Trader consensus strongly favors a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate increase at the June 2026 meeting, driven by April headline inflation jumping to 3.0 percent from 1.9 percent in February, fueled by energy price spikes tied to the Middle East conflict. After holding the deposit facility rate steady at 2.00 percent in late April, policymakers highlighted intensified upside inflation risks while noting downside growth pressures, prompting markets to price in initial tightening. Recent economist surveys align with this path, projecting a quarter-point move followed by another later in the year to contain second-round effects. Key upcoming catalysts include fresh inflation prints and the June 11 decision itself, with current market-implied odds reflecting real-capital trader positioning amid elevated uncertainty.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트25 bps Increase 82%
No change 16.6%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$266,682 거래량
$266,682 거래량
2026.06.11
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
17%
25 bps Increase
82%
50+ bps increase
1%
25 bps Increase 82%
No change 16.6%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$266,682 거래량
$266,682 거래량
2026.06.11
50+ bps decrease
$52,747 거래량
<1%
25 bps decrease
$42,551 거래량
<1%
No change
$50,978 거래량
17%
25 bps Increase
$68,516 거래량
82%
50+ bps increase
$51,890 거래량
1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus strongly favors a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate increase at the June 2026 meeting, driven by April headline inflation jumping to 3.0 percent from 1.9 percent in February, fueled by energy price spikes tied to the Middle East conflict. After holding the deposit facility rate steady at 2.00 percent in late April, policymakers highlighted intensified upside inflation risks while noting downside growth pressures, prompting markets to price in initial tightening. Recent economist surveys align with this path, projecting a quarter-point move followed by another later in the year to contain second-round effects. Key upcoming catalysts include fresh inflation prints and the June 11 decision itself, with current market-implied odds reflecting real-capital trader positioning amid elevated uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
마켓 개설일: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
거래량
$266,682종료일
2026.06.11마켓 개설일
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus strongly favors a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate increase at the June 2026 meeting, driven by April headline inflation jumping to 3.0 percent from 1.9 percent in February, fueled by energy price spikes tied to the Middle East conflict. After holding the deposit facility rate steady at 2.00 percent in late April, policymakers highlighted intensified upside inflation risks while noting downside growth pressures, prompting markets to price in initial tightening. Recent economist surveys align with this path, projecting a quarter-point move followed by another later in the year to contain second-round effects. Key upcoming catalysts include fresh inflation prints and the June 11 decision itself, with current market-implied odds reflecting real-capital trader positioning amid elevated uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
거래량
$266,682종료일
2026.06.11마켓 개설일
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus strongly favors a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate increase at the June 2026 meeting, driven by April headline inflation jumping to 3.0 percent from 1.9 percent in February, fueled by energy price spikes tied to the Middle East conflict. After holding the deposit facility rate steady at 2.00 percent in late April, policymakers highlighted intensified upside inflation risks while noting downside growth pressures, prompting markets to price in initial tightening. Recent economist surveys align with this path, projecting a quarter-point move followed by another later in the year to contain second-round effects. Key upcoming catalysts include fresh inflation prints and the June 11 decision itself, with current market-implied odds reflecting real-capital trader positioning amid elevated uncertainty.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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