Recent Socialist Party fractures have elevated cancellation odds, as the May 8 resignation of parliamentary leader Boris Vallaud and allied officials signals deepening internal divisions that make PS participation in the October 11 primary improbable. This development, following March municipal election alliance strains, has shifted trader consensus toward a 57.5% implied probability of cancellation, given the primary's reliance on broader left coordination among confirmed participants like Les Écologistes. Marine Tondelier maintains 28.5% support as the strongest remaining contender from the green-aligned bloc, while François Ruffin trails at 9.0% amid limited backing from smaller parties. The market prices reflect procedural barriers and unresolved coalition negotiations ahead of the 2027 presidential contest.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트취소됨 57%
Marine Tondelier 29%
François Ruffin 9%
벤자민 뤼카-룬디 1.3%
$51,595 거래량
$51,595 거래량
2026.10.11
취소됨
57%
Marine Tondelier
29%
François Ruffin
9%
벤자민 뤼카-룬디
1%
Lydie Massard
<1%
Clémentine Autain
<1%
취소됨 57%
Marine Tondelier 29%
François Ruffin 9%
벤자민 뤼카-룬디 1.3%
$51,595 거래량
$51,595 거래량
2026.10.11
취소됨
$8,298 거래량
57%
Marine Tondelier
$26,582 거래량
29%
François Ruffin
$11,243 거래량
9%
벤자민 뤼카-룬디
$117 거래량
1%
Lydie Massard
$1,474 거래량
<1%
Clémentine Autain
$3,882 거래량
<1%
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Recent Socialist Party fractures have elevated cancellation odds, as the May 8 resignation of parliamentary leader Boris Vallaud and allied officials signals deepening internal divisions that make PS participation in the October 11 primary improbable. This development, following March municipal election alliance strains, has shifted trader consensus toward a 57.5% implied probability of cancellation, given the primary's reliance on broader left coordination among confirmed participants like Les Écologistes. Marine Tondelier maintains 28.5% support as the strongest remaining contender from the green-aligned bloc, while François Ruffin trails at 9.0% amid limited backing from smaller parties. The market prices reflect procedural barriers and unresolved coalition negotiations ahead of the 2027 presidential contest.
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
마켓 개설일: May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
거래량
$51,595종료일
2026.10.11마켓 개설일
May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Recent Socialist Party fractures have elevated cancellation odds, as the May 8 resignation of parliamentary leader Boris Vallaud and allied officials signals deepening internal divisions that make PS participation in the October 11 primary improbable. This development, following March municipal election alliance strains, has shifted trader consensus toward a 57.5% implied probability of cancellation, given the primary's reliance on broader left coordination among confirmed participants like Les Écologistes. Marine Tondelier maintains 28.5% support as the strongest remaining contender from the green-aligned bloc, while François Ruffin trails at 9.0% amid limited backing from smaller parties. The market prices reflect procedural barriers and unresolved coalition negotiations ahead of the 2027 presidential contest.
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
거래량
$51,595종료일
2026.10.11마켓 개설일
May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Socialist Party fractures have elevated cancellation odds, as the May 8 resignation of parliamentary leader Boris Vallaud and allied officials signals deepening internal divisions that make PS participation in the October 11 primary improbable. This development, following March municipal election alliance strains, has shifted trader consensus toward a 57.5% implied probability of cancellation, given the primary's reliance on broader left coordination among confirmed participants like Les Écologistes. Marine Tondelier maintains 28.5% support as the strongest remaining contender from the green-aligned bloc, while François Ruffin trails at 9.0% amid limited backing from smaller parties. The market prices reflect procedural barriers and unresolved coalition negotiations ahead of the 2027 presidential contest.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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