Tesla’s Cybercab faces significant hurdles that have solidified trader consensus around a 73.5% chance it will not reach customers at $30,000 or below during 2026. Production of the steering-wheel-free robotaxi began at Giga Texas in April, but the initial ramp remains deliberately slow while engineers refine unsupervised full self-driving software and address supply-chain constraints for the simplified vehicle design. Regulatory approval for unsupervised operation without safety drivers continues to lag in key markets, with analysts highlighting potential NHTSA reviews and state-level autonomous-vehicle rules that could push first deliveries into 2027. These factors—combined with Tesla’s history of timeline slips on autonomy milestones—have kept market-implied odds firmly tilted against a 2026 sale at the target price point.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$35,757 Vol.
$35,757 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$35,757 Vol.
$35,757 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla’s Cybercab faces significant hurdles that have solidified trader consensus around a 73.5% chance it will not reach customers at $30,000 or below during 2026. Production of the steering-wheel-free robotaxi began at Giga Texas in April, but the initial ramp remains deliberately slow while engineers refine unsupervised full self-driving software and address supply-chain constraints for the simplified vehicle design. Regulatory approval for unsupervised operation without safety drivers continues to lag in key markets, with analysts highlighting potential NHTSA reviews and state-level autonomous-vehicle rules that could push first deliveries into 2027. These factors—combined with Tesla’s history of timeline slips on autonomy milestones—have kept market-implied odds firmly tilted against a 2026 sale at the target price point.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
音量
$35,757終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla’s Cybercab faces significant hurdles that have solidified trader consensus around a 73.5% chance it will not reach customers at $30,000 or below during 2026. Production of the steering-wheel-free robotaxi began at Giga Texas in April, but the initial ramp remains deliberately slow while engineers refine unsupervised full self-driving software and address supply-chain constraints for the simplified vehicle design. Regulatory approval for unsupervised operation without safety drivers continues to lag in key markets, with analysts highlighting potential NHTSA reviews and state-level autonomous-vehicle rules that could push first deliveries into 2027. These factors—combined with Tesla’s history of timeline slips on autonomy milestones—have kept market-implied odds firmly tilted against a 2026 sale at the target price point.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$35,757終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tesla’s Cybercab faces significant hurdles that have solidified trader consensus around a 73.5% chance it will not reach customers at $30,000 or below during 2026. Production of the steering-wheel-free robotaxi began at Giga Texas in April, but the initial ramp remains deliberately slow while engineers refine unsupervised full self-driving software and address supply-chain constraints for the simplified vehicle design. Regulatory approval for unsupervised operation without safety drivers continues to lag in key markets, with analysts highlighting potential NHTSA reviews and state-level autonomous-vehicle rules that could push first deliveries into 2027. These factors—combined with Tesla’s history of timeline slips on autonomy milestones—have kept market-implied odds firmly tilted against a 2026 sale at the target price point.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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