**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" (83% implied probability) because 2025 sales reached just $59.6 billion—a modest 4% rebound after two years of contraction—making a leap to $65 billion or higher in 2026 a steep climb amid measured recovery signals.** The authoritative Art Basel and UBS Global Art Market Report 2026 (covering 2025 performance) shows dealer sales edging up 2% to $34.8 billion and public auctions rising 9% to $20.7 billion, fueled mainly by high-end trophy lots, estate consignments, and renewed interest in Impressionist, Modern, and Post-War works. Lower- and mid-tier segments remain soft, with online sales declining and transaction volume growing only modestly. Dealer surveys indicate cautious optimism heading into 2026, with 43% expecting sales gains and many anticipating stability rather than rapid expansion, reflecting ongoing recalibration, bifurcated demand, and macroeconomic headwinds. Hitting the $65 billion threshold would require roughly 9% year-over-year growth in a single year—well above the recent trajectory and historical patterns of gradual post-correction rebounds. Key upcoming catalysts include the 2026 auction seasons, major fair results, and any large single-owner collections, but current momentum points to continued modest gains at best rather than the outsized surge needed for resolution to "Yes."