance that eliminated any remaining probability of his departure before the market’s cut‑off.
Polymarket data shows “May 15” odds falling to 8 % as the market absorbs the Burnham decision and Starmer’s renewed cabinet support
May 15 drops to 8%10%
The platform’s updated odds reflected traders’ belief that the immediate threat had receded, driving the
Market reaches 0 With no credible resignation news and the cumulative effect of the Mandelson scandal and Robbins dismissal, the market
April 30 dips to 0%1%
Market reaches 0 With no credible resignation news and the cumulative effect of the Mandelson scandal and Robbins dismissal, the market
Polymarket notes a rise to 11 % after Starmer announces an internal review of the foreign‑office decision‑making process
May 15 dips to 8%3%
Polymarket notes a rise to 11 % after Starmer announces an internal review of the foreign‑office decision‑making process
iNews analysis warns Starmer is too weak to stage a reshuffle after the upcoming local elections, citing Angela Rayner’s potential challenge and the risk of backbench rebellion
May 15 dips to 8%3%
iNews analysis warns Starmer is too weak to stage a reshuffle after the upcoming local elections, citing Angela Rayner’s potential challenge and the risk of backbench rebellion
| Senior minister Yvette Cooper publicly urges Starmer to set a resignation timetable |
May 15 drops to 8%9%
| Senior minister Yvette Cooper publicly urges Starmer to set a resignation timetable |
Fact‑check: Supreme Court did not order Starmer to resign – Reuters fact‑check clarified that the UK Supreme Court has no power to force a Prime Minister’s resignation and had
April 30 dips to 1%3%
Fact‑check: Supreme Court did not order Starmer to resign – Reuters fact‑check clarified that the UK Supreme Court has no power to force a Prime Minister’s resignation and had made no such order, quashing a viral claim that could have triggered a market spike toward “Yes”.
Reuters fact‑check debunks a viral claim that the Supreme Court ordered Starmer to resign, removing a false “resignation trigger” and confirming the market’s move to 0% Yes
April 30 dips to 0%1%
Reuters fact‑check debunks a viral claim that the Supreme Court ordered Starmer to resign, removing a false “resignation trigger” and confirming the market’s move to 0% Yes
During PMQs, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch presses Starmer on whether he will reshuffle Chancellor Rachel Reeves;
May 15 drops to 11%7%
Starmer refuses to guarantee her job, implying she may be “toast”
ABC News confirms Parliament’s final vote against an inquiry into Starmer’s handling of the Mandelson appointment, cementing his survival and pushing the market’s “Yes”
April 30 dips to 0%3%
ABC News confirms Parliament’s final vote against an inquiry into Starmer’s handling of the Mandelson appointment, cementing his survival and pushing the market’s “Yes” probability to 0 %
Fact‑check: Supreme Court never ordered Starmer to resign – Disproving a viral claim removed a source of speculative panic, causing the market’s lowest point of the period. |
May 15 drops to 8%11%
Fact‑check: Supreme Court never ordered Starmer to resign – Disproving a viral claim removed a source of speculative panic, causing the market’s lowest point of the period. |
Reuters fact‑check confirms the Supreme Court never ordered Starmer to resign, debunking a viral claim that had briefly revived market optimism for a “Yes” outcome
April 30 dips to 0%1%
Reuters fact‑check confirms the Supreme Court never ordered Starmer to resign, debunking a viral claim that had briefly revived market optimism for a “Yes” outcome
Live PMQs show Starmer surviving a “bruising” Commons day as backbench pressure eases – The Guardian’s briefing noted that despite intense scrutiny, Starmer emerged unscathed from
Live PMQs show Starmer surviving a “bruising” Commons day as backbench pressure eases – The Guardian’s briefing noted that despite intense scrutiny, Starmer emerged unscathed from the session, confirming that no immediate parliamentary action would force him out.
Starmer blocks a Tory‑led attempt to refer him to the Privileges Committee over the Mandelson vetting scandal, further exposing internal fractures (no change, but reinforced
Starmer blocks a Tory‑led attempt to refer him to the Privileges Committee over the Mandelson vetting scandal, further exposing internal fractures (no change, but reinforced downward trend)
UK parliament votes against launching an inquiry into Starmer’s handling of the Mandelson appointment – The decisive vote removed the immediate threat of a parliamentary probe,
April 30 drops to 0%6%
UK parliament votes against launching an inquiry into Starmer’s handling of the Mandelson appointment – The decisive vote removed the immediate threat of a parliamentary probe, sending the market’s “Yes” probability to zero and effectively ending the risk of a resignation before the market’s end date.
Downing Street declares Starmer will remain Prime Minister beyond the current Parliament – The Standard reported an official statement that Starmer will stay in office, removing
April 30 dips to 0%1%
Downing Street declares Starmer will remain Prime Minister beyond the current Parliament – The Standard reported an official statement that Starmer will stay in office, removing any credible trigger for a resignation and pushing the market
MPs vote 223 for – 335 against referring Starmer to the Privileges Committee, decisively rejecting the opposition’s bid to launch an inquiry
April 30 dips to 5%3%
MPs vote 223 for – 335 against referring Starmer to the Privileges Committee, decisively rejecting the opposition’s bid to launch an inquiry
No resignation announcement; Labour MPs publicly back Starmer Following a series of cabinet‑level resignations earlier in the month, senior Labour figures reiterated their
April 30 dips to 1%1%
No resignation announcement; Labour MPs publicly back Starmer Following a series of cabinet‑level resignations earlier in the month, senior Labour figures reiterated their confidence in Starmer, leaving traders with no trigger for a “Yes” outcome
ITV reports the Commons vote outcome and Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch’s warning that Labour MPs will “rue the day” they blocked the referral, underscoring the political stakes
April 30 dips to 3%2%
ITV reports the Commons vote outcome and Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch’s warning that Labour MPs will “rue the day” they blocked the referral, underscoring the political stakes
Parliament schedules vote on a possible Privileges Committee inquiry into whether Starmer misled the House over Peter Mandelson’s appointment
April 30 dips to 11%2%
Parliament schedules vote on a possible Privileges Committee inquiry into whether Starmer misled the House over Peter Mandelson’s appointment
LabourList published a tracker showing a growing list of MPs (including Olivia Blake and Debbie Abrahams) calling for Starmer’s resignation
May 15 dips to 14%2%
LabourList published a tracker showing a growing list of MPs (including Olivia Blake and Debbie Abrahams) calling for Starmer’s resignation
Reuters reports Parliament will vote on a possible inquiry into whether Starmer misled the Commons over the Mandelson appointment – Anticipation of a damaging inquiry briefly
April 30 jumps to 6%5%
Reuters reports Parliament will vote on a possible inquiry into whether Starmer misled the Commons over the Mandelson appointment – Anticipation of a damaging inquiry briefly revived “Yes” odds, producing the small rebound seen on April 23‑25.
Starmer urges Labour MPs to “stick together” ahead of critical Privileges Committee vote – In a televised address, Starmer called for unity as the standards investigation loomed,
Starmer urges Labour MPs to “stick together” ahead of critical Privileges Committee vote – In a televised address, Starmer called for unity as the standards investigation loomed, reinforcing party cohesion and dampening speculation of a resignation.
Starmer rallies cabinet, whips and former PM Gordon Brown to shore up Labour support ahead of the Mandelson vote, describing the day as “critical” for his premiership
April 30 dips to 10%1%
Starmer rallies cabinet, whips and former PM Gordon Brown to shore up Labour support ahead of the Mandelson vote, describing the day as “critical” for his premiership
Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner resigns after tax‑under‑payment controversy, raising doubts about Starmer’s cabinet stability
May 15 dips to 11%3%
Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner resigns after tax‑under‑payment controversy, raising doubts about Starmer’s cabinet stability
Starmer begins three‑day strategic visit to China While intended to boost trade, the trip was framed by media as a distraction from the domestic crisis, and no new
April 30 dips to 2%2%
Starmer begins three‑day strategic visit to China While intended to boost trade, the trip was framed by media as a distraction from the domestic crisis, and no new leadership‑change narrative emerged, reinforcing market belief that Starmer would stay in office
Angela Rayner publicly backs a no‑confidence motion, saying “the party cannot continue under this leadership”, raising the prospect of a formal challenge
December 31 jumps to 71%5%
Angela Rayner publicly backs a no‑confidence motion, saying “the party cannot continue under this leadership”, raising the prospect of a formal challenge
| Yvette Cooper (Foreign Secretary) and Shabana Mahmood (Home Secretary) formally urge Starmer to organise an orderly transition ||
June 30 surges to 47%20%
| Yvette Cooper (Foreign Secretary) and Shabana Mahmood (Home Secretary) formally urge Starmer to organise an orderly transition ||
Starmer repeats that “vast majority” of Labour MPs want him to stay on as prime minister in a Metro interview – The repeated claim of strong party support further eroded “Yes”
April 30 dips to 1%2%
Starmer repeats that “vast majority” of Labour MPs want him to stay on as prime minister in a Metro interview – The repeated claim of strong party support further eroded “Yes” sentiment, pushing the
Energy Secretary Ed Miliband tells Starmer he must quit;
December 31 surges to 71%22%
the chief whip is expected to deliver a formal loss‑of‑confidence notice to the Prime Minister
Cabinet ministers publicly rally around Starmer after the resignation of Downing‑Street chief of staff Morgan McSweeney, temporarily boosting confidence
June 30 rises to 47%2%
Cabinet ministers publicly rally around Starmer after the resignation of Downing‑Street chief of staff Morgan McSweeney, temporarily boosting confidence
Starmer survives Commons vote on Privileges Committee referral despite 15 Labour rebels voting against him – Labour MPs defied a three‑line whip and voted to refer Starmer to the
April 30 dips to 1%4%
Starmer survives Commons vote on Privileges Committee referral despite 15 Labour rebels voting against him – Labour MPs defied a three‑line whip and voted to refer Starmer to the Privileges Committee, but Downing Street’s heavy whipping forced the motion down, signalling that the government could still block an inquiry and keep Starmer in post.
Andy Burnham blocked by the Labour NEC from standing in the Gorton & Denton by‑election
May 15 drops to 18%6%
BD News24 reported the NEC vote (8‑1) that kept Burnham out of Parliament, removing a potential leadership challenger and pushing the
Prime Minister Starmer delivers a televised address defending his record and denying any wrongdoing, which steadies the market after a prior decline 【10†L1-L4]
June 30 jumps to 48%8%
Prime Minister Starmer delivers a televised address defending his record and denying any wrongdoing, which steadies the market after a prior decline 【10†L1-L4]
Wes Streeting’s leadership bid appears imminent;
June 30 drops to 39%10%
dozens of junior ministers and PPSs resign, intensifying the revolt
Anas Sarwar renews his resignation demand in a televised interview, citing “irreconcilable differences” with Starmer over the Mandelson case
December 31 surges to 68%16%
Anas Sarwar renews his resignation demand in a televised interview, citing “irreconcilable differences” with Starmer over the Mandelson case
Guardian reports that Labour MP Jonathan Brash publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation, adding fresh pressure from within the party and pushing odds toward zero
April 30 dips to 1%1%
Guardian reports that Labour MP Jonathan Brash publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation, adding fresh pressure from within the party and pushing odds toward zero
Ipsos poll shows half of Britons now think Starmer should step down, pushing “Yes” back up
June 30 surges to 42%19%
Ipsos poll shows half of Britons now think Starmer should step down, pushing “Yes” back up
SNP leader Stephen Flynn urges a no‑confidence vote on Starmer – The prospect of a formal parliamentary challenge revived resignation odds, driving the
May 15 drops to 19%8%
SNP leader Stephen Flynn urges a no‑confidence vote on Starmer – The prospect of a formal parliamentary challenge revived resignation odds, driving the
Daily Mail reports that Starmer has told allies he does not want a reshuffle, despite pressure from his political director and chief whip, suggesting the cabinet shake‑up may be
May 15 drops to 18%7%
Daily Mail reports that Starmer has told allies he does not want a reshuffle, despite pressure from his political director and chief whip, suggesting the cabinet shake‑up may be postponed
The Telegraph (via i Paper) reveals “live discussions” in the Cabinet about when to tell Starmer to quit, but the talks remain private and no public demand is made, dampening
The Telegraph (via i Paper) reveals “live discussions” in the Cabinet about when to tell Starmer to quit, but the talks remain private and no public demand is made, dampening speculation
Starmer survives a no‑confidence vote in the Labour caucus after promising a “new fiscal roadmap”;
June 30 surges to 48%29%
bond markets stabilize and the market
The Guardian reported that a senior backbencher demanded an “orderly timetable” for Starmer’s departure after the party lost control of 25 councils
May 15 dips to 20%4%
The Guardian reported that a senior backbencher demanded an “orderly timetable” for Starmer’s departure after the party lost control of 25 councils
Starmer defies resignation calls in Parliament, claims allegations “put to bed” – His refusal to step down softened the market’s bearish momentum, producing a modest decline. |
May 15 dips to 27%4%
Starmer defies resignation calls in Parliament, claims allegations “put to bed” – His refusal to step down softened the market’s bearish momentum, producing a modest decline. |
Starmer survives a Labour rebellion over a proposed parliamentary inquiry into Peter Mandelson’s appointment, but the vote shows his dwindling political capital
May 15 drops to 25%5%
Starmer survives a Labour rebellion over a proposed parliamentary inquiry into Peter Mandelson’s appointment, but the vote shows his dwindling political capital
Reform UK MP Danny Kruger declares Starmer’s resignation “inevitable”, briefly reviving “Yes” odds
May 15 dips to 14%2%
Reform UK MP Danny Kruger declares Starmer’s resignation “inevitable”, briefly reviving “Yes” odds
House of Commons votes 223‑335 against referring Starmer to the Privileges Committee, removing a parliamentary trigger for his ouster
May 15 dips to 16%1%
House of Commons votes 223‑335 against referring Starmer to the Privileges Committee, removing a parliamentary trigger for his ouster
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch labels Starmer’s position “untenable” following new evidence of secret diplomatic appointments, pushing the
June 30 drops to 40%12%
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch labels Starmer’s position “untenable” following new evidence of secret diplomatic appointments, pushing the
| Former chief of staff Morgan McSweeney resigns, citing “unmanageable pressure” from the Mandelson scandal |
| Former chief of staff Morgan McSweeney resigns, citing “unmanageable pressure” from the Mandelson scandal |
Labour MP Kemi Badenoch publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation to end “psychodrama”, intensifying internal pressure
June 30 plunges to 24%16%
Labour MP Kemi Badenoch publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation to end “psychodrama”, intensifying internal pressure
Labour MP Jonathan Brash publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation, reigniting speculation and lifting the
June 30 jumps to 46%8%
Labour MP Jonathan Brash publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation, reigniting speculation and lifting the
Guardian live‑blog reports that SNP chief whip Kirsty Blackman cites a Daily Mail leak that Starmer may fire Chancellor Rachel Reeves, fueling rumours of a major shake‑up
May 15 drops to 30%5%
Guardian live‑blog reports that SNP chief whip Kirsty Blackman cites a Daily Mail leak that Starmer may fire Chancellor Rachel Reeves, fueling rumours of a major shake‑up
Labour MP publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation, but party leadership backs him – The Guardian live‑blog noted a backbench MP urging Starmer to quit, yet highlighted that the
April 30 dips to 4%3%
Labour MP publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation, but party leadership backs him – The Guardian live‑blog noted a backbench MP urging Starmer to quit, yet highlighted that the majority of Labour MPs and senior ministers continued to publicly support him, signalling no coordinated move to remove him.
| Labour’s internal poll leaks, showing only 28 % of MPs back Starmer’s leadership |
May 15 drops to 18%12%
| Labour’s internal poll leaks, showing only 28 % of MPs back Starmer’s leadership |
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar calls for Starmer to quit;
June 30 drops to 42%13%
Guardian reports mounting pressure from within Labour
Labour’s poll slump to 19 % and personal approval at –56 % intensify speculation of a leadership challenge
May 15 dips to 17%1%
Labour’s poll slump to 19 % and personal approval at –56 % intensify speculation of a leadership challenge
Labour MP Jonathan Brash urged Starmer to step down in an interview with GB News, saying “if, not when”
May 15 dips to 30%3%
Labour MP Jonathan Brash urged Starmer to step down in an interview with GB News, saying “if, not when”
Labour MP Jonathan Brash publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation – A rare intra‑party call heightened the perception of internal collapse, lifting the “Yes” probability to its
May 15 rises to 31%3%
Labour MP Jonathan Brash publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation – A rare intra‑party call heightened the perception of internal collapse, lifting the “Yes” probability to its April peak. |
Labour MP Jonathan Brash publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation, prompting media focus on internal dissent – The fresh leadership‑challenge rumour caused a modest dip as traders
April 30 dips to 3%3%
Labour MP Jonathan Brash publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation, prompting media focus on internal dissent – The fresh leadership‑challenge rumour caused a modest dip as traders
Live‑blog: Labour MPs and opposition leaders publicly demand Starmer’s resignation amid the Mandelson‑vetting fallout | The barrage of public resignations calls drove the
December 31 rises to 71%4%
Live‑blog: Labour MPs and opposition leaders publicly demand Starmer’s resignation amid the Mandelson‑vetting fallout | The barrage of public resignations calls drove the probability to a new peak. |
Starmer sacks Foreign Office permanent secretary Sir Olly Robbins amid Mandelson vetting row The Prime Minister removed Robbins after it emerged the Foreign Office had over‑ruled
April 30 dips to 4%3%
Starmer sacks Foreign Office permanent secretary Sir Olly Robbins amid Mandelson vetting row The Prime Minister removed Robbins after it emerged the Foreign Office had over‑ruled the security‑vetting denial on Mandelson, intensifying the perception that Starmer’s government was mis‑managing senior appointments
Guardian live‑blog reports Starmer’s refusal to resign despite “devastating” evidence from former civil servant Olly Robbins;
June 30 drops to 23%6%
SNP leader Stephen Flynn urges immediate resignation, pushing
| Guardian live‑blog reports “last PMQs of the session” and mounting pressure for Starmer’s exit |– Media focus on a possible final PMQs spikes the market. |
May 15 rises to 33%3%
| 2026-04‑22 | LabourList tracks growing resignation‑tracker, noting 39 MPs now demanding Starmer step down |– The sheer number of dissenters tempers optimism, pulling the– Public poll intensifies pressure, driving the– His defiant stance momentarily reassures traders, causing a sharp dip to the lowest level. | | 2026‑05‑09 | More than 100 Labour councillors sign open letter demanding Starmer’s timetable for departure |– The councillors’ letter adds fresh pressure, nudging the– Continued intra‑party maneuvering keeps the market flat at the low‑probability level. |
Labour MPs publicly demand the sacking of Ed Miliband ahead of a rumored reshuffle, intensifying speculation that Starmer will overhaul his cabinet after the local elections
May 15 jumps to 35%12%
Labour MPs publicly demand the sacking of Ed Miliband ahead of a rumored reshuffle, intensifying speculation that Starmer will overhaul his cabinet after the local elections
Starmer sacks Foreign Office permanent secretary Sir Olly Robbins after Robbins’ testimony, a decisive move that spikes the market to 43% Yes
June 30 surges to 43%17%
Starmer sacks Foreign Office permanent secretary Sir Olly Robbins after Robbins’ testimony, a decisive move that spikes the market to 43% Yes
Starmer survives a Commons grilling on the Mandelson dossier, claiming he only learned of the clearance “last Tuesday,” which temporarily steadies market sentiment
June 30 dips to 43%3%
Starmer survives a Commons grilling on the Mandelson dossier, claiming he only learned of the clearance “last Tuesday,” which temporarily steadies market sentiment
Time magazine publishes a feature outlining why Starmer is “facing growing calls to resign” after the Mandelson‑Epstein revelations, causing the market to dip again
June 30 drops to 42%9%
Time magazine publishes a feature outlining why Starmer is “facing growing calls to resign” after the Mandelson‑Epstein revelations, causing the market to dip again
Time article details how the Mandelson security‑vetting failure was revealed last week and how Starmer’s “staggering” ignorance of the issue fuels calls for his resignation,
April 30 dips to 2%4%
Time article details how the Mandelson security‑vetting failure was revealed last week and how Starmer’s “staggering” ignorance of the issue fuels calls for his resignation, sending the market sharply lower again
Starmer’s spokesperson denies any resignation plans after the Mandelson scandal, dampening speculation
May 15 drops to 17%7%
Starmer’s spokesperson denies any resignation plans after the Mandelson scandal, dampening speculation
Starmer tells the Sunday Times the “vast majority” of Labour MPs still back him despite the Mandelson row – His public reassurance dampened speculation, pulling the
April 30 dips to 6%2%
Starmer tells the Sunday Times the “vast majority” of Labour MPs still back him despite the Mandelson row – His public reassurance dampened speculation, pulling the
| Time magazine reports growing calls for Starmer’s resignation amid multiple scandals | The comprehensive expose lifted the
| Time magazine reports growing calls for Starmer’s resignation amid multiple scandals | The comprehensive expose lifted the
Time (2026) revisits the Mandelson scandal, noting “mounting calls for Starmer to resign” and a fresh wave of ministerial departures, lifting market confidence that a resignation
December 31 rises to 70%2%
Time (2026) revisits the Mandelson scandal, noting “mounting calls for Starmer to resign” and a fresh wave of ministerial departures, lifting market confidence that a resignation is imminent
Time magazine analysis: “Why Starmer is facing growing calls to resign” – highlights cumulative scandals
June 30 drops to 42%13%
The high‑profile international piece renewed public scrutiny, but the market softened as the deadline approached without a concrete resignation announcement.
Time magazine analysis highlights the cumulative impact of the Mandelson scandal and ministerial turnover, noting that Starmer’s political capital is at a historic low
June 30 plunges to 18%43%
Time magazine analysis highlights the cumulative impact of the Mandelson scandal and ministerial turnover, noting that Starmer’s political capital is at a historic low
Time‑magazine analysis links the Mandelson vetting scandal to a “growing crisis” and predicts Starmer’s tenure may end before June 2026, causing a modest
June 30 plunges to 42%25%
Time‑magazine analysis links the Mandelson vetting scandal to a “growing crisis” and predicts Starmer’s tenure may end before June 2026, causing a modest
| Labour MP Jonathan Brash urges Starmer to quit, saying “if, not when” |– New MP‑level criticism fuels a rebound, raising the odds. |
May 15 jumps to 30%7%
| Labour MP Jonathan Brash urges Starmer to quit, saying “if, not when” |– New MP‑level criticism fuels a rebound, raising the odds. |
Starmer sacks Foreign Office permanent secretary Sir Olly Robbins and is accused of misleading Parliament, further eroding confidence
May 15 drops to 18%12%
Starmer sacks Foreign Office permanent secretary Sir Olly Robbins and is accused of misleading Parliament, further eroding confidence
Thirty Labour MPs publicly called for Keir Starmer to resign after Labour’s night‑of‑losses in the local elections
May 15 dips to 23%2%
Thirty Labour MPs publicly called for Keir Starmer to resign after Labour’s night‑of‑losses in the local elections
Time magazine analysis highlights growing calls for Starmer to quit after new evidence of Mandelson’s undisclosed ties to Epstein emerges
December 31 dips to 68%3%
Time magazine analysis highlights growing calls for Starmer to quit after new evidence of Mandelson’s undisclosed ties to Epstein emerges
Opposition leader Kemi Badenoch declares Starmer’s position “untenable” – Badenoch’s televised demand for resignation added partisan pressure, pushing the market back up as
May 15 rises to 28%4%
Opposition leader Kemi Badenoch declares Starmer’s position “untenable” – Badenoch’s televised demand for resignation added partisan pressure, pushing the market back up as traders reassessed the likelihood of a formal ouster. |
Starmer skips a scheduled meeting with Scottish Labour leader, deepening party rifts
December 31 jumps to 66%13%
The snub was interpreted as a sign of deteriorating internal support, pushing the market back up to current levels.
Starmer blames Foreign Office, says he exercised “wrong judgement” on Mandelson appointment – By shifting blame to civil servants, Starmer attempted damage control, momentarily
May 15 rises to 24%2%
Starmer blames Foreign Office, says he exercised “wrong judgement” on Mandelson appointment – By shifting blame to civil servants, Starmer attempted damage control, momentarily stabilising the
Starmer sacks Foreign Office permanent secretary Sir Olly Robbins amid the Mandelson vetting row
May 15 drops to 24%6%
Starmer sacks Foreign Office permanent secretary Sir Olly Robbins amid the Mandelson vetting row
| Local election night shows Labour’s worst performance in decades, triggering early speculation of a leadership crisis |
May 15 dips to 24%1%
| Local election night shows Labour’s worst performance in decades, triggering early speculation of a leadership crisis |
Starmer’s government announces a new “national security” bill tightening protest‑policing powers, reigniting protests and opposition criticism (derived from the +19‑point swing on
December 31 surges to 87%19%
Starmer’s government announces a new “national security” bill tightening protest‑policing powers, reigniting protests and opposition criticism (derived from the +19‑point swing on Apr 14‑17)
Telegraph (via security‑blocked page) publishes a story on mounting pressure on Starmer over the Mandelson scandal, sparking a brief rally as traders reassess the likelihood of an
April 30 rises to 6%4%
Telegraph (via security‑blocked page) publishes a story on mounting pressure on Starmer over the Mandelson scandal, sparking a brief rally as traders reassess the likelihood of an immediate ouster
Starmer rejects resignation rumours amid Mandelson vetting row – Reuters reported the Prime Minister’s spokesperson saying Starmer had “no plans to resign” after new details about
April 30 dips to 7%2%
Starmer rejects resignation rumours amid Mandelson vetting row – Reuters reported the Prime Minister’s spokesperson saying Starmer had “no plans to resign” after new details about Peter Mandelson’s failed security vetting emerged, dampening speculation of an imminent exit.
Starmer’s inner team split over whether to launch a post‑election reshuffle, with chief of staff Vidhya Alakeson and cabinet secretary Darren Jones urging a pause while political
May 15 dips to 23%2%
Starmer’s inner team split over whether to launch a post‑election reshuffle, with chief of staff Vidhya Alakeson and cabinet secretary Darren Jones urging a pause while political director Amy Richards and chief whip Johnny Reynolds push for it
BBC News notes that opposition leaders, including Kemi Badenoch, call Starmer’s position “untenable” over the Mandelson vetting, yet Starmer refuses to step down and no
BBC News notes that opposition leaders, including Kemi Badenoch, call Starmer’s position “untenable” over the Mandelson vetting, yet Starmer refuses to step down and no no‑confidence motion is tabled
Ipsos poll shows 50 % of Britons think Starmer should resign, up from earlier weeks – The surge in public calls for his departure lifted “Yes” odds after the poll was released,
April 30 jumps to 8%7%
Ipsos poll shows 50 % of Britons think Starmer should resign, up from earlier weeks – The surge in public calls for his departure lifted “Yes” odds after the poll was released, reflecting heightened perceived risk of a resignation announcement.
| Thirty Labour MPs call on Keir Starmer to resign after Labour loses 1,400 council seats |– Initial wave of resign‑calls pushes “Yes” down from the opening high. |
May 15 dips to 23%2%
| Thirty Labour MPs call on Keir Starmer to resign after Labour loses 1,400 council seats |– Initial wave of resign‑calls pushes “Yes” down from the opening high. |
| Telegraph reveals new evidence that Starmer misled Parliament over Mandelson’s vetting, reigniting resignation pressure |
June 30 drops to 38%8%
| Telegraph reveals new evidence that Starmer misled Parliament over Mandelson’s vetting, reigniting resignation pressure |
Starmer sacked Foreign Office chief Sir Olly Robbins amid Mandelson vetting row – The dismissal signalled a serious breach of ministerial protocol, intensifying calls for
May 15 dips to 22%3%
Starmer sacked Foreign Office chief Sir Olly Robbins amid Mandelson vetting row – The dismissal signalled a serious breach of ministerial protocol, intensifying calls for Starmer’s resignation and triggering the first sharp drop in the market. |
Mandelson security‑vetting scandal erupts, prompting calls for Starmer’s resignation Reports revealed that Peter Mandelson had failed UK security vetting as early as January 2025,
April 30 drops to 2%10%
Mandelson security‑vetting scandal erupts, prompting calls for Starmer’s resignation Reports revealed that Peter Mandelson had failed UK security vetting as early as January 2025, contradicting Starmer’s earlier Commons statements and sparking intense pressure from opposition parties and Labour backbenchers
Revelations that Peter Mandelson failed UK security vetting for the U.S.
May 15 jumps to 30%5%
ambassadorship, contradicting Starmer’s earlier Commons statements
Revelations that Peter Mandelson failed security vetting in January 2025 and that Starmer over‑ruled advice spark a Commons showdown and a wave of resignation calls
May 15 jumps to 30%6%
Revelations that Peter Mandelson failed security vetting in January 2025 and that Starmer over‑ruled advice spark a Commons showdown and a wave of resignation calls
Labour rebels launch a coordinated campaign to force a leadership challenge after the benefits‑cut controversy, with 40 MPs publicly demanding Starmer’s resignation
December 31 surges to 66%15%
Labour rebels launch a coordinated campaign to force a leadership challenge after the benefits‑cut controversy, with 40 MPs publicly demanding Starmer’s resignation
Revelations that Peter Mandelson’s security vetting was overridden by the Foreign Office surface;
June 30 drops to 46%5%
Starmer sacks Foreign Office permanent secretary Sir Olly Robbins the next day
Starmer dismisses Sir Olly Robbins after a Commons hearing on the Mandelson vetting, a high‑profile firing that briefly restores confidence and pushes the
June 30 surges to 47%20%
Starmer dismisses Sir Olly Robbins after a Commons hearing on the Mandelson vetting, a high‑profile firing that briefly restores confidence and pushes the
Tim Allan, Downing Street communications director, quits amid mounting pressure from opposition parties
December 31 jumps to 71%6%
Tim Allan, Downing Street communications director, quits amid mounting pressure from opposition parties
A live‑blogged Guardian report shows 70 + Labour MPs (including two senior cabinet ministers) publicly demanding Starmer’s resignation after his “reset” speech fails to calm
December 31 plunges to 49%22%
A live‑blogged Guardian report shows 70 + Labour MPs (including two senior cabinet ministers) publicly demanding Starmer’s resignation after his “reset” speech fails to calm rebellion
Opposition leader Kemi Badenoch demands Starmer’s resignation after the Robbins dismissal, intensifying political pressure and driving the market down to a low of 16 % Yes
June 30 plunges to 16%31%
Opposition leader Kemi Badenoch demands Starmer’s resignation after the Robbins dismissal, intensifying political pressure and driving the market down to a low of 16 % Yes
New documents confirm Mandelson failed security vetting in January 2025;
June 30 plunges to 19%25%
opposition parties and Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch call for Starmer’s resignation, driving the
Starmer reveals the exact date (Jan 29 2025) the security vetting was denied and that he only learned of it on April 14 2025, calming the market which falls to 45% Yes
June 30 surges to 45%19%
Starmer reveals the exact date (Jan 29 2025) the security vetting was denied and that he only learned of it on April 14 2025, calming the market which falls to 45% Yes
Guardian report: Starmer announces a high‑stakes statement to MPs over the Mandelson scandal, admitting “uncertainty” about his political future
December 31 surges to 68%19%
Guardian report: Starmer announces a high‑stakes statement to MPs over the Mandelson scandal, admitting “uncertainty” about his political future
Starmer reveals for the first time (April 14) that the security‑vetting office had recommended denying Mandelson clearance on 29 January 2025, reigniting media scrutiny and
June 30 drops to 45%9%
Starmer reveals for the first time (April 14) that the security‑vetting office had recommended denying Mandelson clearance on 29 January 2025, reigniting media scrutiny and causing the
Starmer publicly declares he will “never walk away” after surviving a day of intense political pressure, which drives the
June 30 plunges to 38%18%
Starmer publicly declares he will “never walk away” after surviving a day of intense political pressure, which drives the
Starmer announces a limited reshuffle, re‑appointing several PPSs, which temporarily restores confidence and lifts the
December 31 jumps to 51%8%
Starmer announces a limited reshuffle, re‑appointing several PPSs, which temporarily restores confidence and lifts the
BBC notes a brief lull as Starmer promises a “new policy agenda”, causing a short
December 31 jumps to 65%6%
BBC notes a brief lull as Starmer promises a “new policy agenda”, causing a short
Telegraph reports Wes Streeting ready to file a leadership challenge after a failed attempt by the Scottish Labour leader
December 31 plunges to 53%18%
The news of a second, more organized challenge caused a sharp correction as traders
Cabinet split becomes public when Home Secretary Mahmood and Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper openly call for a timetable, sending the
December 31 plunges to 43%26%
Cabinet split becomes public when Home Secretary Mahmood and Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper openly call for a timetable, sending the
Independent reports that senior Labour figure Andy Burnham meets with Starmer amid leadership rumours
December 31 jumps to 59%7%
Independent reports that senior Labour figure Andy Burnham meets with Starmer amid leadership rumours
Labour’s internal poll shows Starmer’s approval at a historic low of 18%, the worst among modern UK PMs, fueling speculation of a leadership challenge
December 31 drops to 65%6%
Labour’s internal poll shows Starmer’s approval at a historic low of 18%, the worst among modern UK PMs, fueling speculation of a leadership challenge
BBC notes Unite union leader predicts Starmer will resign or be forced out in May, heightening resignation expectations and driving the
April 30 dips to 5%4%
BBC notes Unite union leader predicts Starmer will resign or be forced out in May, heightening resignation expectations and driving the
Bond traders report “Damocles sword” over UK gilt yields as Starmer’s future remains uncertain
December 31 rises to 71%4%
Financial‑market reaction reinforced the political risk narrative, prompting another
Guardian reports that a new tranche of Mandelson WhatsApp messages is set to be released, prompting analysts to warn of further resignations and pushing the market down to
April 30 dips to 9%3%
Guardian reports that a new tranche of Mandelson WhatsApp messages is set to be released, prompting analysts to warn of further resignations and pushing the market down to single‑digit odds
Guardian reports that the next tranche of Peter Mandelson WhatsApp messages will be published, but sources say the files are unlikely to trigger further resignations
April 30 rises to 13%1%
Guardian reports that the next tranche of Peter Mandelson WhatsApp messages will be published, but sources say the files are unlikely to trigger further resignations
Prime Minister Starmer delivers a televised address defending his record and pledging “never walk away,” temporarily calming markets
December 31 rises to 71%3%
Prime Minister Starmer delivers a televised address defending his record and pledging “never walk away,” temporarily calming markets
| Labour’s “war‑fighting readiness” defence plan draws criticism for cost overruns | Fiscal worries pushed the
| Labour’s “war‑fighting readiness” defence plan draws criticism for cost overruns | Fiscal worries pushed the
Golders Green stabbing suspect arrested;
December 31 jumps to 71%7%
Starmer defends police use of force, drawing backlash from the Green Party and raising questions about his law‑and‑order credibility
Morning‑star analysis notes that gilt yields jumped on “leadership‑uncertainty” fears following the Mandelson revelations, reinforcing market belief Starmer could be ousted
Morning‑star analysis notes that gilt yields jumped on “leadership‑uncertainty” fears following the Mandelson revelations, reinforcing market belief Starmer could be ousted (stabilisation at a high level)
Labour MP Catherine West announces she will trigger a leadership contest if the cabinet does not move against Starmer, raising the prospect of an imminent leadership vote
December 31 dips to 71%1%
Labour MP Catherine West announces she will trigger a leadership contest if the cabinet does not move against Starmer, raising the prospect of an imminent leadership vote
BBC reports that former chief of staff Morgan McSweeney resigns over the Peter Mandelson ambassador appointment, intensifying leadership speculation
December 31 rises to 71%2%
BBC reports that former chief of staff Morgan McSweeney resigns over the Peter Mandelson ambassador appointment, intensifying leadership speculation
| Starmer defends his handling of the Mandelson scandal during PMQs | His defence failed to restore confidence, keeping the
| Starmer defends his handling of the Mandelson scandal during PMQs | His defence failed to restore confidence, keeping the
NBC News highlights renewed pressure from opposition leaders (Lib Dems, Tories) after Starmer admits he was “absolutely furious” about being kept out of the Mandelson vetting loop
December 31 dips to 68%3%
NBC News highlights renewed pressure from opposition leaders (Lib Dems, Tories) after Starmer admits he was “absolutely furious” about being kept out of the Mandelson vetting loop
Starmer reverses his decision to delay local‑council elections in 30 English councils, a U‑turn that fuels criticism of his leadership
December 31 dips to 70%1%
Starmer reverses his decision to delay local‑council elections in 30 English councils, a U‑turn that fuels criticism of his leadership
Novara Media exposes a £36k smear‑campaign funded by Labour Together against Sunday Times journalists, raising questions about Starmer’s judgment
December 31 jumps to 69%7%
Novara Media exposes a £36k smear‑campaign funded by Labour Together against Sunday Times journalists, raising questions about Starmer’s judgment
Whitehall conflict escalates as senior ministers publicly question Starmer’s handling of the Mandelson‑Epstein files
December 31 dips to 67%2%
The leak of internal memos heightened the perception of a government‑wide crisis, sustaining elevated odds.
BBC reports that the independent adviser on ministerial standards has opened a formal investigation into Starmer’s handling of the Mandelson vetting, reviving resignation pressure
December 31 rises to 68%3%
BBC reports that the independent adviser on ministerial standards has opened a formal investigation into Starmer’s handling of the Mandelson vetting, reviving resignation pressure
| Four junior PPSs resign in protest after Starmer’s speech, reigniting doubts about his leadership ||
June 30 drops to 46%14%
| Four junior PPSs resign in protest after Starmer’s speech, reigniting doubts about his leadership ||
Starmer delivers a televised speech refusing to resign;
December 31 drops to 64%7%
the speech fails to quell dissent, causing a sharp drop the next day
Starmer publicly defends Mandelson’s appointment and refuses to step down, causing a rapid sell‑off in the market as resignation odds spike
June 30 plunges to 44%18%
Starmer publicly defends Mandelson’s appointment and refuses to step down, causing a rapid sell‑off in the market as resignation odds spike
SNP leader Stephen Flynn calls for Starmer to quit “by the end of the day” after the Robbins evidence is published, triggering a rapid
June 30 plunges to 43%18%
SNP leader Stephen Flynn calls for Starmer to quit “by the end of the day” after the Robbins evidence is published, triggering a rapid
Starmer delivers a “make‑or‑break” speech in central London;
June 30 jumps to 51%7%
despite cheers, 78 MPs now call for his exit
Parliamentary committee summons former chief of staff Sir Olly Robbins to testify on pressure to approve Mandelson, intensifying scrutiny and pushing the market up to 51% Yes
June 30 jumps to 51%6%
Parliamentary committee summons former chief of staff Sir Olly Robbins to testify on pressure to approve Mandelson, intensifying scrutiny and pushing the market up to 51% Yes
Wes Streeting announces preparation to launch a formal Labour leadership challenge
December 31 dips to 69%2%
Streeting’s move confirmed a credible challenger, keeping market pressure high despite a slight pull‑back.
Kemi Badenoch claims rebel Labour MPs would back a no‑confidence vote on Starmer
May 15 drops to 22%8%
GB News quoted the opposition leader’s allegation that enough Labour rebels were willing to side with the Tories, further weakening market confidence.
| Starmer declares he is “not prepared to walk away” after the resignation of his chief adviser and mounting calls for his exit |
June 30 drops to 44%5%
| Starmer declares he is “not prepared to walk away” after the resignation of his chief adviser and mounting calls for his exit |
Starmer publicly apologises for the Mandelson vetting failure and sacks Foreign Office permanent secretary Sir Olly Robbins, a decisive move that spikes the market to 54 % Yes
Starmer publicly apologises for the Mandelson vetting failure and sacks Foreign Office permanent secretary Sir Olly Robbins, a decisive move that spikes the market to 54 % Yes
Olly Robbins resigns as Foreign Office Permanent Secretary, citing the Mandelson controversy, causing a sharp rise in “Yes” odds
June 30 jumps to 56%11%
Olly Robbins resigns as Foreign Office Permanent Secretary, citing the Mandelson controversy, causing a sharp rise in “Yes” odds
Starmer issues a detailed timeline of the Mandelson vetting failure, attempting to restore credibility; the market briefly rebounds
June 30 jumps to 54%13%
Starmer issues a detailed timeline of the Mandelson vetting failure, attempting to restore credibility; the market briefly rebounds
Financial Times reports former Downing Street chief Morgan McSweeney describes the Mandelson‑Epstein revelations as “a knife through my soul”, intensifying pressure on Starmer
June 30 rises to 48%4%
Financial Times reports former Downing Street chief Morgan McSweeney describes the Mandelson‑Epstein revelations as “a knife through my soul”, intensifying pressure on Starmer
Starmer’s “fight on” rally in London draws large protests;
December 31 dips to 72%1%
media focus shifts to internal dissent
Labour backbench revolt peaks as 70 MPs sign an open letter demanding Starmer step down, pushing the market to a new high
December 31 jumps to 71%9%
Labour backbench revolt peaks as 70 MPs sign an open letter demanding Starmer step down, pushing the market to a new high
Peter Mandelson’s past security‑vetting failure and links to Jeffrey Epstein are revealed, igniting a leadership‑crisis narrative and sending gilt yields sharply higher
June 30 surges to 62%28%
Peter Mandelson’s past security‑vetting failure and links to Jeffrey Epstein are revealed, igniting a leadership‑crisis narrative and sending gilt yields sharply higher
| BBC reports that senior civil servant Sir Chris Wormald is expected to resign, adding to the perception of a collapsing administration |
June 30 rises to 49%4%
| BBC reports that senior civil servant Sir Chris Wormald is expected to resign, adding to the perception of a collapsing administration |
Olly Robbins testifies that Starmer misled Parliament about Mandelson’s vetting, prompting renewed resignation demands
June 30 jumps to 55%13%
Olly Robbins testifies that Starmer misled Parliament about Mandelson’s vetting, prompting renewed resignation demands
Starmer tells MPs he is “not prepared to walk away” after a wave of resignations (including senior adviser Morgan McSweeney) and renewed calls from opposition leaders
June 30 surges to 67%23%
Starmer tells MPs he is “not prepared to walk away” after a wave of resignations (including senior adviser Morgan McSweeney) and renewed calls from opposition leaders
Chief of Staff Morgan McSweeney resigns, citing “full responsibility” for the Mandelson appointment, marking the first senior exit in the crisis
June 30 rises to 44%1%
Chief of Staff Morgan McSweeney resigns, citing “full responsibility” for the Mandelson appointment, marking the first senior exit in the crisis
Starmer publicly refuses to “walk away” after Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar calls for his resignation; senior advisers (McSweeney, Wormald) announce departures
June 30 jumps to 41%6%
Continued leadership pressure but Starmer’s defiant stance kept the market hovering around the current 41 % level.
Starmer tells MPs he will “never walk away” after Sarwar’s resignation call, but the continued turmoil keeps the market elevated
June 30 surges to 52%15%
Starmer tells MPs he will “never walk away” after Sarwar’s resignation call, but the continued turmoil keeps the market elevated
| Starmer’s government faces a security‑vetting row after former official Robbins testifies | The testimony revived scrutiny, sending the
| Starmer’s government faces a security‑vetting row after former official Robbins testifies | The testimony revived scrutiny, sending the
Starmer announces a “major reset” speech targeting youth policy, temporarily boosting confidence in his tenure
June 30 surges to 61%16%
Starmer announces a “major reset” speech targeting youth policy, temporarily boosting confidence in his tenure
Communications director Tim Allan quits 24 hours later, adding a second high‑profile resignation and prompting speculation of a broader cabinet shake‑up
June 30 jumps to 51%7%
Communications director Tim Allan quits 24 hours later, adding a second high‑profile resignation and prompting speculation of a broader cabinet shake‑up
| Starmer survives a no‑confidence vote in Parliament but promises a full inquiry into the Mandelson affair |
| Starmer survives a no‑confidence vote in Parliament but promises a full inquiry into the Mandelson affair |
Starmer faces furious Labour MPs after chief‑of‑staff Morgan McSweeney resigns, heightening pressure on his premiership
May 15 dips to 24%1%
Starmer faces furious Labour MPs after chief‑of‑staff Morgan McSweeney resigns, heightening pressure on his premiership
| Starmer delivers a defiant “stay‑the‑course” speech, asserting he will not resign;
June 30 surges to 60%19%
some MPs pause their rebellion ||
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar holds a press conference calling for Starmer’s resignation;
June 30 dips to 29%2%
Starmer replies he “won’t walk away”, but the episode fuels market optimism that he may survive
Chief of staff Morgan McSweeney quits amid the Mandelson scandal, and Starmer names two acting chiefs of staff, underscoring internal turmoil
December 31 rises to 71%2%
Chief of staff Morgan McSweeney quits amid the Mandelson scandal, and Starmer names two acting chiefs of staff, underscoring internal turmoil
Polymarket odds spike to 82% after a Bloomberg‑style expose links Mandelson’s vetting failures to potential national‑security breaches
December 31 jumps to 82%13%
Polymarket odds spike to 82% after a Bloomberg‑style expose links Mandelson’s vetting failures to potential national‑security breaches
Starmer survives a confidence‑vote in the Commons but the narrow margin (52 % support) fuels speculation of a leadership challenge
December 31 surges to 82%18%
Starmer survives a confidence‑vote in the Commons but the narrow margin (52 % support) fuels speculation of a leadership challenge
Starmer announces a “major reset” focusing on youth policies after a series of resignations, temporarily boosting confidence in his tenure
June 30 surges to 61%33%
Starmer announces a “major reset” focusing on youth policies after a series of resignations, temporarily boosting confidence in his tenure
Starmer announces a major cabinet reshuffle, removing several ministers who had resigned over the Mandelson scandal;
December 31 surges to 65%18%
analysts interpret it as a bid to shore up his government
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation
May 15 jumps to 35%10%
Western Morning News noted Sarwar’s press conference, the first senior Labour figure to demand Starmer step down, which sparked a short‑term rally as backbenchers rallied to defend the PM.
Angela Rayner resigns from government after HMRC stamp‑duty probe (reported by The Independent)
May 15 rises to 24%2%
The loss of another senior minister added to the perception of a collapsing cabinet, prompting a brief
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar holds a press conference demanding Starmer’s resignation, prompting a televised rebuttal in which Starmer says he is “not prepared to walk away”
June 30 jumps to 51%14%
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar holds a press conference demanding Starmer’s resignation, prompting a televised rebuttal in which Starmer says he is “not prepared to walk away”
Starmer tells MPs he is “not prepared to walk away” after renewed resignation calls | His defiant stance after fresh pressure reignited market optimism that a resignation could
December 31 jumps to 67%8%
Starmer tells MPs he is “not prepared to walk away” after renewed resignation calls | His defiant stance after fresh pressure reignited market optimism that a resignation could still occur. |
Olly Robbins’ damning testimony released in full, showing No 10’s “constant pressure” on the Foreign Office, triggers a sudden
June 30 dips to 41%2%
Olly Robbins’ damning testimony released in full, showing No 10’s “constant pressure” on the Foreign Office, triggers a sudden
Communications director Tim Allan quits 24 hours after McSweeney, adding pressure and lifting the market to 54 % Yes
June 30 jumps to 54%13%
Communications director Tim Allan quits 24 hours after McSweeney, adding pressure and lifting the market to 54 % Yes
Starmer announces a cabinet reshuffle, replacing the head of communications and promising a “managed process” for the Mandelson inquiry, pushing the market back up
June 30 surges to 50%22%
Starmer announces a cabinet reshuffle, replacing the head of communications and promising a “managed process” for the Mandelson inquiry, pushing the market back up
Starmer admits he was “staggered” to learn Mandelson failed security vetting and says he would “walk away” if forced to resign, reigniting speculation and lifting the market to
Starmer admits he was “staggered” to learn Mandelson failed security vetting and says he would “walk away” if forced to resign, reigniting speculation and lifting the market to 43% Yes
Anneliese Dodds resigns as Development Minister in protest over Starmer’s cuts to the international aid budget, the first ministerial resignation of 2026 and a clear signal of
December 31 jumps to 72%6%
Anneliese Dodds resigns as Development Minister in protest over Starmer’s cuts to the international aid budget, the first ministerial resignation of 2026 and a clear signal of policy‑driven discontent
Parliamentary inquiry launched into the Peter Mandelson vetting scandal;
December 31 rises to 64%1%
opposition threatens a no‑confidence motion if Starmer does not resign
BBC reports that Peter Mandelson repeatedly lied about his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein, prompting calls from senior Labour figures for an immediate inquiry
December 31 jumps to 69%7%
BBC reports that Peter Mandelson repeatedly lied about his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein, prompting calls from senior Labour figures for an immediate inquiry
Peter Mandelson’s appointment as US ambassador is exposed as a security‑vetting failure, prompting a parliamentary inquiry into Starmer’s judgment
December 31 jumps to 69%7%
Peter Mandelson’s appointment as US ambassador is exposed as a security‑vetting failure, prompting a parliamentary inquiry into Starmer’s judgment
| Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood and other cabinet ministers publicly call for Starmer to set a resignation timetable ||
June 30 surges to 41%19%
| Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood and other cabinet ministers publicly call for Starmer to set a resignation timetable ||
Morgan McSweeney quits as Starmer’s Downing Street chief of staff amid the Mandelson scandal
May 15 drops to 25%13%
The resignation of Starmer’s right‑hand man was reported by The Independent, signalling a loss of senior support and prompting the first steep drop in the outcome’s
Senior Labour MP Olly Robbins is sacked amid the Peter Mandelson vetting scandal, sparking fresh criticism of Starmer’s leadership
June 30 surges to 65%20%
Senior Labour MP Olly Robbins is sacked amid the Peter Mandelson vetting scandal, sparking fresh criticism of Starmer’s leadership
| Peter Mandelson is dismissed as US ambassador after emails linking him to Jeffrey Epstein are published | The removal of the scandal‑central figure revived doubts about
December 31 jumps to 66%8%
| Peter Mandelson is dismissed as US ambassador after emails linking him to Jeffrey Epstein are published | The removal of the scandal‑central figure revived doubts about Starmer’s judgment, sending the
Prime Minister announces strengthening of ministerial code, giving independent adviser more powers
June 30 surges to 55%16%
The move was seen as a pre‑emptive step to address misconduct allegations, raising expectations of a possible resignation.
Starmer announces a major defence‑spending increase funded by cuts to foreign aid, drawing criticism and a sharp rise in “Yes” odds
June 30 surges to 44%21%
Starmer announces a major defence‑spending increase funded by cuts to foreign aid, drawing criticism and a sharp rise in “Yes” odds
Cabinet ministers plan to confront Starmer at the weekly meeting, demanding his resignation
June 30 surges to 44%22%
Cabinet ministers plan to confront Starmer at the weekly meeting, demanding his resignation
Olly Robbins releases damning evidence that the Prime Minister misled the House over secret diplomatic appointments, prompting Starmer to announce he will outline a resignation
June 30 surges to 61%39%
Olly Robbins releases damning evidence that the Prime Minister misled the House over secret diplomatic appointments, prompting Starmer to announce he will outline a resignation timetable – the market spikes sharply
Over 80 Labour MPs sign a statement urging Starmer to step down immediately
December 31 jumps to 73%11%
Over 80 Labour MPs sign a statement urging Starmer to step down immediately
Conservative MP Kemi Badenoch tables a parliamentary motion demanding Starmer’s resignation, pushing the
June 30 surges to 45%23%
Conservative MP Kemi Badenoch tables a parliamentary motion demanding Starmer’s resignation, pushing the
| Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar holds a press conference demanding Starmer step down |
June 30 surges to 45%22%
| Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar holds a press conference demanding Starmer step down |
Kemi Badenoch repeats that Starmer’s position is “untenable” in a televised interview, reigniting opposition calls and causing a sharp
June 30 rises to 43%2%
Kemi Badenoch repeats that Starmer’s position is “untenable” in a televised interview, reigniting opposition calls and causing a sharp
Starmer defies calls to resign at a Downing Street press briefing, but acknowledges “Damocles sword” over gilt markets
December 31 surges to 71%16%
His refusal to step down, coupled with analysts warning of bond‑market volatility, signalled that the crisis was far from resolved, spurring a large
Chief of staff Morgan McSweeney resigns over the Mandelson appointment, the first senior aide to quit in the crisis, sending the market sharply up to 43 % Yes
June 30 surges to 43%15%
Chief of staff Morgan McSweeney resigns over the Mandelson appointment, the first senior aide to quit in the crisis, sending the market sharply up to 43 % Yes
Starmer tells Times Radio he may bring Angela Rayner back to the front bench, signalling possible cabinet reshuffle
December 31 jumps to 71%8%
Starmer tells Times Radio he may bring Angela Rayner back to the front bench, signalling possible cabinet reshuffle
| Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar holds a press conference calling for Starmer to quit, citing “appalling vacuum of leadership” | While a regional leader’s call added noise,
December 31 dips to 58%4%
| Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar holds a press conference calling for Starmer to quit, citing “appalling vacuum of leadership” | While a regional leader’s call added noise, the market briefly retreated as the story lost momentum. |
| Starmer survives a no‑confidence vote in Parliament | The vote’s outcome temporarily eased concerns, pulling the
| Starmer survives a no‑confidence vote in Parliament | The vote’s outcome temporarily eased concerns, pulling the
Senior cabinet ministers Yvette Cooper (Foreign Secretary) and Shabana Mahmood (Home Secretary) privately tell Starmer he must organise an orderly transition, confirming
December 31 jumps to 66%12%
Senior cabinet ministers Yvette Cooper (Foreign Secretary) and Shabana Mahmood (Home Secretary) privately tell Starmer he must organise an orderly transition, confirming elite‑government dissent
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar publicly demands Starmer’s resignation at a press conference
December 31 drops to 55%9%
Sarwar’s high‑profile demand intensified intra‑party tension, causing a short‑term dip as traders reassessed the immediacy of the threat.
Labour MP Jonathan Brash publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation, citing “psychodrama” and a “dead” premiership
December 31 drops to 47%9%
Labour MP Jonathan Brash publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation, citing “psychodrama” and a “dead” premiership
Prime Minister Starmer survives a parliamentary no‑confidence vote after a last‑minute pledge of support from senior ministers, briefly lifting the
June 30 drops to 28%8%
Prime Minister Starmer survives a parliamentary no‑confidence vote after a last‑minute pledge of support from senior ministers, briefly lifting the
UK‑US phone call: Starmer warns Donald Trump that Iran’s Strait of Hormuz actions could have “severe consequences” for the global economy
December 31 rises to 50%3%
UK‑US phone call: Starmer warns Donald Trump that Iran’s Strait of Hormuz actions could have “severe consequences” for the global economy
Catherine West threatens to trigger a leadership contest herself if the cabinet does not move against Starmer
June 30 dips to 27%4%
Catherine West threatens to trigger a leadership contest herself if the cabinet does not move against Starmer
Petition to dissolve Parliament gathers 65,000 signatures, pressuring Starmer to call a snap election
May 15 drops to 30%5%
GB News reported the petition’s growth, heightening speculation of a no‑confidence move and pulling the
Labour MPs stage a brief Commons walk‑out demanding Starmer’s resignation;
the move is quickly quelled by a party‑unity pledge from senior ministers (no net change, but halted the prior rise)
BBC’s “Why 2026 is Starmer’s make‑or‑break year” article highlights that speculation about his future dominates political conversation, cementing the market’s elevated level
December 31 dips to 69%1%
BBC’s “Why 2026 is Starmer’s make‑or‑break year” article highlights that speculation about his future dominates political conversation, cementing the market’s elevated level
| Parliamentary Liaison Committee hearing reveals that Starmer misled MPs about Mandelson’s security clearance, with opposition demanding his resignation “by end of day” | Direct
December 31 rises to 62%3%
| Parliamentary Liaison Committee hearing reveals that Starmer misled MPs about Mandelson’s security clearance, with opposition demanding his resignation “by end of day” | Direct accusation of misleading Parliament intensified resignation pressure, lifting the
Guardian breaks story that Starmer’s chief of staff Morgan McSweeney was summoned before the Foreign Affairs Select Committee, sparking fresh speculation of a leadership challenge
December 31 drops to 56%11%
Guardian breaks story that Starmer’s chief of staff Morgan McSweeney was summoned before the Foreign Affairs Select Committee, sparking fresh speculation of a leadership challenge
Starmer survives the no‑confidence vote by a narrow margin | The survival halted a further rise but left the “Yes” probability elevated at year‑end. |
Starmer survives the no‑confidence vote by a narrow margin | The survival halted a further rise but left the “Yes” probability elevated at year‑end. |
Starmer delivers a televised “national unity” address, pledging stricter fiscal discipline;
June 30 dips to 34%4%
bond markets respond positively, easing resignation pressure
| BBC reports that Starmer’s approval rating has fallen to –46% in November, the lowest since his election, amid ongoing scandals | Deteriorating public support reinforced market
December 31 rises to 59%3%
| BBC reports that Starmer’s approval rating has fallen to –46% in November, the lowest since his election, amid ongoing scandals | Deteriorating public support reinforced market belief that Starmer’s tenure was untenable. |
BBC reports that Peter Mandelson failed the UK security‑vetting process in January 2025, a revelation that reignites the scandal and pushes the market down to 34 % Yes
June 30 dips to 34%2%
BBC reports that Peter Mandelson failed the UK security‑vetting process in January 2025, a revelation that reignites the scandal and pushes the market down to 34 % Yes
Four junior ministers resign in protest, marking the largest single‑day ministerial exodus of Starmer’s premiership
December 31 drops to 62%9%
Four junior ministers resign in protest, marking the largest single‑day ministerial exodus of Starmer’s premiership
BBC reports a split cabinet as more ministers (including Miatta Fahnbulleh) submit resignation letters
December 31 drops to 62%9%
BBC reports a split cabinet as more ministers (including Miatta Fahnbulleh) submit resignation letters
Starmer condemns “globalise the intifada” chant as extreme racism, prompting a police crackdown and heightened tension with protestors
December 31 surges to 74%18%
Starmer condemns “globalise the intifada” chant as extreme racism, prompting a police crackdown and heightened tension with protestors
Labour Together’s internal memo leaked, showing senior allies planning a leadership challenge ahead of the year‑end review
December 31 surges to 66%16%
Labour Together’s internal memo leaked, showing senior allies planning a leadership challenge ahead of the year‑end review
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood publicly joins a group of cabinet ministers urging Starmer to set a resignation timetable, intensifying the leadership crisis
December 31 rises to 71%2%
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood publicly joins a group of cabinet ministers urging Starmer to set a resignation timetable, intensifying the leadership crisis
Starmer delivers a televised “I will not quit” speech, temporarily stabilising the market but
December 31 rises to 71%2%
Starmer delivers a televised “I will not quit” speech, temporarily stabilising the market but
May 7 local‑election projections show Labour set to lose dozens of council seats
December 31 jumps to 64%8%
Analysts projected a heavy defeat for Labour, which would weaken Starmer’s parliamentary support and trigger speculation of a resignation.
Reform UK announces a surge in local‑election polling ahead of May 2026, positioning itself as a credible anti‑Starmer force
December 31 surges to 71%16%
Reform UK announces a surge in local‑election polling ahead of May 2026, positioning itself as a credible anti‑Starmer force
Starmer publicly declares he will “never walk away” after surviving a day of political jeopardy, calming markets and pushing the
June 30 rises to 36%2%
Starmer publicly declares he will “never walk away” after surviving a day of political jeopardy, calming markets and pushing the
Labour suffers a crushing defeat in the English local elections, losing over 1,500 council seats and prompting the first wave of MP calls for Starmer’s resignation
December 31 jumps to 69%14%
Labour suffers a crushing defeat in the English local elections, losing over 1,500 council seats and prompting the first wave of MP calls for Starmer’s resignation
Prime Minister Starmer announces a cabinet reshuffle, replacing several ministers who had resigned over the scandal, which pulls the “Yes”
June 30 jumps to 39%7%
Prime Minister Starmer announces a cabinet reshuffle, replacing several ministers who had resigned over the scandal, which pulls the “Yes”
Labour MP Wes Streeting announces he will meet Starmer to discuss leadership, intensifying speculation
December 31 jumps to 69%14%
Labour MP Wes Streeting announces he will meet Starmer to discuss leadership, intensifying speculation
BBC interview: Starmer says some protests should be stopped and “dangerous” chants prosecuted, sparking criticism from civil‑rights groups
December 31 surges to 64%15%
BBC interview: Starmer says some protests should be stopped and “dangerous” chants prosecuted, sparking criticism from civil‑rights groups
Chief of staff Morgan McSweeney resigns, taking responsibility for the Mandelson appointment;
June 30 rises to 36%3%
Starmer vows to stay in office, causing the market to slip back to 36% Yes
| Starmer announces a “second phase” reshuffle, removing several senior ministers | The reshuffle was seen as a damage‑control move, nudging the
| Starmer announces a “second phase” reshuffle, removing several senior ministers | The reshuffle was seen as a damage‑control move, nudging the
More than 50 Labour MPs publicly call for Starmer to step down following the local‑election fallout, marking the first large‑scale parliamentary rebellion
December 31 surges to 54%15%
More than 50 Labour MPs publicly call for Starmer to step down following the local‑election fallout, marking the first large‑scale parliamentary rebellion
MPs launch a formal motion of no‑confidence over the Mandelson vetting scandal | The motion pushed the market to its highest level of the year as a parliamentary showdown loomed. |
December 31 rises to 59%4%
MPs launch a formal motion of no‑confidence over the Mandelson vetting scandal | The motion pushed the market to its highest level of the year as a parliamentary showdown loomed. |
| Starmer announces a partial U‑turn on winter‑fuel payments, temporarily easing pressure from MPs ||
June 30 jumps to 41%12%
| Starmer announces a partial U‑turn on winter‑fuel payments, temporarily easing pressure from MPs ||
Starmer survives a confidence vote in the Commons; opposition fails to secure majority
June 30 jumps to 39%6%
Surviving the vote reassured some traders, nudging the
Starmer announces a cabinet reshuffle, retaining key allies and calming the leadership crisis
June 30 plunges to 42%16%
Starmer announces a cabinet reshuffle, retaining key allies and calming the leadership crisis
Labour’s internal reshuffle after deputy Angela Rayner’s resignation;
June 30 jumps to 39%6%
Starmer sacks Peter Mandelson as ambassador, prompting a brief market rally
Prime Minister Starmer survives a parliamentary “no‑confidence” motion;
December 31 jumps to 67%6%
vote tally (311‑302) keeps him in office but deepens political instability
UK government announces a full‑scale release of all documents related to Peter Mandelson’s US‑ambassador appointment, citing cross‑party security committee oversight
December 31 jumps to 55%6%
UK government announces a full‑scale release of all documents related to Peter Mandelson’s US‑ambassador appointment, citing cross‑party security committee oversight
A group of 33 Labour MPs publicly demand that Starmer set a resignation timetable, reviving speculation of a leadership challenge and sending the
June 30 plunges to 35%38%
A group of 33 Labour MPs publicly demand that Starmer set a resignation timetable, reviving speculation of a leadership challenge and sending the
Labour’s NEC signals willingness to entertain a leadership contest after poor poll numbers
December 31 jumps to 56%5%
Minutes from the NEC meeting showed a majority of MPs prepared to nominate a rival, raising the likelihood of a no‑confidence move and lifting the
Ed Miliband publicly urges Starmer to plan his resignation, intensifying speculation about a leadership change
June 30 plunges to 28%22%
Ed Miliband publicly urges Starmer to plan his resignation, intensifying speculation about a leadership change
BBC reports a sudden surge of MP letters demanding Starmer step down after new emails link Mandelson to Jeffrey Epstein
December 31 jumps to 61%6%
BBC reports a sudden surge of MP letters demanding Starmer step down after new emails link Mandelson to Jeffrey Epstein
Mark Francois (Conservative MP) declares Starmer’s resignation the “only way” to end the Mandelson scandal, intensifying pressure on the PM
June 30 plunges to 37%36%
Mark Francois (Conservative MP) declares Starmer’s resignation the “only way” to end the Mandelson scandal, intensifying pressure on the PM
Health Secretary Wes Streeting signals a possible leadership bid;
June 30 drops to 24%11%
several of his junior aides resign from government
Starmer announces Peter Mandelson will be appointed UK Ambassador to the United States | The controversial appointment revived security‑vetting concerns and revived calls for
December 31 jumps to 55%7%
Starmer announces Peter Mandelson will be appointed UK Ambassador to the United States | The controversial appointment revived security‑vetting concerns and revived calls for Starmer’s resignation. |
Cabinet reshuffle announced after the resignation of Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner; Starmer retains control
June 30 plunges to 35%38%
The reshuffle was interpreted as Starmer consolidating power, sharply lowering the exit probability.
Cabinet minister Morgan McSweeney resigns, citing responsibility for the Mandelson appointment, further eroding confidence in Starmer’s leadership
June 30 plunges to 36%15%
Cabinet minister Morgan McSweeney resigns, citing responsibility for the Mandelson appointment, further eroding confidence in Starmer’s leadership
Four senior ministers (including Jess Phillips) resign, publicly demanding Starmer’s departure
December 31 jumps to 55%7%
Four senior ministers (including Jess Phillips) resign, publicly demanding Starmer’s departure
| Clive Lewis publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation after budget fallout | Lewis’s call sparked a 4‑point rise to 54 % (peak 55 % on Nov 28). |
| Clive Lewis publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation after budget fallout | Lewis’s call sparked a 4‑point rise to 54 % (peak 55 % on Nov 28). |
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar holds a press conference urging Starmer to resign, intensifying intra‑party pressure
June 30 plunges to 44%29%
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar holds a press conference urging Starmer to resign, intensifying intra‑party pressure
BBC reports that several senior Labour ministers (including Energy Secretary Ed Miliband) publicly distance themselves from the Mandelson appointment, easing internal party
June 30 rises to 37%4%
BBC reports that several senior Labour ministers (including Energy Secretary Ed Miliband) publicly distance themselves from the Mandelson appointment, easing internal party tension and nudging the
Labour’s Scottish leader Anas Sarwar publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation amid mounting criticism of the Mandelson affair
June 30 jumps to 38%5%
Labour’s Scottish leader Anas Sarwar publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation amid mounting criticism of the Mandelson affair
Labour suffers a bruising loss in the North‑East by‑election, pushing Starmer’s approval to a historic low and prompting senior MPs to demand his resignation
June 30 drops to 38%6%
Labour suffers a bruising loss in the North‑East by‑election, pushing Starmer’s approval to a historic low and prompting senior MPs to demand his resignation
Angela Rayner resigns as Deputy Prime Minister, triggering a major cabinet reshuffle and further weakening Starmer’s standing
June 30 surges to 50%17%
Angela Rayner resigns as Deputy Prime Minister, triggering a major cabinet reshuffle and further weakening Starmer’s standing
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation, triggering a brief market rally to 38% Yes
June 30 jumps to 38%7%
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation, triggering a brief market rally to 38% Yes
| Starmer survives a confidence vote after cabinet ministers publicly rally behind him |
June 30 plunges to 34%39%
| Starmer survives a confidence vote after cabinet ministers publicly rally behind him |
Starmer survives a parliamentary vote of confidence; opposition criticism eases
June 30 plunges to 58%15%
Starmer survives a parliamentary vote of confidence; opposition criticism eases
Starmer dismisses Miliband’s resignation demand, calling it “political theatre”, which cools speculation and drives the
June 30 plunges to 33%40%
Starmer dismisses Miliband’s resignation demand, calling it “political theatre”, which cools speculation and drives the
Politics Uncensored podcast highlights Starmer’s “investigation” of briefings on Wes Streeting and growing internal dissent – the same day the
December 31 jumps to 51%12%
Politics Uncensored podcast highlights Starmer’s “investigation” of briefings on Wes Streeting and growing internal dissent – the same day the
Labour MP Jonathan Brash publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation, marking the first open Labour‑party demand and sending the
June 30 surges to 51%17%
Labour MP Jonathan Brash publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation, marking the first open Labour‑party demand and sending the
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood joins cabinet ministers urging Starmer to set a timetable for his departure
June 30 surges to 38%15%
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood joins cabinet ministers urging Starmer to set a timetable for his departure
Starmer’s approval rating hits a historic low (‑46%) as the Mandelson controversy dominates headlines, pushing the market to its highest “Yes” level
June 30 surges to 73%38%
Starmer’s approval rating hits a historic low (‑46%) as the Mandelson controversy dominates headlines, pushing the market to its highest “Yes” level
| Prime Minister Starmer is accused of “blatantly lying” about Mandelson’s security clearance;
June 30 surges to 73%40%
opposition leaders demand his resignation |
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch tables no‑confidence motion against Starmer
June 30 plunges to 33%15%
The formal parliamentary challenge pushed the market down as the likelihood of an immediate resignation seemed lower.
Peter Mandelson is dismissed as US ambassador after emails linking him to Jeffrey Epstein are published
June 30 surges to 73%50%
Peter Mandelson is dismissed as US ambassador after emails linking him to Jeffrey Epstein are published
BBC live feed shows Labour backbench revolt;
June 30 surges to 73%27%
multiple MPs publicly demand Starmer’s resignation
Starmer’s net favourability hits historic lows in YouGov poll;
June 30 drops to 33%7%
opposition parties seize on the dip, raising speculation of a leadership challenge
Starmer survives a no‑confidence motion in the Commons;
June 30 surges to 73%28%
the vote is narrowly defeated, temporarily restoring confidence and pushing the “out by 30 June?”
Ed Miliband urges Starmer to draft a resignation timetable as the party’s “reset” plan stalls after the Greens’ surge in youth polls
June 30 surges to 73%43%
Ed Miliband urges Starmer to draft a resignation timetable as the party’s “reset” plan stalls after the Greens’ surge in youth polls
Prime Minister Starmer survives a no‑confidence vote in the Commons after a last‑minute rally of Labour backbenchers
June 30 surges to 73%27%
The survival of the vote reassured some investors, spiking the “out‑by‑June 30” odds to a peak.
Starmer’s internal review of Peter Mandelson’s security vetting sparks calls for his resignation
December 31 jumps to 57%7%
The review revealed possible mis‑representations about Mandelson’s background, prompting opposition MPs and Labour back‑benchers to demand Starmer step down, pushing the market up sharply.
| Labour suffers a historic loss of 1,500 councillors in local elections;
June 30 drops to 29%13%
backbench rebellion spikes to 90 MPs demanding Starmer’s resignation ||
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar publicly calls for Keir Starmer’s resignation amid the emerging Mandelson‑Epstein scandal
December 31 surges to 59%15%
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar publicly calls for Keir Starmer’s resignation amid the emerging Mandelson‑Epstein scandal
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood joins a group of ministers urging Starmer to set a resignation timetable
December 31 jumps to 50%11%
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood joins a group of ministers urging Starmer to set a resignation timetable
SNP leader Stephen Flynn labels the Mandelson evidence “devastating and definitive”, urging Starmer to resign before the day ends
June 30 drops to 34%12%
SNP leader Stephen Flynn labels the Mandelson evidence “devastating and definitive”, urging Starmer to resign before the day ends
Lord Mandelson is dismissed as ambassador after emails linking him to Jeffrey Epstein are published, temporarily easing pressure on Starmer
June 30 dips to 32%2%
Lord Mandelson is dismissed as ambassador after emails linking him to Jeffrey Epstein are published, temporarily easing pressure on Starmer
Olly Robbins sacked as Foreign Office top official after Mandelson vetting row
June 30 jumps to 48%10%
The dismissal was interpreted as the government attempting to contain the scandal, briefly reviving “Yes” odds.
Starmer faces a rebellion as 56 Labour MPs defy a three‑line whip on a Gaza cease‑fire motion, the largest dissent since his premiership
December 31 surges to 59%15%
Starmer faces a rebellion as 56 Labour MPs defy a three‑line whip on a Gaza cease‑fire motion, the largest dissent since his premiership
More than 70 Labour MPs publicly call for Starmer’s resignation after his “reset” speech fails to quell dissent
June 30 drops to 23%7%
More than 70 Labour MPs publicly call for Starmer’s resignation after his “reset” speech fails to quell dissent
BBC reports backbench MPs begin drafting an open letter demanding Starmer’s resignation after local elections, pushing odds above 70 %
December 31 rises to 71%1%
BBC reports backbench MPs begin drafting an open letter demanding Starmer’s resignation after local elections, pushing odds above 70 %
| Labour’s leadership‑challenge rumours surge after internal memo leaks suggesting a “Wes Streeting” succession plan |
| Labour’s leadership‑challenge rumours surge after internal memo leaks suggesting a “Wes Streeting” succession plan |
| Labour suffers heavy losses in the November 2025 local elections | The poor vote share triggered a 5‑point jump to 50 % as analysts warned of mounting pressure on Starmer. |
| Labour suffers heavy losses in the November 2025 local elections | The poor vote share triggered a 5‑point jump to 50 % as analysts warned of mounting pressure on Starmer. |
Labour suffers a historic defeat in the Lewisham council elections, with Greens taking control;
December 31 drops to 39%11%
analysts warn the loss could force Starmer’s resignation
Labour suffers historic local‑election defeat, losing 1,500 councillors and ceding several London boroughs to the Greens
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
Labour suffers historic local‑election defeat, losing 1,500 councillors and ceding several London boroughs to the Greens
Parliamentary committee summons Starmer and senior officials for a 48‑hour hearing on the Mandelson vetting scandal, intensifying pressure
June 30 plunges to 33%15%
Parliamentary committee summons Starmer and senior officials for a 48‑hour hearing on the Mandelson vetting scandal, intensifying pressure
Starmer survives a “moment of peril” after senior ministers rally round him in a cabinet meeting, temporarily calming the market and nudging the
June 30 jumps to 46%8%
Starmer survives a “moment of peril” after senior ministers rally round him in a cabinet meeting, temporarily calming the market and nudging the
Labour MP Stephen Flynn (SNP) labels the Mandelson evidence “devastating and definitive,” urging Starmer to quit “by the end of the day,” which briefly lifts the “Yes”
June 30 jumps to 38%5%
Labour MP Stephen Flynn (SNP) labels the Mandelson evidence “devastating and definitive,” urging Starmer to quit “by the end of the day,” which briefly lifts the “Yes”
Sacked Foreign Office chief Olly Robbins appears on BBC Live, describing “devastating” evidence of the Mandelson appointment and urging Starmer to quit by day‑end
June 30 surges to 46%20%
Robbins’ explosive testimony revived the crisis, producing the market’s biggest single‑day jump.
Starmer fires Mandelson after further Epstein‑link evidence surfaces, sparking calls for a no‑confidence vote
June 30 jumps to 46%8%
Starmer fires Mandelson after further Epstein‑link evidence surfaces, sparking calls for a no‑confidence vote
Starmer announces a “reset” reshuffle, moving half the cabinet and appointing new chief secretary Darren Jones, which temporarily calmed internal dissent
June 30 jumps to 44%9%
Starmer announces a “reset” reshuffle, moving half the cabinet and appointing new chief secretary Darren Jones, which temporarily calmed internal dissent
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch publicly declares Starmer’s premiership “untenable”, pushing the market to a short‑term high as opposition rallies
June 30 jumps to 46%6%
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch publicly declares Starmer’s premiership “untenable”, pushing the market to a short‑term high as opposition rallies
Starmer survives a Commons vote to block a Privileges Committee inquiry into Peter Mandelson’s vetting, bolstering his position
June 30 dips to 40%3%
Starmer survives a Commons vote to block a Privileges Committee inquiry into Peter Mandelson’s vetting, bolstering his position
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar publicly calls for Starmer to quit amid the Mandelson fallout, reviving resignation rumours and lifting the market to 38 % Yes
June 30 jumps to 38%5%
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar publicly calls for Starmer to quit amid the Mandelson fallout, reviving resignation rumours and lifting the market to 38 % Yes
Starmer’s office releases a leaked WhatsApp exchange suggesting No 10 knew of security‑vetting concerns on Mandelson months earlier, sparking calls for accountability
June 30 jumps to 48%5%
Starmer’s office releases a leaked WhatsApp exchange suggesting No 10 knew of security‑vetting concerns on Mandelson months earlier, sparking calls for accountability
Guardian investigation reveals Mandelson failed security vetting;
June 30 dips to 38%2%
Starmer says he was “staggered” not to have been told
| Peter Mandelson is sacked as U.S.
ambassador following publication of emails linking him to Jeffrey Epstein |
Telegraph reports Starmer is the least‑popular UK prime minister on record, sparking fresh calls for his resignation
June 30 jumps to 43%8%
Telegraph reports Starmer is the least‑popular UK prime minister on record, sparking fresh calls for his resignation
Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner resigns after a stamp‑duty scandal, prompting fresh criticism of Starmer’s judgment and a further slide to 35 % Yes
Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner resigns after a stamp‑duty scandal, prompting fresh criticism of Starmer’s judgment and a further slide to 35 % Yes
Angela Rayner (Deputy Prime Minister) resigns, prompting a major cabinet reshuffle and raising speculation of a leadership challenge
June 30 drops to 31%8%
Angela Rayner (Deputy Prime Minister) resigns, prompting a major cabinet reshuffle and raising speculation of a leadership challenge
Labour suffers heavy losses in the first round of 2025 local elections, losing control of dozens of councils across England
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
Labour suffers heavy losses in the first round of 2025 local elections, losing control of dozens of councils across England
| Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner resigns over tax‑advice controversy | Rayner’s exit deepened the leadership crisis, driving the
| Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner resigns over tax‑advice controversy | Rayner’s exit deepened the leadership crisis, driving the
Angela Rayner (Deputy Prime Minister) resigns, prompting a major cabinet reshuffle and raising speculation of a leadership challenge
June 30 drops to 23%8%
Angela Rayner (Deputy Prime Minister) resigns, prompting a major cabinet reshuffle and raising speculation of a leadership challenge
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch declares Starmer’s position “untenable” over the Mandelson vetting row
June 30 jumps to 40%5%
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch declares Starmer’s position “untenable” over the Mandelson vetting row
Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner resigns amid the ongoing scandal, prompting a fresh surge in “out‑by‑June 30” odds
June 30 dips to 37%4%
Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner resigns amid the ongoing scandal, prompting a fresh surge in “out‑by‑June 30” odds
First major dip after a brief rally‑related boost as opposition parties begin questioning Starmer’s handling of the protest fallout
June 30 jumps to 43%8%
First major dip after a brief rally‑related boost as opposition parties begin questioning Starmer’s handling of the protest fallout
Starmer dismisses Peter Mandelson as UK ambassador after the Epstein‑related vetting scandal erupts, prompting opposition leaders to demand a no‑confidence vote and sending the
June 30 jumps to 34%8%
Starmer dismisses Peter Mandelson as UK ambassador after the Epstein‑related vetting scandal erupts, prompting opposition leaders to demand a no‑confidence vote and sending the market up to 34% Yes
Poll shows 59 % of Labour voters say Starmer’s government is “as sleazy as the previous Tory administration” – a sharp rise in public cynicism that helped push the market down to
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
Poll shows 59 % of Labour voters say Starmer’s government is “as sleazy as the previous Tory administration” – a sharp rise in public cynicism that helped push the market down to 35 % Yes
US President Donald Trump meets Prime Minister Keir Starmer at Chequers, sparking speculation about Starmer’s foreign‑policy independence and prompting a modest
December 31 jumps to 58%6%
US President Donald Trump meets Prime Minister Keir Starmer at Chequers, sparking speculation about Starmer’s foreign‑policy independence and prompting a modest
| US President Donald Trump meets Prime Minister Starmer at Chequers, drawing criticism and fueling calls for Starmer to quit ||
June 30 jumps to 42%7%
| US President Donald Trump meets Prime Minister Starmer at Chequers, drawing criticism and fueling calls for Starmer to quit ||
Former senior civil servant Olly Robbins testifies that No 10 pressured the Foreign Office to approve Mandelson despite security‑vetting warnings, sparking a wave of resignations
June 30 drops to 33%10%
Former senior civil servant Olly Robbins testifies that No 10 pressured the Foreign Office to approve Mandelson despite security‑vetting warnings, sparking a wave of resignations and a sharp drop in confidence
Labour MP Jonathan Brash publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation and a timetable for his departure
June 30 drops to 26%9%
An internal Labour revolt signalled a serious leadership threat, sending the
Labour MP Jonathan Brash publicly urges Starmer to set a resignation timetable
June 30 plunges to 38%35%
Even though the call came from a backbencher, the public nature of the demand signalled internal dissent, causing a sharp correction.
Starmer rebuffs resignation calls, stating he will “never walk away,” which steadies the market after the November 13 peak
June 30 plunges to 33%40%
Starmer rebuffs resignation calls, stating he will “never walk away,” which steadies the market after the November 13 peak
Guardian reports that Labour MPs have begun informal talks to replace Starmer with Wes Streeting after the upcoming autumn budget
December 31 jumps to 55%5%
Guardian reports that Labour MPs have begun informal talks to replace Starmer with Wes Streeting after the upcoming autumn budget
Labour front‑bench minister Vicky Foxcroft resigns over Starmer’s £5 bn benefits‑cut plan, sparking a rebellion of over 40 MPs
December 31 rises to 54%4%
Labour front‑bench minister Vicky Foxcroft resigns over Starmer’s £5 bn benefits‑cut plan, sparking a rebellion of over 40 MPs
Angela Rayner resigns as deputy prime minister, triggering a major reshuffle and a market peak of 82 % on 9 Feb 2026
December 31 jumps to 73%5%
Angela Rayner resigns as deputy prime minister, triggering a major reshuffle and a market peak of 82 % on 9 Feb 2026
Angela Rayner resigns as Deputy Prime Minister after Labour’s disastrous local‑election losses, triggering the first major cabinet reshuffle and sparking speculation about
December 31 jumps to 55%7%
Angela Rayner resigns as Deputy Prime Minister after Labour’s disastrous local‑election losses, triggering the first major cabinet reshuffle and sparking speculation about Starmer’s stability
Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner quits, prompting a sweeping cabinet reshuffle | Rayner’s exit and the ensuing reshuffle amplified speculation that Starmer’s government was
December 31 jumps to 48%7%
Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner quits, prompting a sweeping cabinet reshuffle | Rayner’s exit and the ensuing reshuffle amplified speculation that Starmer’s government was destabilising. |
Starmer condemns violent “Unite the Kingdom” rally and pledges to protect police after far‑right protest turns chaotic
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
Starmer condemns violent “Unite the Kingdom” rally and pledges to protect police after far‑right protest turns chaotic
Labour MP Clive Lewis publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation over the Mandelson scandal, marking the first MP‑level demand
June 30 drops to 35%10%
Labour MP Clive Lewis publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation over the Mandelson scandal, marking the first MP‑level demand
Former Foreign Office chief Olly Robbins testifies that No 10 pressured the department to approve Mandelson despite security warnings, intensifying calls for a no‑confidence vote
June 30 dips to 40%3%
Former Foreign Office chief Olly Robbins testifies that No 10 pressured the department to approve Mandelson despite security warnings, intensifying calls for a no‑confidence vote
BBC reports MP Jonathan Brash publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation, signalling growing internal dissent
June 30 rises to 35%2%
BBC reports MP Jonathan Brash publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation, signalling growing internal dissent
| Morgan McSweeney, Starmer’s chief of staff, appears before the Foreign Affairs Select Committee;
June 30 drops to 33%7%
his resignation is announced |
Ipsos poll finds 52 % of Britons say Starmer should stand down as PM
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
Ipsos poll finds 52 % of Britons say Starmer should stand down as PM
BBC reports that the opposition leader Kemi Badenoch declares Starmer’s position “untenable” and urges his resignation, driving the
June 30 plunges to 34%39%
BBC reports that the opposition leader Kemi Badenoch declares Starmer’s position “untenable” and urges his resignation, driving the
Prime Minister’s “unprecedented” resignation calls intensify after new evidence of Mandelson‑Epstein emails released
June 30 surges to 73%33%
The explosive email leak dramatically increased the perceived risk of Starmer being ousted, driving the
Prime Minister Starmer survives a parliamentary showdown after SNP leader Stephen Flynn demands his immediate resignation over the Mandelson scandal
June 30 surges to 73%31%
Prime Minister Starmer survives a parliamentary showdown after SNP leader Stephen Flynn demands his immediate resignation over the Mandelson scandal
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch tables a parliamentary debate calling Starmer’s position “untenable” after the Mandelson vetting revelations, intensifying calls for a
June 30 jumps to 43%8%
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch tables a parliamentary debate calling Starmer’s position “untenable” after the Mandelson vetting revelations, intensifying calls for a no‑confidence vote
Kemi Badenoch tables a parliamentary debate calling Starmer’s position “untenable” after the Mandelson vetting story breaks, sparking a wave of resignations in No 10
June 30 jumps to 43%8%
Kemi Badenoch tables a parliamentary debate calling Starmer’s position “untenable” after the Mandelson vetting story breaks, sparking a wave of resignations in No 10
| Labour MP Jonathan Brash publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation, calling the government a “psychodrama” |
June 30 dips to 40%3%
| Labour MP Jonathan Brash publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation, calling the government a “psychodrama” |
| Starmer dismisses Peter Mandelson as U.S.
ambassador after Epstein emails surface | The scandal‑driven sacking raised immediate doubts about Starmer’s judgment, lifting the
Angela Rayner resigns as Deputy Prime Minister after an independent tax‑affairs investigation, triggering a major cabinet reshuffle and sparking calls for Starmer’s ouster
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
Angela Rayner resigns as Deputy Prime Minister after an independent tax‑affairs investigation, triggering a major cabinet reshuffle and sparking calls for Starmer’s ouster
Starmer tells MPs at PMQs that “full due process” was followed for Mandelson’s appointment, a claim later contradicted by leaked documents, sparking a surge in “Yes” odds
June 30 surges to 73%40%
Starmer tells MPs at PMQs that “full due process” was followed for Mandelson’s appointment, a claim later contradicted by leaked documents, sparking a surge in “Yes” odds
Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner resigns amid growing “civil war” in Labour, triggering a reshuffle and fresh speculation on Starmer’s stability
June 30 surges to 45%22%
Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner resigns amid growing “civil war” in Labour, triggering a reshuffle and fresh speculation on Starmer’s stability
Starmer tells MPs “full due process” was followed for Mandelson’s appointment, later contradicted by evidence
June 30 plunges to 33%15%
Starmer tells MPs “full due process” was followed for Mandelson’s appointment, later contradicted by evidence
Starmer tells Parliament he gave “full due process” for Mandelson’s appointment;
December 31 drops to 55%5%
opposition cites the claim as “blatant lying” and renews resignation demands
Starmer repeats “full due process” was followed during PMQs, while opposition MPs (SNP, Conservatives) demand his immediate resignation
June 30 drops to 35%10%
Repeated defence amid fresh opposition pressure pushed the probability down sharply.
Labour MP Jonathan Brash publicly urges Starmer to set a resignation timetable, signalling growing internal dissent
June 30 jumps to 42%12%
Labour MP Jonathan Brash publicly urges Starmer to set a resignation timetable, signalling growing internal dissent
Starmer asserts “full due process” during PMQs while opposition MPs demand his resignation over Mandelson scandal
June 30 dips to 40%3%
Starmer’s defence failed to quell criticism; the parliamentary showdown nudged the
Starmer claims “full due process” was followed for Peter Mandelson’s US‑ambassador appointment during Prime Minister’s Questions, prompting opposition MPs to demand his resignation
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
Starmer claims “full due process” was followed for Peter Mandelson’s US‑ambassador appointment during Prime Minister’s Questions, prompting opposition MPs to demand his resignation
Starmer claims “full due process” for Peter Mandelson’s US ambassadorship during PMQs, prompting opposition MPs to demand his resignation
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
Starmer claims “full due process” for Peter Mandelson’s US ambassadorship during PMQs, prompting opposition MPs to demand his resignation
| Olly Robbins, top Foreign Office official, resigns amid Mandelson vetting row |
June 30 jumps to 43%8%
| Olly Robbins, top Foreign Office official, resigns amid Mandelson vetting row |
| Starmer sacks Ambassador‑designate Peter Mandelson after emails reveal a close relationship with Jeffrey Epstein |
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
| Starmer sacks Ambassador‑designate Peter Mandelson after emails reveal a close relationship with Jeffrey Epstein |
| Four Labour ministers resign, including Deputy PM Angela Rayner, after a stamp‑duty scandal;
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
Starmer faces a critical cabinet meeting ||
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch tables a parliamentary debate demanding a no‑confidence vote on Starmer, citing the Mandelson scandal
June 30 plunges to 39%28%
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch tables a parliamentary debate demanding a no‑confidence vote on Starmer, citing the Mandelson scandal
Institute for Government records Anneliese Dodds resigns as development minister in protest over Starmer’s aid cuts, adding to cabinet instability
December 31 jumps to 68%5%
Institute for Government records Anneliese Dodds resigns as development minister in protest over Starmer’s aid cuts, adding to cabinet instability
| Opposition leader Kemi Badenoch declares Starmer’s position “untenable” after new evidence on Mandelson’s vetting is released |
| Opposition leader Kemi Badenoch declares Starmer’s position “untenable” after new evidence on Mandelson’s vetting is released |
BBC notes Anas Sarwar’s dramatic press conference demanding Starmer quit, prompting a sharp market rally
December 31 jumps to 63%6%
BBC notes Anas Sarwar’s dramatic press conference demanding Starmer quit, prompting a sharp market rally
Peter Mandelson is dismissed as ambassador after emails linking him to Jeffrey Epstein are published, reigniting scandal‑driven instability
June 30 surges to 67%25%
Peter Mandelson is dismissed as ambassador after emails linking him to Jeffrey Epstein are published, reigniting scandal‑driven instability
The National publishes “Starmer urged to quit ‘by end of day’” after new evidence on the Mandelson‑Epstein link, prompting a sharp
December 31 dips to 69%3%
The National publishes “Starmer urged to quit ‘by end of day’” after new evidence on the Mandelson‑Epstein link, prompting a sharp
Starmer survives another round of criticism, keeping “Yes” probability steady
December 31 drops to 66%5%
Starmer survives another round of criticism, keeping “Yes” probability steady
BBC reports that senior minister Anneliese Dodds resigns in protest over aid‑budget cuts, adding to the cumulative resignation tally
BBC reports that senior minister Anneliese Dodds resigns in protest over aid‑budget cuts, adding to the cumulative resignation tally
Starmer defies resignation calls, insisting he will not step down despite mounting pressure
December 31 rises to 71%3%
Starmer defies resignation calls, insisting he will not step down despite mounting pressure
BBC reports that senior Labour figures (e.g., Ed Miliband) distance themselves from the Mandelson appointment, reigniting speculation of a leadership challenge
December 31 surges to 72%23%
BBC reports that senior Labour figures (e.g., Ed Miliband) distance themselves from the Mandelson appointment, reigniting speculation of a leadership challenge
Guardian live‑blog notes that Labour MP Jonathan Brash calls for Starmer’s resignation, and several ministers publicly distance themselves, sending the
December 31 jumps to 72%6%
Guardian live‑blog notes that Labour MP Jonathan Brash calls for Starmer’s resignation, and several ministers publicly distance themselves, sending the
BBC reports senior civil servant Sir Chris Wormald likely to quit after McSweeney’s resignation, adding to leadership turmoil
December 31 dips to 68%3%
BBC reports senior civil servant Sir Chris Wormald likely to quit after McSweeney’s resignation, adding to leadership turmoil
Time article outlines growing pressure on Starmer after the Mandelson‑Epstein revelations, noting multiple ministerial resignations and a dip in approval ratings
June 30 jumps to 42%5%
Time article outlines growing pressure on Starmer after the Mandelson‑Epstein revelations, noting multiple ministerial resignations and a dip in approval ratings
Prime Minister Starmer declares he was “staggering” not to have been told about Mandelson’s vetting failure and vows an investigation, briefly restoring confidence
June 30 surges to 41%25%
Prime Minister Starmer declares he was “staggering” not to have been told about Mandelson’s vetting failure and vows an investigation, briefly restoring confidence
Labour’s internal poll shows 51 % of members now favour a leadership contest, reviving resignation speculation
December 31 jumps to 67%14%
Labour’s internal poll shows 51 % of members now favour a leadership contest, reviving resignation speculation
Time article details growing calls for Starmer to resign after Mandelson’s scandal resurfaces, noting “mounting calls” and “rising pressure”
December 31 jumps to 57%7%
Time article details growing calls for Starmer to resign after Mandelson’s scandal resurfaces, noting “mounting calls” and “rising pressure”
Starmer survives a confidence‑vote after cabinet ministers rally behind him;
December 31 drops to 49%13%
the brief show of unity pulls the market down
Starmer declares he will not “walk away” and survives a cabinet reshuffle after the resignation of adviser Morgan McSweeney, pushing the market back up
December 31 jumps to 66%12%
Starmer declares he will not “walk away” and survives a cabinet reshuffle after the resignation of adviser Morgan McSweeney, pushing the market back up
Tory leader Kemi Badenoch declares Starmer’s position “untenable” after the Mandelson vetting revelations;
December 31 jumps to 60%7%
SNP leader Stephen Flynn urges immediate resignation
Anas Sarwar reiterates his resignation demand at a press conference, pushing the
December 31 surges to 67%15%
Anas Sarwar reiterates his resignation demand at a press conference, pushing the
Prime Minister’s Questions: Starmer refuses to “walk away,” but admits “political turmoil,” temporarily stabilising the market
December 31 drops to 53%14%
Prime Minister’s Questions: Starmer refuses to “walk away,” but admits “political turmoil,” temporarily stabilising the market
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar holds a press conference demanding Starmer quit, reigniting leadership doubts and sending the
June 30 plunges to 16%34%
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar holds a press conference demanding Starmer quit, reigniting leadership doubts and sending the
Starmer reveals for the first time (via GB News) the exact date (Jan 29 2025) the security vetting was denied and that he only learned of it on April 14 2025
June 30 drops to 45%6%
The delayed disclosure calmed the market slightly as the Prime Minister appeared transparent, causing a modest dip.
| Labour MP Anas Sarwar announces a dramatic press‑conference call for Starmer’s resignation |
| Labour MP Anas Sarwar announces a dramatic press‑conference call for Starmer’s resignation |
Labour MP Jonathan Brash publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation, reviving speculation
December 31 surges to 71%22%
Labour MP Jonathan Brash publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation, reviving speculation
Starmer announces a cabinet reshuffle and retains backing from senior Labour figures, lifting the
December 31 jumps to 52%6%
Starmer announces a cabinet reshuffle and retains backing from senior Labour figures, lifting the
Former chief of staff Morgan McSweeney resigns over the Mandelson row, prompting a sharp drop
December 31 plunges to 46%19%
Former chief of staff Morgan McSweeney resigns over the Mandelson row, prompting a sharp drop
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar makes a surprise press‑conference demanding Starmer quit, prompting a flurry of media coverage
December 31 drops to 62%12%
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar makes a surprise press‑conference demanding Starmer quit, prompting a flurry of media coverage
Kemi Badenoch (UK opposition leader) declares Starmer’s position “untenable” after the Mandelson fallout, pushing the
December 31 jumps to 67%14%
Kemi Badenoch (UK opposition leader) declares Starmer’s position “untenable” after the Mandelson fallout, pushing the
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar announces a last‑minute press conference demanding Starmer quit, causing a sharp market dip
December 31 drops to 54%10%
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar announces a last‑minute press conference demanding Starmer quit, causing a sharp market dip
Former Foreign Office chief Olly Robbins testifies that No 10 pressured the department to approve Mandelson’s appointment, prompting calls for a no‑confidence vote
June 30 dips to 45%3%
Former Foreign Office chief Olly Robbins testifies that No 10 pressured the department to approve Mandelson’s appointment, prompting calls for a no‑confidence vote
Labour MP Jonathan Brash publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation, citing “psychodrama” in Westminster
December 31 jumps to 74%6%
Labour MP Jonathan Brash publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation, citing “psychodrama” in Westminster
| Angela Rayner (Deputy Prime Minister) announces she will not stand for re‑election as deputy after a tax‑scandal inquiry, prompting a major cabinet reshuffle | Loss of the
December 31 rises to 73%4%
| Angela Rayner (Deputy Prime Minister) announces she will not stand for re‑election as deputy after a tax‑scandal inquiry, prompting a major cabinet reshuffle | Loss of the deputy heightened perception of a collapsing government, pushing the
BBC reports that senior Labour MPs (including Clive Lewis) publicly urge Starmer to step down, widening the leadership challenge narrative
December 31 jumps to 70%5%
BBC reports that senior Labour MPs (including Clive Lewis) publicly urge Starmer to step down, widening the leadership challenge narrative
Labour MP Clive Lewis publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation, marking the first parliamentary demand since the scandal broke
June 30 drops to 31%8%
Labour MP Clive Lewis publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation, marking the first parliamentary demand since the scandal broke
BBC reports that former communications chief Matthew Doyle pushed for a secret diplomatic appointment, adding to accusations that Starmer misled Parliament
December 31 drops to 64%7%
BBC reports that former communications chief Matthew Doyle pushed for a secret diplomatic appointment, adding to accusations that Starmer misled Parliament
Starmer survives a no‑confidence challenge;
December 31 jumps to 71%7%
cabinet publicly backs him, causing a short dip
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch tables a parliamentary debate calling Starmer’s position “untenable” over the Mandelson scandal
June 30 jumps to 51%8%
Badenoch’s formal challenge signalled a possible no‑confidence vote, driving the
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation, prompting a brief market dip
December 31 drops to 65%6%
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation, prompting a brief market dip
BBC reports senior Labour ministers publicly back Starmer after Sarwar’s surprise resignation‑call the previous week, temporarily calming markets
December 31 drops to 50%5%
BBC reports senior Labour ministers publicly back Starmer after Sarwar’s surprise resignation‑call the previous week, temporarily calming markets
Junior minister Josh Simons resigns despite being cleared, adding to the perception of a collapsing government
December 31 drops to 65%6%
Junior minister Josh Simons resigns despite being cleared, adding to the perception of a collapsing government
Sacked Foreign Office chief Olly Robbins testifies that No 10 pressured officials to approve Mandelson, intensifying calls for a no‑confidence vote
December 31 jumps to 53%5%
Sacked Foreign Office chief Olly Robbins testifies that No 10 pressured officials to approve Mandelson, intensifying calls for a no‑confidence vote
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar calls for Starmer to quit, sending the
December 31 jumps to 71%6%
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar calls for Starmer to quit, sending the
Former Foreign Office chief Olly Robbins alleges “constant pressure” from No 10 to approve Mandelson’s appointment
June 30 jumps to 43%8%
Robbins’ testimony suggested the Prime Minister’s office had overridden security advice, reviving doubts about Starmer’s judgment and pushing the market back up.
| Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner resigns amid the Mandelson scandal, prompting a major cabinet reshuffle |
| Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner resigns amid the Mandelson scandal, prompting a major cabinet reshuffle |
Labour MP Clive Lewis publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation, reigniting media scrutiny of the Mandelson affair
December 31 jumps to 71%7%
Labour MP Clive Lewis publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation, reigniting media scrutiny of the Mandelson affair
Labour MP Clive Lewis publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation over alleged misleading of Parliament on the Mandelson case
June 30 drops to 37%7%
Labour MP Clive Lewis publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation over alleged misleading of Parliament on the Mandelson case
Opposition leader Kemi Badenoch declares Starmer’s position “untenable” following the Mandelson vetting revelations
June 30 rises to 48%3%
Opposition leader Kemi Badenoch declares Starmer’s position “untenable” following the Mandelson vetting revelations
Starmer announces a cabinet reshuffle, removing the deputy prime minister and several ministers linked to the scandal, which temporarily eases concerns
June 30 dips to 50%1%
Starmer announces a cabinet reshuffle, removing the deputy prime minister and several ministers linked to the scandal, which temporarily eases concerns
| Labour MP Clive Lewis becomes the first MP to publicly call for Starmer’s resignation over the Mandelson affair | First MP‑level resignation call added credibility to the
December 31 dips to 69%2%
| Labour MP Clive Lewis becomes the first MP to publicly call for Starmer’s resignation over the Mandelson affair | First MP‑level resignation call added credibility to the crisis, sustaining high odds. |
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch declares Starmer’s position “untenable” over the Mandelson vetting row, intensifying opposition calls for resignation
December 31 drops to 68%5%
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch declares Starmer’s position “untenable” over the Mandelson vetting row, intensifying opposition calls for resignation
Former senior civil servant Olly Robbins testifies that No 10 pressured the Foreign Office to approve Mandelson, intensifying calls for a no‑confidence vote
June 30 rises to 48%3%
Former senior civil servant Olly Robbins testifies that No 10 pressured the Foreign Office to approve Mandelson, intensifying calls for a no‑confidence vote
Foreign Office civil servant Sir Olly Robbins sacked over the Mandelson vetting scandal, intensifying pressure on Starmer
December 31 drops to 61%7%
Foreign Office civil servant Sir Olly Robbins sacked over the Mandelson vetting scandal, intensifying pressure on Starmer
Starmer’s undisclosed visit to Palantir’s Washington office later reported, raising fresh ministerial‑code breach accusations
December 31 jumps to 68%12%
Starmer’s undisclosed visit to Palantir’s Washington office later reported, raising fresh ministerial‑code breach accusations
Mandelson formally assumes Washington post despite earlier vetting concerns, sparking fresh criticism of Starmer’s judgment
December 31 jumps to 55%6%
Mandelson formally assumes Washington post despite earlier vetting concerns, sparking fresh criticism of Starmer’s judgment
Starmer says he is “absolutely furious” after learning that Peter Mandelson failed security vetting before being appointed U.S. ambassador
June 30 jumps to 45%10%
Starmer says he is “absolutely furious” after learning that Peter Mandelson failed security vetting before being appointed U.S. ambassador
Kemi Badenoch (Tory leader) declares Starmer’s position “untenable” after the Mandelson vetting scandal breaks, prompting a sharp market sell‑off on the “out by 30 June?” outcome
June 30 jumps to 45%11%
Kemi Badenoch (Tory leader) declares Starmer’s position “untenable” after the Mandelson vetting scandal breaks, prompting a sharp market sell‑off on the “out by 30 June?” outcome
Starmer “furious” after learning Lord Peter Mandelson failed security vetting; Kemi Badenoch says his position “untenable”
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
The revelation that Mandelson’s appointment had been made despite a failed vetting check sparked immediate calls from the Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch for Starmer to resign, sending the “Yes” probability sharply lower.
Starmer publicly declares he was “absolutely furious” to learn Mandelson had failed security vetting before his appointment
June 30 jumps to 43%9%
Starmer’s admission of being misled intensified media scrutiny and opposition demands, lifting the “out‑by‑June 30” odds.
Mandelson is formally appointed U.S.
June 30 jumps to 45%10%
ambassador despite the earlier vetting denial, prompting immediate calls from opposition MPs for Starmer’s resignation
Starmer appoints Peter Mandelson as U.S.
June 30 surges to 48%25%
ambassador despite pending security vetting
Starmer “absolutely furious” after learning Peter Mandelson failed security vetting before his U.S. ambassadorship appointment
December 31 jumps to 56%5%
Starmer “absolutely furious” after learning Peter Mandelson failed security vetting before his U.S. ambassadorship appointment
Peter Mandelson officially begins as UK ambassador to the United States;
December 31 rises to 73%2%
media note the controversy surrounding his security clearance
Peter Mandelson formally assumes U.S.
December 31 rises to 48%4%
ambassadorship; opposition MPs launch immediate calls for Starmer’s resignation over the appointment
| Morgan McSweeney (Starmer’s chief of staff) resigns, citing responsibility for the Mandelson appointment | The departure of a senior adviser signalled internal turmoil, nudging
December 31 rises to 71%3%
| Morgan McSweeney (Starmer’s chief of staff) resigns, citing responsibility for the Mandelson appointment | The departure of a senior adviser signalled internal turmoil, nudging the
Labour MP Clive Lewis publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation, marking the first open MP demand and lifting “out‑by‑June 30” probabilities
June 30 dips to 51%3%
Labour MP Clive Lewis publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation, marking the first open MP demand and lifting “out‑by‑June 30” probabilities
Starmer survives a confidence vote in Parliament, temporarily stabilising the
December 31 jumps to 67%6%
Starmer survives a confidence vote in Parliament, temporarily stabilising the
Reform UK’s Nigel Farage demands Starmer resign after evidence he misled Parliament on Mandelson’s clearance
December 31 drops to 64%7%
Reform UK’s Nigel Farage demands Starmer resign after evidence he misled Parliament on Mandelson’s clearance
Opposition leader Kemi Badenoch publicly demands Starmer’s resignation, pushing the market lower
December 31 drops to 61%7%
Opposition leader Kemi Badenoch publicly demands Starmer’s resignation, pushing the market lower
| Kemi Badenoch (Conservative leader) labels Starmer’s position “untenable” after the Mandelson scandal, calling for his immediate resignation | Opposition pressure reinforced
December 31 dips to 68%2%
| Kemi Badenoch (Conservative leader) labels Starmer’s position “untenable” after the Mandelson scandal, calling for his immediate resignation | Opposition pressure reinforced market expectations of a possible ouster, keeping the
Opposition MPs (SNP, Lib Dem, Reform UK) demand Starmer’s resignation after evidence that he misled Parliament on Mandelson’s appointment
June 30 plunges to 23%28%
Opposition MPs (SNP, Lib Dem, Reform UK) demand Starmer’s resignation after evidence that he misled Parliament on Mandelson’s appointment
Morgan McSweeney, Starmer’s chief of staff, resigns, taking responsibility for advising the Mandelson appointment
June 30 plunges to 39%28%
Morgan McSweeney, Starmer’s chief of staff, resigns, taking responsibility for advising the Mandelson appointment
BBC reports that senior civil servant Sir Olly Robbins was sacked for defending the Mandelson vetting, intensifying calls for a no‑confidence vote
June 30 drops to 44%5%
BBC reports that senior civil servant Sir Olly Robbins was sacked for defending the Mandelson vetting, intensifying calls for a no‑confidence vote
Prime Minister’s furious response at a France summit, calling his own position “untenable” after the Mandelson revelations
December 31 drops to 68%9%
Prime Minister’s furious response at a France summit, calling his own position “untenable” after the Mandelson revelations
Starmer survives a no‑confidence motion after his cabinet rallies behind him, temporarily halting the resignation surge
December 31 drops to 64%7%
Starmer survives a no‑confidence motion after his cabinet rallies behind him, temporarily halting the resignation surge
Prime Minister Starmer faces a no‑confidence motion after the Mandelson row;
June 30 jumps to 62%5%
opposition parties and SNP leader Stephen Flynn demand his resignation, pushing “Yes” to a market high
BBC reports that Sir Olly Robbins was sacked after exposing No 10 pressure to approve Mandelson
December 31 jumps to 71%9%
BBC reports that Sir Olly Robbins was sacked after exposing No 10 pressure to approve Mandelson
Anneliese Dodds resigns as Development Minister in protest over Starmer’s aid cuts | The first senior ministerial resignation signalled internal dissent, nudging the “Yes”
December 31 jumps to 41%6%
Anneliese Dodds resigns as Development Minister in protest over Starmer’s aid cuts | The first senior ministerial resignation signalled internal dissent, nudging the “Yes” probability higher. |
Starmer publicly denies knowledge of Mandelson’s vetting failure, prompting opposition calls for a no‑confidence vote
June 30 plunges to 51%28%
Starmer publicly denies knowledge of Mandelson’s vetting failure, prompting opposition calls for a no‑confidence vote
| Prime Minister Keir Starmer publicly declares he was “staggered” to learn Mandelson failed vetting and vows to “walk away” from power if forced to resign | Starmer’s admission
December 31 jumps to 70%8%
| Prime Minister Keir Starmer publicly declares he was “staggered” to learn Mandelson failed vetting and vows to “walk away” from power if forced to resign | Starmer’s admission of being blindsided amplified speculation of a leadership crisis, driving the
Starmer tells MPs he was “not prepared to walk away” after the resignation of chief adviser Morgan McSweeney amid the Mandelson scandal
December 31 jumps to 71%9%
Starmer tells MPs he was “not prepared to walk away” after the resignation of chief adviser Morgan McSweeney amid the Mandelson scandal
| Starmer publicly denies having misled Parliament about Mandelson’s clearance, sparking heated Commons debate |
| Starmer publicly denies having misled Parliament about Mandelson’s clearance, sparking heated Commons debate |
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar calls for Starmer’s resignation, intensifying pressure
December 31 drops to 62%9%
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar calls for Starmer’s resignation, intensifying pressure
Starmer publicly refuses to “walk away” after senior adviser Morgan McSweeney resigns amid Mandelson‑vetting row
December 31 jumps to 71%11%
Starmer publicly refuses to “walk away” after senior adviser Morgan McSweeney resigns amid Mandelson‑vetting row
Starmer survives a confidence‑vote in the Commons despite opposition calls for his resignation over the Mandelson scandal
June 30 surges to 67%45%
Starmer survives a confidence‑vote in the Commons despite opposition calls for his resignation over the Mandelson scandal
Senior civil servant Sir Olly Robbins testifies that No 10 pressured the Foreign Office to approve Mandelson, prompting opposition leader Kemi Badenoch to label Starmer’s position
December 31 jumps to 71%14%
Senior civil servant Sir Olly Robbins testifies that No 10 pressured the Foreign Office to approve Mandelson, prompting opposition leader Kemi Badenoch to label Starmer’s position “untenable”
BBC reports Mandelson was appointed despite a “clearance denied” vetting recommendation, intensifying pressure on Starmer
December 31 surges to 77%15%
BBC reports Mandelson was appointed despite a “clearance denied” vetting recommendation, intensifying pressure on Starmer
Morgan McSweeney (Starmer’s chief of staff) resigns, taking responsibility for the Mandelson appointment, sparking leadership‑challenge rumours
June 30 dips to 49%4%
Morgan McSweeney (Starmer’s chief of staff) resigns, taking responsibility for the Mandelson appointment, sparking leadership‑challenge rumours
Prime Minister Keir Starmer publicly admits he was “staggered” to learn Mandelson’s vetting failure and says he was not told, sparking fresh calls for his resignation
December 31 jumps to 57%7%
Prime Minister Keir Starmer publicly admits he was “staggered” to learn Mandelson’s vetting failure and says he was not told, sparking fresh calls for his resignation
Parliamentary committee summons former chief of staff Olly Robbins to testify on the Mandelson appointment, reviving pressure on Starmer and pushing odds higher
June 30 jumps to 54%12%
Parliamentary committee summons former chief of staff Olly Robbins to testify on the Mandelson appointment, reviving pressure on Starmer and pushing odds higher
Starmer sacks Foreign Office permanent secretary Olly Robbins after Robbins reveals pressure to approve Mandelson despite failed vetting
June 30 surges to 79%24%
Starmer sacks Foreign Office permanent secretary Olly Robbins after Robbins reveals pressure to approve Mandelson despite failed vetting
Starmer sacks Foreign Office Permanent Secretary Olly Robbins after Robbins reveals pressure to approve Mandelson’s appointment
June 30 surges to 43%21%
Starmer sacks Foreign Office Permanent Secretary Olly Robbins after Robbins reveals pressure to approve Mandelson’s appointment
Starmer fires senior adviser Morgan McSweeney after the Mandelson vetting row, signalling a firm response and briefly calming markets
June 30 jumps to 42%14%
Starmer fires senior adviser Morgan McSweeney after the Mandelson vetting row, signalling a firm response and briefly calming markets
Starmer says he was “staggered” to learn Lord Peter Mandelson failed security vetting, sparking fresh calls for his resignation
December 31 jumps to 62%11%
Starmer says he was “staggered” to learn Lord Peter Mandelson failed security vetting, sparking fresh calls for his resignation
Foreign Office admits it overrode security advice and appointed Mandelson as US ambassador despite clearance denial, prompting Tory leader Kemi Badenoch to call Starmer’s position
June 30 surges to 57%22%
Foreign Office admits it overrode security advice and appointed Mandelson as US ambassador despite clearance denial, prompting Tory leader Kemi Badenoch to call Starmer’s position “untenable”
Starmer’s government survives a “crunch vote” on the Northern Ireland veterans bill after whipping MPs, easing resignation fears
June 30 surges to 53%31%
Starmer’s government survives a “crunch vote” on the Northern Ireland veterans bill after whipping MPs, easing resignation fears
UK Security Vetting rejects Peter Mandelson’s clearance for the U.S.
June 30 jumps to 35%5%
ambassadorship, but the Foreign Office later over‑rules the decision
UK security vetting rejects Peter Mandelson for U.S.
December 31 surges to 60%16%
ambassadorship, but Starmer proceeds with appointment
UK Security Services reveal Peter Mandelson failed the January 2025 security vetting, but the Foreign Office over‑ruled the decision and proceeded with his US ambassadorship
December 31 jumps to 50%6%
UK Security Services reveal Peter Mandelson failed the January 2025 security vetting, but the Foreign Office over‑ruled the decision and proceeded with his US ambassadorship
UK Foreign Office admits it over‑ruled security vetting and approved Peter Mandelson as U.S.
December 31 drops to 44%6%
ambassador despite a “failed” clearance
Starmer “staggering” that he was not told Lord Peter Mandelson failed security vetting, sparking the first major parliamentary questioning of his judgment
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
Starmer “staggering” that he was not told Lord Peter Mandelson failed security vetting, sparking the first major parliamentary questioning of his judgment
Olly Robbins, senior Foreign Office official, publicly alleges “constant pressure” from No 10 to approve Peter Mandelson’s US‑ambassador appointment despite failed security vetting
December 31 jumps to 50%6%
Olly Robbins, senior Foreign Office official, publicly alleges “constant pressure” from No 10 to approve Peter Mandelson’s US‑ambassador appointment despite failed security vetting
Former Foreign Office chief Olly Robbins testifies that No 10 pressured the department to approve Peter Mandelson despite failed security vetting, sparking a wave of calls for
June 30 jumps to 34%8%
Former Foreign Office chief Olly Robbins testifies that No 10 pressured the department to approve Peter Mandelson despite failed security vetting, sparking a wave of calls for Starmer’s resignation
Security‑vetting failure for Peter Mandelson revealed, showing he had been rejected in January 2025 but later appointed as U.K. ambassador to Washington
December 31 jumps to 49%7%
Security‑vetting failure for Peter Mandelson revealed, showing he had been rejected in January 2025 but later appointed as U.K. ambassador to Washington
UK Foreign Office reveals Peter Mandelson failed security vetting for the U.S.
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
ambassadorship, sparking immediate calls for Starmer’s resignation
UK security vetting finds Peter Mandelson failed clearance for US ambassadorship
June 30 surges to 55%24%
UK security vetting finds Peter Mandelson failed clearance for US ambassadorship
| UK Foreign Office admits Peter Mandelson failed security vetting in January 2025, but appointment proceeded |
| UK Foreign Office admits Peter Mandelson failed security vetting in January 2025, but appointment proceeded |
Olly Robbins tells MPs No 10 put “constant pressure” on the Foreign Office to approve Peter Mandelson’s ambassadorship despite security‑vetting concerns
June 30 jumps to 34%8%
The revelation that senior civil servants were pressured to ignore vetting warnings sparked a fresh call for Starmer’s resignation, pushing the market up.
| Olly Robbins (top Foreign Office civil servant) testifies that No 10 pressured the department to approve Peter Mandelson’s US‑ambassador appointment despite failed security
December 31 jumps to 55%7%
| Olly Robbins (top Foreign Office civil servant) testifies that No 10 pressured the department to approve Peter Mandelson’s US‑ambassador appointment despite failed security vetting | Revelation of direct No 10 interference raised doubts about Starmer’s control, lifting “Yes” odds. |
Peter Mandelson’s security‑vetting failure revealed, prompting criticism of Starmer’s appointment of him as U.S. ambassador
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
Peter Mandelson’s security‑vetting failure revealed, prompting criticism of Starmer’s appointment of him as U.S. ambassador
Peter Mandelson fails UK security vetting for US ambassadorship, but appointment proceeds after Foreign Office overruling
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
Peter Mandelson fails UK security vetting for US ambassadorship, but appointment proceeds after Foreign Office overruling
Starmer’s Downing Street refurbishment bill of £30,000 sparks public outrage and calls for his resignation, pushing the market down to 35% Yes
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
Starmer’s Downing Street refurbishment bill of £30,000 sparks public outrage and calls for his resignation, pushing the market down to 35% Yes
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