The market-implied odds of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting reflect trader consensus on resilient economic data and sticky inflation that continue to support a restrictive policy stance. April 2026 CPI rose 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3% in March—with a 0.6% monthly gain driven largely by energy prices amid ongoing Middle East tensions, while the labor market showed steady payroll gains and unemployment at 4.3%. Following the April hold at the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range amid record dissent, markets now price an extended pause through year-end, consistent with the Fed's data-dependent approach and revised growth-inflation outlook. Key near-term catalysts include the May CPI release on June 10 and the June FOMC meeting, where softer readings on jobs or prices could introduce modest scope for adjustment.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoDecyzja Fed w lipcu?
Decyzja Fed w lipcu?
Brak zmiany 94%
Podwyżka o 25 pb 4.0%
Obniżka o 25 pb 2.6%
Obniżka o 50+ pb <1%
$5,570,856 Wol.
$5,570,856 Wol.
Jul 29, 2026
Obniżka o 50+ pb
1%
Obniżka o 25 pb
3%
Brak zmiany
94%
Podwyżka o 25 pb
4%
Podwyżka o 50+ pb
<1%
Brak zmiany 94%
Podwyżka o 25 pb 4.0%
Obniżka o 25 pb 2.6%
Obniżka o 50+ pb <1%
$5,570,856 Wol.
$5,570,856 Wol.
Jul 29, 2026
Obniżka o 50+ pb
$548,506 Wol.
1%
Obniżka o 25 pb
$422,704 Wol.
3%
Brak zmiany
$656,189 Wol.
94%
Podwyżka o 25 pb
$3,406,359 Wol.
4%
Podwyżka o 50+ pb
$537,298 Wol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The market-implied odds of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting reflect trader consensus on resilient economic data and sticky inflation that continue to support a restrictive policy stance. April 2026 CPI rose 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3% in March—with a 0.6% monthly gain driven largely by energy prices amid ongoing Middle East tensions, while the labor market showed steady payroll gains and unemployment at 4.3%. Following the April hold at the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range amid record dissent, markets now price an extended pause through year-end, consistent with the Fed's data-dependent approach and revised growth-inflation outlook. Key near-term catalysts include the May CPI release on June 10 and the June FOMC meeting, where softer readings on jobs or prices could introduce modest scope for adjustment.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Wolumen
$5,570,856Data zakończenia
Jul 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The market-implied odds of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting reflect trader consensus on resilient economic data and sticky inflation that continue to support a restrictive policy stance. April 2026 CPI rose 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3% in March—with a 0.6% monthly gain driven largely by energy prices amid ongoing Middle East tensions, while the labor market showed steady payroll gains and unemployment at 4.3%. Following the April hold at the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range amid record dissent, markets now price an extended pause through year-end, consistent with the Fed's data-dependent approach and revised growth-inflation outlook. Key near-term catalysts include the May CPI release on June 10 and the June FOMC meeting, where softer readings on jobs or prices could introduce modest scope for adjustment.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Wolumen
$5,570,856Data zakończenia
Jul 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The market-implied odds of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting reflect trader consensus on resilient economic data and sticky inflation that continue to support a restrictive policy stance. April 2026 CPI rose 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3% in March—with a 0.6% monthly gain driven largely by energy prices amid ongoing Middle East tensions, while the labor market showed steady payroll gains and unemployment at 4.3%. Following the April hold at the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range amid record dissent, markets now price an extended pause through year-end, consistent with the Fed's data-dependent approach and revised growth-inflation outlook. Key near-term catalysts include the May CPI release on June 10 and the June FOMC meeting, where softer readings on jobs or prices could introduce modest scope for adjustment.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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