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icon for 2026年は記録的に最も暑い年の中でどこにランクされますか？
気候と科学·天気と科学

2026年は記録的に最も暑い年の中でどこにランクされますか？

icon for 2026年は記録的に最も暑い年の中でどこにランクされますか？
気候と科学·天気と科学

2026年は記録的に最も暑い年の中でどこにランクされますか？

1 75%

2 23%

3 <1%

4 <1%

Polymarket

$3,481,421 Vol.

1 75%

2 23%

3 <1%

4 <1%

Polymarket

$3,481,421 Vol.

1

$631,269 Vol.

75%

2

$421,178 Vol.

23%

3

$510,802 Vol.

1%

4

$531,082 Vol.

<1%

5

$843,445 Vol.

<1%

6位以下

$543,644 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Recent record global temperatures, including August 2026 tying or surpassing the hottest month on record at 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels and the June–August period ranking as the warmest summer in ERA5 data, combined with a strengthening El Niño, have driven trader consensus toward a first-place finish for 2026. Year-to-date anomalies through August place the year second behind 2024, but the El Niño's ocean heat release and background anthropogenic warming support projections that could close or reverse that gap by year-end. Official agencies like NOAA and Copernicus note high odds of a top-three finish while highlighting forecast uncertainty from remaining months and model variability, aligning with the market's 74.5% implied probability for first place.

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.

Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.

If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.

This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$3,481,421
終了日
2027/03/02
マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET

リゾルバー

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Recent record global temperatures, including August 2026 tying or surpassing the hottest month on record at 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels and the June–August period ranking as the warmest summer in ERA5 data, combined with a strengthening El Niño, have driven trader consensus toward a first-place finish for 2026. Year-to-date anomalies through August place the year second behind 2024, but the El Niño's ocean heat release and background anthropogenic warming support projections that could close or reverse that gap by year-end. Official agencies like NOAA and Copernicus note high odds of a top-three finish while highlighting forecast uncertainty from remaining months and model variability, aligning with the market's 74.5% implied probability for first place.

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.

Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.

If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.

This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$3,481,421
終了日
2027/03/02
マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET

リゾルバー

0x2F5e3684c...

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よくある質問

「2026年は記録的に最も暑い年の中でどこにランクされますか？」はPolymarket上の6個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「1」で75%、次いで「2」が23%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、75¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に75%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「2026年は記録的に最も暑い年の中でどこにランクされますか？」は$3.5 millionの総取引量を生み出しています（Nov 12, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「2026年は記録的に最も暑い年の中でどこにランクされますか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている6個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「2026年は記録的に最も暑い年の中でどこにランクされますか？」の現在のフロントランナーは「1」で75%であり、市場がこの結果に75%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「2」で23%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

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