Recent preliminary CDC data showing January and February 2026 births down 4.8% and 2.15% year-over-year has cemented trader consensus around a "No" outcome at 80% implied probability. This follows the provisional 2025 general fertility rate hitting a record low of 53.1 births per 1,000 women aged 15-44, a 1% drop from 2024 that extends the 23% decline since 2007 amid persistent economic pressures, delayed childbearing, and shifting cultural priorities around family formation. With Q4 2025 benchmarked at 53.3 and no reversal signals in early monthly figures, the market reflects sustained demographic headwinds rather than any short-term rebound narrative. Traders are watching the next CDC Vital Statistics Rapid Release for final Q1 confirmation while noting how these trends continue to shape broader societal discussions on population and workforce dynamics.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트US fertility rate up in Q1 2026?
US fertility rate up in Q1 2026?
신규
신규
2026.12.31
신규
신규
2026.12.31
The CDC estimates a general fertility rate of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q4 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions.
The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.Recent preliminary CDC data showing January and February 2026 births down 4.8% and 2.15% year-over-year has cemented trader consensus around a "No" outcome at 80% implied probability. This follows the provisional 2025 general fertility rate hitting a record low of 53.1 births per 1,000 women aged 15-44, a 1% drop from 2024 that extends the 23% decline since 2007 amid persistent economic pressures, delayed childbearing, and shifting cultural priorities around family formation. With Q4 2025 benchmarked at 53.3 and no reversal signals in early monthly figures, the market reflects sustained demographic headwinds rather than any short-term rebound narrative. Traders are watching the next CDC Vital Statistics Rapid Release for final Q1 confirmation while noting how these trends continue to shape broader societal discussions on population and workforce dynamics.
The CDC estimates a general fertility rate of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q4 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions.
The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions.
The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.
마켓 개설일: Apr 27, 2026, 4:53 PM ET
거래량
$73종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Apr 27, 2026, 4:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The CDC estimates a general fertility rate of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q4 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions.
The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.Recent preliminary CDC data showing January and February 2026 births down 4.8% and 2.15% year-over-year has cemented trader consensus around a "No" outcome at 80% implied probability. This follows the provisional 2025 general fertility rate hitting a record low of 53.1 births per 1,000 women aged 15-44, a 1% drop from 2024 that extends the 23% decline since 2007 amid persistent economic pressures, delayed childbearing, and shifting cultural priorities around family formation. With Q4 2025 benchmarked at 53.3 and no reversal signals in early monthly figures, the market reflects sustained demographic headwinds rather than any short-term rebound narrative. Traders are watching the next CDC Vital Statistics Rapid Release for final Q1 confirmation while noting how these trends continue to shape broader societal discussions on population and workforce dynamics.
The CDC estimates a general fertility rate of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q4 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions.
The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions.
The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.
거래량
$73종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Apr 27, 2026, 4:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent preliminary CDC data showing January and February 2026 births down 4.8% and 2.15% year-over-year has cemented trader consensus around a "No" outcome at 80% implied probability. This follows the provisional 2025 general fertility rate hitting a record low of 53.1 births per 1,000 women aged 15-44, a 1% drop from 2024 that extends the 23% decline since 2007 amid persistent economic pressures, delayed childbearing, and shifting cultural priorities around family formation. With Q4 2025 benchmarked at 53.3 and no reversal signals in early monthly figures, the market reflects sustained demographic headwinds rather than any short-term rebound narrative. Traders are watching the next CDC Vital Statistics Rapid Release for final Q1 confirmation while noting how these trends continue to shape broader societal discussions on population and workforce dynamics.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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