The open-seat contest in California's 26th congressional district pits Democrat Jacqui Irwin against Republican Sam Gallucci following Julia Brownley's retirement and mid-decade redistricting that shifted the map further Democratic. Top-two primary results and nonpartisan forecasts establish Irwin as the clear frontrunner in a district where Democratic candidates have historically held advantages, yet trader pricing on margin buckets and a Republican win reflects ongoing uncertainty tied to national midterm dynamics, candidate fundraising, and turnout patterns in Ventura and Los Angeles County portions of the district. Key factors sustaining the tight market include limited recent polling divergence and the potential for late shifts in voter enthusiasm or economic messaging. Scheduled events such as candidate debates or October polling releases could widen separation by clarifying the effective margin ahead of the November 3 general election.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCA-26 House Election Margin of Victory
CA-26 House Election Margin of Victory
Democrat 25-30% 43%
Democrat 10-15% 43%
Democrat 30-35% 42%
Democrat 15-20% 42%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 35%+
39%
Democrat 30-35%
42%
Democrat 25-30%
43%
Democrat 20-25%
40%
Democrat 15-20%
42%
Democrat 10-15%
43%
Democrat 5-10%
42%
Democrat 0-5%
42%
Republican Wins
41%
Democrat 25-30% 43%
Democrat 10-15% 43%
Democrat 30-35% 42%
Democrat 15-20% 42%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 35%+
$0 Wol.
39%
Democrat 30-35%
$0 Wol.
42%
Democrat 25-30%
$0 Wol.
43%
Democrat 20-25%
$0 Wol.
40%
Democrat 15-20%
$0 Wol.
42%
Democrat 10-15%
$0 Wol.
43%
Democrat 5-10%
$0 Wol.
42%
Democrat 0-5%
$0 Wol.
42%
Republican Wins
$0 Wol.
41%
The 2026 CA-26 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-26 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The open-seat contest in California's 26th congressional district pits Democrat Jacqui Irwin against Republican Sam Gallucci following Julia Brownley's retirement and mid-decade redistricting that shifted the map further Democratic. Top-two primary results and nonpartisan forecasts establish Irwin as the clear frontrunner in a district where Democratic candidates have historically held advantages, yet trader pricing on margin buckets and a Republican win reflects ongoing uncertainty tied to national midterm dynamics, candidate fundraising, and turnout patterns in Ventura and Los Angeles County portions of the district. Key factors sustaining the tight market include limited recent polling divergence and the potential for late shifts in voter enthusiasm or economic messaging. Scheduled events such as candidate debates or October polling releases could widen separation by clarifying the effective margin ahead of the November 3 general election.
The 2026 CA-26 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-26 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-26 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 2, 2026, 3:34 PM ET
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 2, 2026, 3:34 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 CA-26 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-26 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The open-seat contest in California's 26th congressional district pits Democrat Jacqui Irwin against Republican Sam Gallucci following Julia Brownley's retirement and mid-decade redistricting that shifted the map further Democratic. Top-two primary results and nonpartisan forecasts establish Irwin as the clear frontrunner in a district where Democratic candidates have historically held advantages, yet trader pricing on margin buckets and a Republican win reflects ongoing uncertainty tied to national midterm dynamics, candidate fundraising, and turnout patterns in Ventura and Los Angeles County portions of the district. Key factors sustaining the tight market include limited recent polling divergence and the potential for late shifts in voter enthusiasm or economic messaging. Scheduled events such as candidate debates or October polling releases could widen separation by clarifying the effective margin ahead of the November 3 general election.
The 2026 CA-26 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-26 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-26 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 2, 2026, 3:34 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The open-seat contest in California's 26th congressional district pits Democrat Jacqui Irwin against Republican Sam Gallucci following Julia Brownley's retirement and mid-decade redistricting that shifted the map further Democratic. Top-two primary results and nonpartisan forecasts establish Irwin as the clear frontrunner in a district where Democratic candidates have historically held advantages, yet trader pricing on margin buckets and a Republican win reflects ongoing uncertainty tied to national midterm dynamics, candidate fundraising, and turnout patterns in Ventura and Los Angeles County portions of the district. Key factors sustaining the tight market include limited recent polling divergence and the potential for late shifts in voter enthusiasm or economic messaging. Scheduled events such as candidate debates or October polling releases could widen separation by clarifying the effective margin ahead of the November 3 general election.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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