Recent hot inflation data and elevated energy prices tied to geopolitical tensions have lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 to roughly 37-45 percent, reversing earlier expectations of cuts. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at the 3.50-3.75 percent target range in its April 29 meeting, with an unusually divided 8-4 vote underscoring data dependence. Persistent core readings and resilient labor market conditions continue to outweigh moderating headline pressures, prompting traders to price in a possible 25-basis-point increase before year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 16-17 FOMC decision and the next CPI and PCE releases, which could clarify whether upside inflation risks warrant policy tightening.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$148,571 거래량
2026.12.09
6월 회의
1%
7월 회의
6%
9월 회의
16%
10월 회의
27%
$148,571 거래량
6월 회의
$14,616 거래량
1%
7월 회의
$1,008 거래량
6%
9월 회의
$161 거래량
16%
10월 회의
$1,477 거래량
27%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hot inflation data and elevated energy prices tied to geopolitical tensions have lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 to roughly 37-45 percent, reversing earlier expectations of cuts. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at the 3.50-3.75 percent target range in its April 29 meeting, with an unusually divided 8-4 vote underscoring data dependence. Persistent core readings and resilient labor market conditions continue to outweigh moderating headline pressures, prompting traders to price in a possible 25-basis-point increase before year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 16-17 FOMC decision and the next CPI and PCE releases, which could clarify whether upside inflation risks warrant policy tightening.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
거래량
$148,571종료일
2026.10.29마켓 개설일
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hot inflation data and elevated energy prices tied to geopolitical tensions have lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 to roughly 37-45 percent, reversing earlier expectations of cuts. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at the 3.50-3.75 percent target range in its April 29 meeting, with an unusually divided 8-4 vote underscoring data dependence. Persistent core readings and resilient labor market conditions continue to outweigh moderating headline pressures, prompting traders to price in a possible 25-basis-point increase before year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 16-17 FOMC decision and the next CPI and PCE releases, which could clarify whether upside inflation risks warrant policy tightening.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$148,571종료일
2026.10.29마켓 개설일
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent hot inflation data and elevated energy prices tied to geopolitical tensions have lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 to roughly 37-45 percent, reversing earlier expectations of cuts. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at the 3.50-3.75 percent target range in its April 29 meeting, with an unusually divided 8-4 vote underscoring data dependence. Persistent core readings and resilient labor market conditions continue to outweigh moderating headline pressures, prompting traders to price in a possible 25-basis-point increase before year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 16-17 FOMC decision and the next CPI and PCE releases, which could clarify whether upside inflation risks warrant policy tightening.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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