Current top large language models from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google sit at roughly 1500–1506 on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard, making the 1550 threshold a substantial leap that traders view as unlikely to occur before 2027. This positioning explains the 58.5% market-implied probability on “None in 2026,” as recent releases such as Claude Opus 4.7 and GPT-5.5 have delivered incremental gains rather than the larger jumps needed to clear the bar quickly. Anthropic holds the strongest implied odds among named companies at 32% thanks to its edge in coding and multi-turn reasoning benchmarks, while Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro and OpenAI’s latest variants trail slightly behind. With only months remaining in 2026 and no confirmed model on track for a decisive 40-plus-point surge, the market consensus reflects realistic expectations around scaling limits and deployment timelines.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年に該当なし 57%
Anthropic 34%
Google 11%
OpenAI 2.9%
$54,452 Vol.
$54,452 Vol.
2026/12/31
2026年に該当なし
57%
Anthropic
34%
11%
OpenAI
3%
xAI
2%
アリババ
1%
ミストラル
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
2026年に該当なし 57%
Anthropic 34%
Google 11%
OpenAI 2.9%
$54,452 Vol.
$54,452 Vol.
2026/12/31
2026年に該当なし
$10,084 Vol.
57%
Anthropic
$6,982 Vol.
34%
$7,388 Vol.
11%
OpenAI
$7,444 Vol.
3%
xAI
$5,414 Vol.
2%
アリババ
$4,750 Vol.
1%
ミストラル
$3,688 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$4,795 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$3,908 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Current top large language models from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google sit at roughly 1500–1506 on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard, making the 1550 threshold a substantial leap that traders view as unlikely to occur before 2027. This positioning explains the 58.5% market-implied probability on “None in 2026,” as recent releases such as Claude Opus 4.7 and GPT-5.5 have delivered incremental gains rather than the larger jumps needed to clear the bar quickly. Anthropic holds the strongest implied odds among named companies at 32% thanks to its edge in coding and multi-turn reasoning benchmarks, while Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro and OpenAI’s latest variants trail slightly behind. With only months remaining in 2026 and no confirmed model on track for a decisive 40-plus-point surge, the market consensus reflects realistic expectations around scaling limits and deployment timelines.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
マーケット開始日： Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
音量
$54,452終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Current top large language models from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google sit at roughly 1500–1506 on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard, making the 1550 threshold a substantial leap that traders view as unlikely to occur before 2027. This positioning explains the 58.5% market-implied probability on “None in 2026,” as recent releases such as Claude Opus 4.7 and GPT-5.5 have delivered incremental gains rather than the larger jumps needed to clear the bar quickly. Anthropic holds the strongest implied odds among named companies at 32% thanks to its edge in coding and multi-turn reasoning benchmarks, while Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro and OpenAI’s latest variants trail slightly behind. With only months remaining in 2026 and no confirmed model on track for a decisive 40-plus-point surge, the market consensus reflects realistic expectations around scaling limits and deployment timelines.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
音量
$54,452終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Current top large language models from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google sit at roughly 1500–1506 on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard, making the 1550 threshold a substantial leap that traders view as unlikely to occur before 2027. This positioning explains the 58.5% market-implied probability on “None in 2026,” as recent releases such as Claude Opus 4.7 and GPT-5.5 have delivered incremental gains rather than the larger jumps needed to clear the bar quickly. Anthropic holds the strongest implied odds among named companies at 32% thanks to its edge in coding and multi-turn reasoning benchmarks, while Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro and OpenAI’s latest variants trail slightly behind. With only months remaining in 2026 and no confirmed model on track for a decisive 40-plus-point surge, the market consensus reflects realistic expectations around scaling limits and deployment timelines.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問