**Regulatory hurdles and supply constraints are anchoring the market's strong lean toward "No" for meaningful Apple purchases of CXMT DRAM in 2026.** Apple has lobbied the Trump administration since May-June for assurances against Entity List placement on the blacklisted Chinese DRAM maker and begun qualifying its chips for China-market devices amid AI-driven memory shortages that forced June price hikes on Macs and iPads. However, CXMT operates near full capacity with output largely committed through 2027, limiting available volume, while lawmakers voice national security opposition and U.S. rules restrict technology transfers. These factors, alongside Apple's continued reliance on Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix, sustain the 81% implied probability that no qualifying 2026 purchases will materialize. Key near-term catalysts include any White House clearance decision or formal supply announcements.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
19% 確率
$21,868 Vol.
$21,868 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
19% 確率
$21,868 Vol.
$21,868 Vol.
2026/12/31
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Regulatory hurdles and supply constraints are anchoring the market's strong lean toward "No" for meaningful Apple purchases of CXMT DRAM in 2026.** Apple has lobbied the Trump administration since May-June for assurances against Entity List placement on the blacklisted Chinese DRAM maker and begun qualifying its chips for China-market devices amid AI-driven memory shortages that forced June price hikes on Macs and iPads. However, CXMT operates near full capacity with output largely committed through 2027, limiting available volume, while lawmakers voice national security opposition and U.S. rules restrict technology transfers. These factors, alongside Apple's continued reliance on Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix, sustain the 81% implied probability that no qualifying 2026 purchases will materialize. Key near-term catalysts include any White House clearance decision or formal supply announcements.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ET
音量
$21,868終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Regulatory hurdles and supply constraints are anchoring the market's strong lean toward "No" for meaningful Apple purchases of CXMT DRAM in 2026.** Apple has lobbied the Trump administration since May-June for assurances against Entity List placement on the blacklisted Chinese DRAM maker and begun qualifying its chips for China-market devices amid AI-driven memory shortages that forced June price hikes on Macs and iPads. However, CXMT operates near full capacity with output largely committed through 2027, limiting available volume, while lawmakers voice national security opposition and U.S. rules restrict technology transfers. These factors, alongside Apple's continued reliance on Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix, sustain the 81% implied probability that no qualifying 2026 purchases will materialize. Key near-term catalysts include any White House clearance decision or formal supply announcements.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$21,868終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...**Regulatory hurdles and supply constraints are anchoring the market's strong lean toward "No" for meaningful Apple purchases of CXMT DRAM in 2026.** Apple has lobbied the Trump administration since May-June for assurances against Entity List placement on the blacklisted Chinese DRAM maker and begun qualifying its chips for China-market devices amid AI-driven memory shortages that forced June price hikes on Macs and iPads. However, CXMT operates near full capacity with output largely committed through 2027, limiting available volume, while lawmakers voice national security opposition and U.S. rules restrict technology transfers. These factors, alongside Apple's continued reliance on Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix, sustain the 81% implied probability that no qualifying 2026 purchases will materialize. Key near-term catalysts include any White House clearance decision or formal supply announcements.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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