Market-implied odds for the European Central Bank’s June 11, 2026 policy meeting heavily favor a 25 basis point deposit rate increase, reflecting trader consensus on the need to counter a sharp rise in Eurozone HICP inflation to 3.0 percent in April. Energy price spikes tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions have lifted short-term inflation readings while core measures show modest pass-through risks, prompting the ECB to hold rates at 2.00 percent on April 30 yet signal data-dependent tightening ahead. Recent economist surveys align closely with these probabilities, with roughly 85 percent now expecting the first of at least two quarter-point moves this year. Weak first-quarter GDP growth of just 0.1 percent and upcoming May inflation data remain key swing factors that could still shift sentiment before the meeting.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트25 bps Increase 84%
No change 13.6%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$275,347 거래량
$275,347 거래량
2026.06.11
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
14%
25 bps Increase
84%
50+ bps increase
1%
25 bps Increase 84%
No change 13.6%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$275,347 거래량
$275,347 거래량
2026.06.11
50+ bps decrease
$54,094 거래량
<1%
25 bps decrease
$43,932 거래량
<1%
No change
$52,061 거래량
14%
25 bps Increase
$72,056 거래량
84%
50+ bps increase
$53,209 거래량
1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Market-implied odds for the European Central Bank’s June 11, 2026 policy meeting heavily favor a 25 basis point deposit rate increase, reflecting trader consensus on the need to counter a sharp rise in Eurozone HICP inflation to 3.0 percent in April. Energy price spikes tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions have lifted short-term inflation readings while core measures show modest pass-through risks, prompting the ECB to hold rates at 2.00 percent on April 30 yet signal data-dependent tightening ahead. Recent economist surveys align closely with these probabilities, with roughly 85 percent now expecting the first of at least two quarter-point moves this year. Weak first-quarter GDP growth of just 0.1 percent and upcoming May inflation data remain key swing factors that could still shift sentiment before the meeting.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
마켓 개설일: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
거래량
$275,347종료일
2026.06.11마켓 개설일
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Market-implied odds for the European Central Bank’s June 11, 2026 policy meeting heavily favor a 25 basis point deposit rate increase, reflecting trader consensus on the need to counter a sharp rise in Eurozone HICP inflation to 3.0 percent in April. Energy price spikes tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions have lifted short-term inflation readings while core measures show modest pass-through risks, prompting the ECB to hold rates at 2.00 percent on April 30 yet signal data-dependent tightening ahead. Recent economist surveys align closely with these probabilities, with roughly 85 percent now expecting the first of at least two quarter-point moves this year. Weak first-quarter GDP growth of just 0.1 percent and upcoming May inflation data remain key swing factors that could still shift sentiment before the meeting.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
거래량
$275,347종료일
2026.06.11마켓 개설일
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied odds for the European Central Bank’s June 11, 2026 policy meeting heavily favor a 25 basis point deposit rate increase, reflecting trader consensus on the need to counter a sharp rise in Eurozone HICP inflation to 3.0 percent in April. Energy price spikes tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions have lifted short-term inflation readings while core measures show modest pass-through risks, prompting the ECB to hold rates at 2.00 percent on April 30 yet signal data-dependent tightening ahead. Recent economist surveys align closely with these probabilities, with roughly 85 percent now expecting the first of at least two quarter-point moves this year. Weak first-quarter GDP growth of just 0.1 percent and upcoming May inflation data remain key swing factors that could still shift sentiment before the meeting.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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