**U.S. recognition of María Corina Machado as Venezuela’s leader by December 31 faces near-certain trader consensus against it at 96.6 percent.** Following the January 2026 U.S. operation that removed Nicolás Maduro, the Trump administration installed and recognized Delcy Rodríguez as interim president, reestablished diplomatic ties with her government, and prioritized stabilization and negotiations that sidelined Machado and Edmundo González. Recent rounds of talks have proceeded without opposition leaders, and U.S. statements have emphasized continuity with the current interim authorities rather than installing Machado. Machado, the 2025 Nobel laureate, remains in exile, has publicly criticized the process, and plans a return only by late 2026 to contest future elections. This alignment of U.S. policy with Rodríguez’s interim role, combined with the absence of any announced shift toward recognizing Machado as head of state, underpins the strong market pricing. While a sudden policy reversal, breakthrough elections favoring her, or major diplomatic rupture could theoretically alter the outcome before year-end, no such catalysts have emerged in recent months.