Eli Crane holds a narrow but growing lead over Jonathan Nez in the November 3 election for Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District, with 82% of votes counted showing Crane at 49.5% and Nez at 48.7%. The Republican-leaning district, where Donald Trump won by 15 points in 2024, favors the incumbent, who previously defeated Nez by 9 points. Late-cycle polling showed a tighter contest, and outside spending exceeded $7 million, mostly supporting Crane. As additional ballots from rural and Republican-leaning areas are tallied, the margin has widened slightly in Crane’s favor. Traders view the remaining count and district fundamentals as sufficient to sustain his advantage, producing the current 69.5% implied probability for Crane.