**Traders assign an 86% probability to “No” because Turkey has made no concrete legislative progress toward a new constitution in 2026 despite earlier steps.** President Erdoğan appointed a ten-member legal commission in May 2025 to draft a civilian charter, yet the group has produced no parliamentary bill, cross-party agreement, or referendum announcement by mid-2026. The ruling AKP alliance holds roughly 321 seats in the 600-seat Grand National Assembly—well short of the 360 votes needed to trigger a referendum or the 400 required for direct amendment—while opposition parties remain opposed and Kurdish support hinges on unresolved negotiations tied to the PKK peace process. Analysts note that any term-limit adjustment for Erdoğan could instead occur through early elections rather than wholesale constitutional overhaul. These structural and political barriers, unchanged in recent months, underpin the market’s strong consensus against meaningful movement before year-end.