**No Supreme Court vacancy appears likely in 2026, consistent with the 79.5% implied probability traders assign to that outcome.** The court's two oldest members—Clarence Thomas, age 78, and Samuel Alito, age 76—have issued no retirement announcements or signals of departure this year, and both previously indicated they intend to serve through at least the end of 2026. In early August, Alito directly addressed speculation by stating he is “here for another term,” following an erroneous June report that briefly fueled rumors. Younger justices, including Chief Justice John Roberts and Sonia Sotomayor (both 71), show no reported health concerns or plans to step down. Earlier 2026 discussion focused on possible strategic timing ahead of midterms, yet the continued absence of confirmed retirements, adverse developments, or official statements has solidified market expectations that the current nine-justice composition will remain intact through December.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$19,031 Vol.
$19,031 Vol.
はい
$19,031 Vol.
$19,031 Vol.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...**No Supreme Court vacancy appears likely in 2026, consistent with the 79.5% implied probability traders assign to that outcome.** The court's two oldest members—Clarence Thomas, age 78, and Samuel Alito, age 76—have issued no retirement announcements or signals of departure this year, and both previously indicated they intend to serve through at least the end of 2026. In early August, Alito directly addressed speculation by stating he is “here for another term,” following an erroneous June report that briefly fueled rumors. Younger justices, including Chief Justice John Roberts and Sonia Sotomayor (both 71), show no reported health concerns or plans to step down. Earlier 2026 discussion focused on possible strategic timing ahead of midterms, yet the continued absence of confirmed retirements, adverse developments, or official statements has solidified market expectations that the current nine-justice composition will remain intact through December.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問