Aisha Wahab holds an 85% implied probability in the CA-14 special election market after finishing well ahead of other candidates in the June 16 primary for the safely Democratic Bay Area seat vacated by Eric Swalwell. Her 38–43% primary share more than doubled Melissa Hernandez’s 17% total, positioning Wahab as the clear frontrunner ahead of the August 18 runoff between the two Democrats. Recent developments include a six-figure independent expenditure campaign launched by the J Street Action Fund on August 13 in support of Wahab, alongside endorsements from groups such as CAIR Action. These factors, combined with the district’s consistent Democratic voting patterns and Wahab’s incumbency as a state senator, have shaped trader consensus around her strong position in the final days before the runoff.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCA-14 Special Election Winner?
CA-14 Special Election Winner?
Aisha Wahab 85%
Melissa Hernandez 14.4%
Carin Elam <1%
Wendy Huang <1%
$24,916 Wol.
$24,916 Wol.
Aisha Wahab
85%
Melissa Hernandez
14%
Wendy Huang
1%
Carin Elam
1%
Matt Ortega
<1%
Rakhi Israni Singh
<1%
Victor Aguilar Jr.
<1%
Aisha Wahab 85%
Melissa Hernandez 14.4%
Carin Elam <1%
Wendy Huang <1%
$24,916 Wol.
$24,916 Wol.
Aisha Wahab
85%
Melissa Hernandez
14%
Wendy Huang
1%
Carin Elam
1%
Matt Ortega
<1%
Rakhi Israni Singh
<1%
Victor Aguilar Jr.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.
This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.
This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Aisha Wahab holds an 85% implied probability in the CA-14 special election market after finishing well ahead of other candidates in the June 16 primary for the safely Democratic Bay Area seat vacated by Eric Swalwell. Her 38–43% primary share more than doubled Melissa Hernandez’s 17% total, positioning Wahab as the clear frontrunner ahead of the August 18 runoff between the two Democrats. Recent developments include a six-figure independent expenditure campaign launched by the J Street Action Fund on August 13 in support of Wahab, alongside endorsements from groups such as CAIR Action. These factors, combined with the district’s consistent Democratic voting patterns and Wahab’s incumbency as a state senator, have shaped trader consensus around her strong position in the final days before the runoff.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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