Zandvoort’s narrow layout through sand dunes, with its steep banking, tight corners, and minimal runoff areas, has historically produced incidents during overtakes and wheel-to-wheel racing, elevating the chance of debris or crashes that trigger a safety car. Forecasters point to an 85% precipitation probability for the August 23 race weekend, which could create standing water, reduced grip, and variable conditions that amplify incident risk, particularly on this first F1 Sprint event at the circuit. The 2026 power-unit and active-aero regulations introduce additional unknowns around car handling on high-lateral-load sections. Trader consensus around 57.5% for a safety car reflects these combined track, weather, and format factors without assuming inevitability, as dry, clean races remain possible.