Trader consensus on the Argentina official USD/ARS rate at end-2026 shows a tight contest, with the 1600–1699 bracket holding a narrow 51.5% implied probability edge over the 42.5% chance of finishing below 1600. The primary driver remains the January 2026 shift to an inflation-linked crawling band that expands monthly at the prior two-month inflation rate, currently supporting reserve accumulation amid roughly 30% projected 2026 CPI. Recent data place the spot rate near 1440, with IMF forecasts of 3.5% GDP growth and ongoing efforts to manage $20 billion in debt service creating tension between controlled depreciation and faster peso weakening if balance-of-payments pressures intensify. Key swing factors include the pace of disinflation, export revenues from energy and mining, and any renewed IMF or bilateral support that could anchor the band more firmly than current trader pricing implies.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$19,031 Wol.
$19,031 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
<1600.00
34%
1600.00–1699.99
35%
1700.00–1799.99
14%
1800.00–1899.99
3%
1900.00–1999.99
2%
2000.00+
5%
$19,031 Wol.
$19,031 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
<1600.00
$2,067 Wol.
34%
1600.00–1699.99
$1,477 Wol.
35%
1700.00–1799.99
$1,571 Wol.
14%
1800.00–1899.99
$1,116 Wol.
3%
1900.00–1999.99
$11,360 Wol.
2%
2000.00+
$1,439 Wol.
5%
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on the Argentina official USD/ARS rate at end-2026 shows a tight contest, with the 1600–1699 bracket holding a narrow 51.5% implied probability edge over the 42.5% chance of finishing below 1600. The primary driver remains the January 2026 shift to an inflation-linked crawling band that expands monthly at the prior two-month inflation rate, currently supporting reserve accumulation amid roughly 30% projected 2026 CPI. Recent data place the spot rate near 1440, with IMF forecasts of 3.5% GDP growth and ongoing efforts to manage $20 billion in debt service creating tension between controlled depreciation and faster peso weakening if balance-of-payments pressures intensify. Key swing factors include the pace of disinflation, export revenues from energy and mining, and any renewed IMF or bilateral support that could anchor the band more firmly than current trader pricing implies.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
Wolumen
$19,031Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on the Argentina official USD/ARS rate at end-2026 shows a tight contest, with the 1600–1699 bracket holding a narrow 51.5% implied probability edge over the 42.5% chance of finishing below 1600. The primary driver remains the January 2026 shift to an inflation-linked crawling band that expands monthly at the prior two-month inflation rate, currently supporting reserve accumulation amid roughly 30% projected 2026 CPI. Recent data place the spot rate near 1440, with IMF forecasts of 3.5% GDP growth and ongoing efforts to manage $20 billion in debt service creating tension between controlled depreciation and faster peso weakening if balance-of-payments pressures intensify. Key swing factors include the pace of disinflation, export revenues from energy and mining, and any renewed IMF or bilateral support that could anchor the band more firmly than current trader pricing implies.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Wolumen
$19,031Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on the Argentina official USD/ARS rate at end-2026 shows a tight contest, with the 1600–1699 bracket holding a narrow 51.5% implied probability edge over the 42.5% chance of finishing below 1600. The primary driver remains the January 2026 shift to an inflation-linked crawling band that expands monthly at the prior two-month inflation rate, currently supporting reserve accumulation amid roughly 30% projected 2026 CPI. Recent data place the spot rate near 1440, with IMF forecasts of 3.5% GDP growth and ongoing efforts to manage $20 billion in debt service creating tension between controlled depreciation and faster peso weakening if balance-of-payments pressures intensify. Key swing factors include the pace of disinflation, export revenues from energy and mining, and any renewed IMF or bilateral support that could anchor the band more firmly than current trader pricing implies.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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