US intelligence assessments from March 2026 concluded that Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline or current plans for military action against Taiwan, contributing to the strong trader consensus reflected in the 91.5 percent implied probability for no clash before 2027. Recent US-China diplomatic engagement, including the May 2026 summit between President Trump and CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping, emphasized bilateral talks on trade and regional stability while addressing Taiwan as a sensitive issue without triggering escalation. Routine People's Liberation Army activities in the Taiwan Strait have remained at lower levels with no major exercises or incidents in the past 30 days, while Taiwan's approval of additional defense funding supports deterrence. Potential shifts could arise from abrupt changes in cross-strait military posture or unforeseen regional incidents, though de-escalation signals currently prevail.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoTak
$1,793,045 Wol.
$1,793,045 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
Tak
$1,793,045 Wol.
$1,793,045 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments from March 2026 concluded that Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline or current plans for military action against Taiwan, contributing to the strong trader consensus reflected in the 91.5 percent implied probability for no clash before 2027. Recent US-China diplomatic engagement, including the May 2026 summit between President Trump and CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping, emphasized bilateral talks on trade and regional stability while addressing Taiwan as a sensitive issue without triggering escalation. Routine People's Liberation Army activities in the Taiwan Strait have remained at lower levels with no major exercises or incidents in the past 30 days, while Taiwan's approval of additional defense funding supports deterrence. Potential shifts could arise from abrupt changes in cross-strait military posture or unforeseen regional incidents, though de-escalation signals currently prevail.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,793,045Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments from March 2026 concluded that Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline or current plans for military action against Taiwan, contributing to the strong trader consensus reflected in the 91.5 percent implied probability for no clash before 2027. Recent US-China diplomatic engagement, including the May 2026 summit between President Trump and CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping, emphasized bilateral talks on trade and regional stability while addressing Taiwan as a sensitive issue without triggering escalation. Routine People's Liberation Army activities in the Taiwan Strait have remained at lower levels with no major exercises or incidents in the past 30 days, while Taiwan's approval of additional defense funding supports deterrence. Potential shifts could arise from abrupt changes in cross-strait military posture or unforeseen regional incidents, though de-escalation signals currently prevail.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$1,793,045Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments from March 2026 concluded that Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline or current plans for military action against Taiwan, contributing to the strong trader consensus reflected in the 91.5 percent implied probability for no clash before 2027. Recent US-China diplomatic engagement, including the May 2026 summit between President Trump and CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping, emphasized bilateral talks on trade and regional stability while addressing Taiwan as a sensitive issue without triggering escalation. Routine People's Liberation Army activities in the Taiwan Strait have remained at lower levels with no major exercises or incidents in the past 30 days, while Taiwan's approval of additional defense funding supports deterrence. Potential shifts could arise from abrupt changes in cross-strait military posture or unforeseen regional incidents, though de-escalation signals currently prevail.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania