The May 5 Tony Award nominations have sharpened trader focus on Best Book of a Musical, with Schmigadoon! emerging as the frontrunner on the strength of its 12 total nods and Cinco Paul’s witty, genre-savvy script adapted from the popular Apple TV+ series. The Lost Boys sits second at 23.5 percent after also earning 12 nominations for its book by David Hornsby and Chris Hoch, reflecting broad industry enthusiasm for the vampire-musical hybrid. Titanique’s Marla Mindelle, Constantine Rousouli and Tye Blue hold 14.1 percent on the back of four nominations and strong word-of-mouth for their irreverent Titanic parody, while Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) trails at 5.2 percent despite eight overall nods. With the ceremony still weeks away, late campaign momentum and guild buzz could shift these market-implied odds.