Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to Elon Musk posting fewer than 40 times on X from May 4-6, 2026, driven by real-time tracking data from xtracker.polymarket.com showing a verified total of just 34 posts as the period concluded early May 6 EST. This unusually low volume—averaging around 11 posts per day—stems from Musk's reduced social media engagement during his high-profile OpenAI lawsuit trial, where recent daily averages hovered near 16 amid court appearances. Historical patterns show Musk often exceeds 50 posts daily during active periods, but trial distractions have suppressed output. With the window closed and data synced, an upset would require a rare resolution dispute over post classification (e.g., replies or reposts), though traders see negligible risk given the overwhelming evidence.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트40개 미만 100.0%
40~64 <1%
65-89 <1%
90~114 <1%
$1,700,997 거래량
$1,700,997 거래량
2026.05.06
40개 미만
예
40~64
아니오
65-89
아니오
90~114
아니오
115-139
아니오
140~164
아니오
165-189
아니오
190-214
아니오
215-239
아니오
240개 이상
아니오
40개 미만 100.0%
40~64 <1%
65-89 <1%
90~114 <1%
$1,700,997 거래량
$1,700,997 거래량
2026.05.06
40개 미만
$565,000 거래량
예
40~64
$288,028 거래량
아니오
65-89
$375,994 거래량
아니오
90~114
$214,682 거래량
아니오
115-139
$104,206 거래량
아니오
140~164
$52,859 거래량
아니오
165-189
$26,195 거래량
아니오
190-214
$20,099 거래량
아니오
215-239
$23,840 거래량
아니오
240개 이상
$30,094 거래량
아니오
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 4 12:00 PM ET to May 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to Elon Musk posting fewer than 40 times on X from May 4-6, 2026, driven by real-time tracking data from xtracker.polymarket.com showing a verified total of just 34 posts as the period concluded early May 6 EST. This unusually low volume—averaging around 11 posts per day—stems from Musk's reduced social media engagement during his high-profile OpenAI lawsuit trial, where recent daily averages hovered near 16 amid court appearances. Historical patterns show Musk often exceeds 50 posts daily during active periods, but trial distractions have suppressed output. With the window closed and data synced, an upset would require a rare resolution dispute over post classification (e.g., replies or reposts), though traders see negligible risk given the overwhelming evidence.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 4 12:00 PM ET to May 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
마켓 개설일: May 2, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
거래량
$1,700,997종료일
2026.05.06마켓 개설일
May 2, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...결과 제안됨: 아니오
이의 없음
최종 결과: 아니오
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 4 12:00 PM ET to May 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to Elon Musk posting fewer than 40 times on X from May 4-6, 2026, driven by real-time tracking data from xtracker.polymarket.com showing a verified total of just 34 posts as the period concluded early May 6 EST. This unusually low volume—averaging around 11 posts per day—stems from Musk's reduced social media engagement during his high-profile OpenAI lawsuit trial, where recent daily averages hovered near 16 amid court appearances. Historical patterns show Musk often exceeds 50 posts daily during active periods, but trial distractions have suppressed output. With the window closed and data synced, an upset would require a rare resolution dispute over post classification (e.g., replies or reposts), though traders see negligible risk given the overwhelming evidence.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 4 12:00 PM ET to May 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
거래량
$1,700,997종료일
2026.05.06마켓 개설일
May 2, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...결과 제안됨: 아니오
이의 없음
최종 결과: 아니오
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to Elon Musk posting fewer than 40 times on X from May 4-6, 2026, driven by real-time tracking data from xtracker.polymarket.com showing a verified total of just 34 posts as the period concluded early May 6 EST. This unusually low volume—averaging around 11 posts per day—stems from Musk's reduced social media engagement during his high-profile OpenAI lawsuit trial, where recent daily averages hovered near 16 amid court appearances. Historical patterns show Musk often exceeds 50 posts daily during active periods, but trial distractions have suppressed output. With the window closed and data synced, an upset would require a rare resolution dispute over post classification (e.g., replies or reposts), though traders see negligible risk given the overwhelming evidence.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문