Tesla's Cybercab production ramp at Gigafactory Texas, with pilot builds starting in February 2026 and volume output targeted from April, has yet to yield any confirmed retail sales at $30,000 or below. Company statements and Elon Musk comments have explicitly shifted consumer availability to 2027, prioritizing scaled unsupervised Full Self-Driving deployment, regulatory approvals for driverless operation, and initial deployment of Tesla's own robotaxi fleet over direct customer purchases. These factors, alongside the absence of pre-order openings, certification milestones, or verified sub-$30k transactions amid typical autonomous vehicle delays, sustain the market's strong 86% implied probability favoring no 2026 retail sales.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
14% 確率
$47,896 Vol.
$47,896 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
14% 確率
$47,896 Vol.
$47,896 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla's Cybercab production ramp at Gigafactory Texas, with pilot builds starting in February 2026 and volume output targeted from April, has yet to yield any confirmed retail sales at $30,000 or below. Company statements and Elon Musk comments have explicitly shifted consumer availability to 2027, prioritizing scaled unsupervised Full Self-Driving deployment, regulatory approvals for driverless operation, and initial deployment of Tesla's own robotaxi fleet over direct customer purchases. These factors, alongside the absence of pre-order openings, certification milestones, or verified sub-$30k transactions amid typical autonomous vehicle delays, sustain the market's strong 86% implied probability favoring no 2026 retail sales.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
音量
$47,896終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla's Cybercab production ramp at Gigafactory Texas, with pilot builds starting in February 2026 and volume output targeted from April, has yet to yield any confirmed retail sales at $30,000 or below. Company statements and Elon Musk comments have explicitly shifted consumer availability to 2027, prioritizing scaled unsupervised Full Self-Driving deployment, regulatory approvals for driverless operation, and initial deployment of Tesla's own robotaxi fleet over direct customer purchases. These factors, alongside the absence of pre-order openings, certification milestones, or verified sub-$30k transactions amid typical autonomous vehicle delays, sustain the market's strong 86% implied probability favoring no 2026 retail sales.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$47,896終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tesla's Cybercab production ramp at Gigafactory Texas, with pilot builds starting in February 2026 and volume output targeted from April, has yet to yield any confirmed retail sales at $30,000 or below. Company statements and Elon Musk comments have explicitly shifted consumer availability to 2027, prioritizing scaled unsupervised Full Self-Driving deployment, regulatory approvals for driverless operation, and initial deployment of Tesla's own robotaxi fleet over direct customer purchases. These factors, alongside the absence of pre-order openings, certification milestones, or verified sub-$30k transactions amid typical autonomous vehicle delays, sustain the market's strong 86% implied probability favoring no 2026 retail sales.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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