Elon Musk's July 2026 announcements set the dominant timeline for Grok 4.6, targeting release around August 7 as a 1.5-trillion-parameter model reusing the Grok 4.5 foundation but delivering gains through enhanced supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning. xAI followed the mid-July launch of Grok 4.5—its strongest model to date for coding and agentic tasks—with this accelerated cadence, also previewing Grok 4.7 weeks later. Trader sentiment reflects xAI's rapid iteration pace versus slower competitors like Anthropic's Claude Opus series and Moonshot's Kimi models, though actual deployment depends on final training, API integration, and any last-minute delays common in frontier large language model releases.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoGrok 4.6 released by...?
Grok 4.6 released by...?
NOWE
$19,421 Wol.
Aug 7, 2026
August 7
6%
August 14
84%
$19,421 Wol.
August 7
$10,723 Wol.
6%
August 14
$8,699 Wol.
84%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk's July 2026 announcements set the dominant timeline for Grok 4.6, targeting release around August 7 as a 1.5-trillion-parameter model reusing the Grok 4.5 foundation but delivering gains through enhanced supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning. xAI followed the mid-July launch of Grok 4.5—its strongest model to date for coding and agentic tasks—with this accelerated cadence, also previewing Grok 4.7 weeks later. Trader sentiment reflects xAI's rapid iteration pace versus slower competitors like Anthropic's Claude Opus series and Moonshot's Kimi models, though actual deployment depends on final training, API integration, and any last-minute delays common in frontier large language model releases.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 5, 2026, 1:32 PM ET
Wolumen
$19,421Data zakończenia
Aug 14, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 5, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk's July 2026 announcements set the dominant timeline for Grok 4.6, targeting release around August 7 as a 1.5-trillion-parameter model reusing the Grok 4.5 foundation but delivering gains through enhanced supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning. xAI followed the mid-July launch of Grok 4.5—its strongest model to date for coding and agentic tasks—with this accelerated cadence, also previewing Grok 4.7 weeks later. Trader sentiment reflects xAI's rapid iteration pace versus slower competitors like Anthropic's Claude Opus series and Moonshot's Kimi models, though actual deployment depends on final training, API integration, and any last-minute delays common in frontier large language model releases.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$19,421Data zakończenia
Aug 14, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 5, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elon Musk's July 2026 announcements set the dominant timeline for Grok 4.6, targeting release around August 7 as a 1.5-trillion-parameter model reusing the Grok 4.5 foundation but delivering gains through enhanced supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning. xAI followed the mid-July launch of Grok 4.5—its strongest model to date for coding and agentic tasks—with this accelerated cadence, also previewing Grok 4.7 weeks later. Trader sentiment reflects xAI's rapid iteration pace versus slower competitors like Anthropic's Claude Opus series and Moonshot's Kimi models, though actual deployment depends on final training, API integration, and any last-minute delays common in frontier large language model releases.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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