Aisha Wahab holds an 84% implied probability in the CA-14 special election market because she finished first in the June 16, 2026, primary with roughly 43% of the vote in this safely Democratic Bay Area seat, advancing to the August 18 runoff against second-place finisher Melissa Hernandez. The vacancy created by Eric Swalwell’s April resignation triggered the special election, and California’s top-two runoff rules eliminated all other candidates, including Republicans such as Wendy Huang. Wahab’s margin in the primary, combined with endorsements from the California Democratic Party, has shaped trader consensus on her advantage heading into the final contest. Hernandez, a former Dublin mayor and BART board member, remains the only realistic alternative but trails significantly in both vote share and fundraising. No major late developments have altered the race in the week before the runoff.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCA-14 Special Election Winner?
CA-14 Special Election Winner?
Aisha Wahab 84%
Melissa Hernandez 14.4%
Carin Elam <1%
Wendy Huang <1%
$24,505 Wol.
$24,505 Wol.
Aisha Wahab
84%
Melissa Hernandez
14%
Wendy Huang
1%
Carin Elam
1%
Matt Ortega
<1%
Rakhi Israni Singh
<1%
Victor Aguilar Jr.
<1%
Aisha Wahab 84%
Melissa Hernandez 14.4%
Carin Elam <1%
Wendy Huang <1%
$24,505 Wol.
$24,505 Wol.
Aisha Wahab
84%
Melissa Hernandez
14%
Wendy Huang
1%
Carin Elam
1%
Matt Ortega
<1%
Rakhi Israni Singh
<1%
Victor Aguilar Jr.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.
This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.
This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Aisha Wahab holds an 84% implied probability in the CA-14 special election market because she finished first in the June 16, 2026, primary with roughly 43% of the vote in this safely Democratic Bay Area seat, advancing to the August 18 runoff against second-place finisher Melissa Hernandez. The vacancy created by Eric Swalwell’s April resignation triggered the special election, and California’s top-two runoff rules eliminated all other candidates, including Republicans such as Wendy Huang. Wahab’s margin in the primary, combined with endorsements from the California Democratic Party, has shaped trader consensus on her advantage heading into the final contest. Hernandez, a former Dublin mayor and BART board member, remains the only realistic alternative but trails significantly in both vote share and fundraising. No major late developments have altered the race in the week before the runoff.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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