FIFA's repeated affirmations that Iran's World Cup 2026 participation remains unchanged, coupled with the Iranian Football Federation's recent confirmation of attendance despite geopolitical tensions, have solidified trader consensus at 85.2% for no replacement. In early May 2026, Iran issued conditions including visa guarantees for all personnel and security assurances amid US visa restrictions on IRGC-linked officials, but a Tehran send-off ceremony for the national team signals commitment to preparations for Group G matches on US soil against Belgium, Egypt, and New Zealand. Proposals to insert Italy—rejected by both FIFA and Italian officials emphasizing pitch-earned qualification—or AFC runners-up like UAE have gained no traction. Only an official Iranian withdrawal over unresolved visa disputes or unprecedented FIFA intervention could shift odds, though both appear improbable given recent stabilizations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日No Replacement 85.1%
Italy 6.3%
UAE 4.4%
Other <1%
$30,511 Vol.
$30,511 Vol.
2026/08/31
No Replacement
85%
Italy
6%
UAE
4%
Other
1%
Bolivia
<1%
No Replacement 85.1%
Italy 6.3%
UAE 4.4%
Other <1%
$30,511 Vol.
$30,511 Vol.
2026/08/31
No Replacement
$8,328 Vol.
85%
Italy
$15,302 Vol.
6%
UAE
$2,961 Vol.
4%
Other
$2,280 Vol.
1%
Bolivia
$1,641 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve in favor of the men’s national team that is confirmed by FIFA to replace the Football Federation Islamic Republic of Iran (IR) at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If an unlisted men’s national team is officially announced to replace Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, this market will resolve to “Other”
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no confirmation that any team will replace Iran within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “No Replacement”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.FIFA's repeated affirmations that Iran's World Cup 2026 participation remains unchanged, coupled with the Iranian Football Federation's recent confirmation of attendance despite geopolitical tensions, have solidified trader consensus at 85.2% for no replacement. In early May 2026, Iran issued conditions including visa guarantees for all personnel and security assurances amid US visa restrictions on IRGC-linked officials, but a Tehran send-off ceremony for the national team signals commitment to preparations for Group G matches on US soil against Belgium, Egypt, and New Zealand. Proposals to insert Italy—rejected by both FIFA and Italian officials emphasizing pitch-earned qualification—or AFC runners-up like UAE have gained no traction. Only an official Iranian withdrawal over unresolved visa disputes or unprecedented FIFA intervention could shift odds, though both appear improbable given recent stabilizations.
This market will resolve in favor of the men’s national team that is confirmed by FIFA to replace the Football Federation Islamic Republic of Iran (IR) at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If an unlisted men’s national team is officially announced to replace Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, this market will resolve to “Other”
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no confirmation that any team will replace Iran within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “No Replacement”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If an unlisted men’s national team is officially announced to replace Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, this market will resolve to “Other”
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no confirmation that any team will replace Iran within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “No Replacement”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 24, 2026, 4:43 PM ET
音量
$30,511終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Apr 24, 2026, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve in favor of the men’s national team that is confirmed by FIFA to replace the Football Federation Islamic Republic of Iran (IR) at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If an unlisted men’s national team is officially announced to replace Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, this market will resolve to “Other”
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no confirmation that any team will replace Iran within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “No Replacement”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.FIFA's repeated affirmations that Iran's World Cup 2026 participation remains unchanged, coupled with the Iranian Football Federation's recent confirmation of attendance despite geopolitical tensions, have solidified trader consensus at 85.2% for no replacement. In early May 2026, Iran issued conditions including visa guarantees for all personnel and security assurances amid US visa restrictions on IRGC-linked officials, but a Tehran send-off ceremony for the national team signals commitment to preparations for Group G matches on US soil against Belgium, Egypt, and New Zealand. Proposals to insert Italy—rejected by both FIFA and Italian officials emphasizing pitch-earned qualification—or AFC runners-up like UAE have gained no traction. Only an official Iranian withdrawal over unresolved visa disputes or unprecedented FIFA intervention could shift odds, though both appear improbable given recent stabilizations.
This market will resolve in favor of the men’s national team that is confirmed by FIFA to replace the Football Federation Islamic Republic of Iran (IR) at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If an unlisted men’s national team is officially announced to replace Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, this market will resolve to “Other”
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no confirmation that any team will replace Iran within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “No Replacement”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If an unlisted men’s national team is officially announced to replace Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, this market will resolve to “Other”
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no confirmation that any team will replace Iran within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “No Replacement”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$30,511終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Apr 24, 2026, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...FIFA's repeated affirmations that Iran's World Cup 2026 participation remains unchanged, coupled with the Iranian Football Federation's recent confirmation of attendance despite geopolitical tensions, have solidified trader consensus at 85.2% for no replacement. In early May 2026, Iran issued conditions including visa guarantees for all personnel and security assurances amid US visa restrictions on IRGC-linked officials, but a Tehran send-off ceremony for the national team signals commitment to preparations for Group G matches on US soil against Belgium, Egypt, and New Zealand. Proposals to insert Italy—rejected by both FIFA and Italian officials emphasizing pitch-earned qualification—or AFC runners-up like UAE have gained no traction. Only an official Iranian withdrawal over unresolved visa disputes or unprecedented FIFA intervention could shift odds, though both appear improbable given recent stabilizations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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