xAI's Grok models have surged in efficiency and real-world capabilities, with Grok-4.3—released in early May 2026 at just 500 billion parameters—topping leaderboards in coding (PinchBench), instruction-following (IFBench at 81.3%), and agentic tasks while boasting the lowest hallucination rates among frontier AI systems. However, on Epoch AI's FrontierMath benchmark of unpublished expert-level math problems (Tiers 1-4), prior Grok-4 evaluations scored only 12-14% overall and 2% on Tier 4 private sets, trailing OpenAI's GPT-5.5 Pro (52.4%) and GPT-5.4 (47.6%). Traders eye xAI's rapid iteration, including imminent Grok-4.4 and Grok-5 (10 trillion parameters) amid Colossus supercluster training, for potential math breakthroughs by June 30; absent new Epoch evaluations or announcements, implied probabilities hinge on competitive scaling in large language model reasoning.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$20,870 거래량
2026.02.28
25%+
57%
30%+
48%
40%+
45%
50% 이상
18%
$20,870 거래량
25%+
$5,197 거래량
57%
30%+
$12,605 거래량
48%
40%+
$2,898 거래량
45%
50% 이상
$170 거래량
18%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.xAI's Grok models have surged in efficiency and real-world capabilities, with Grok-4.3—released in early May 2026 at just 500 billion parameters—topping leaderboards in coding (PinchBench), instruction-following (IFBench at 81.3%), and agentic tasks while boasting the lowest hallucination rates among frontier AI systems. However, on Epoch AI's FrontierMath benchmark of unpublished expert-level math problems (Tiers 1-4), prior Grok-4 evaluations scored only 12-14% overall and 2% on Tier 4 private sets, trailing OpenAI's GPT-5.5 Pro (52.4%) and GPT-5.4 (47.6%). Traders eye xAI's rapid iteration, including imminent Grok-4.4 and Grok-5 (10 trillion parameters) amid Colossus supercluster training, for potential math breakthroughs by June 30; absent new Epoch evaluations or announcements, implied probabilities hinge on competitive scaling in large language model reasoning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Jan 30, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
거래량
$20,870종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Jan 30, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.xAI's Grok models have surged in efficiency and real-world capabilities, with Grok-4.3—released in early May 2026 at just 500 billion parameters—topping leaderboards in coding (PinchBench), instruction-following (IFBench at 81.3%), and agentic tasks while boasting the lowest hallucination rates among frontier AI systems. However, on Epoch AI's FrontierMath benchmark of unpublished expert-level math problems (Tiers 1-4), prior Grok-4 evaluations scored only 12-14% overall and 2% on Tier 4 private sets, trailing OpenAI's GPT-5.5 Pro (52.4%) and GPT-5.4 (47.6%). Traders eye xAI's rapid iteration, including imminent Grok-4.4 and Grok-5 (10 trillion parameters) amid Colossus supercluster training, for potential math breakthroughs by June 30; absent new Epoch evaluations or announcements, implied probabilities hinge on competitive scaling in large language model reasoning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$20,870종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Jan 30, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...xAI's Grok models have surged in efficiency and real-world capabilities, with Grok-4.3—released in early May 2026 at just 500 billion parameters—topping leaderboards in coding (PinchBench), instruction-following (IFBench at 81.3%), and agentic tasks while boasting the lowest hallucination rates among frontier AI systems. However, on Epoch AI's FrontierMath benchmark of unpublished expert-level math problems (Tiers 1-4), prior Grok-4 evaluations scored only 12-14% overall and 2% on Tier 4 private sets, trailing OpenAI's GPT-5.5 Pro (52.4%) and GPT-5.4 (47.6%). Traders eye xAI's rapid iteration, including imminent Grok-4.4 and Grok-5 (10 trillion parameters) amid Colossus supercluster training, for potential math breakthroughs by June 30; absent new Epoch evaluations or announcements, implied probabilities hinge on competitive scaling in large language model reasoning.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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