Moonshot AI’s rapid July 2026 launch of Kimi K3—a 2.8-trillion-parameter sparse MoE large language model with native vision, a 1-million-token context window, and open weights—has intensified trader focus on a potential K4 successor. The Beijing lab demonstrated frontier-level performance on coding and agentic benchmarks while undercutting U.S. rivals on price, fueling speculation about continued fast iteration. However, as of mid-September 2026, no official K4 announcement, preview, or release date exists; recent activity centers on enterprise partnerships, a $2 billion ARR target, and IPO preparations rather than next-model timelines. Reports of Moonshot seeking additional NVIDIA Blackwell GPUs for K4 highlight active development and compute constraints from export controls, yet typical post-frontier release cycles and ongoing U.S.-China regulatory friction suggest delays remain plausible. Key near-term catalysts include any technical reports, benchmark leaks, or conference appearances that could shift implied probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoKimi K4 released by…?
Kimi K4 released by…?
$17,814 Wol.
Oct 31, 2026
October 31, 2026
3%
December 31, 2026
5%
$17,814 Wol.
October 31, 2026
$9,489 Wol.
3%
December 31, 2026
$8,325 Wol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI’s rapid July 2026 launch of Kimi K3—a 2.8-trillion-parameter sparse MoE large language model with native vision, a 1-million-token context window, and open weights—has intensified trader focus on a potential K4 successor. The Beijing lab demonstrated frontier-level performance on coding and agentic benchmarks while undercutting U.S. rivals on price, fueling speculation about continued fast iteration. However, as of mid-September 2026, no official K4 announcement, preview, or release date exists; recent activity centers on enterprise partnerships, a $2 billion ARR target, and IPO preparations rather than next-model timelines. Reports of Moonshot seeking additional NVIDIA Blackwell GPUs for K4 highlight active development and compute constraints from export controls, yet typical post-frontier release cycles and ongoing U.S.-China regulatory friction suggest delays remain plausible. Key near-term catalysts include any technical reports, benchmark leaks, or conference appearances that could shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
Wolumen
$17,814Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI’s rapid July 2026 launch of Kimi K3—a 2.8-trillion-parameter sparse MoE large language model with native vision, a 1-million-token context window, and open weights—has intensified trader focus on a potential K4 successor. The Beijing lab demonstrated frontier-level performance on coding and agentic benchmarks while undercutting U.S. rivals on price, fueling speculation about continued fast iteration. However, as of mid-September 2026, no official K4 announcement, preview, or release date exists; recent activity centers on enterprise partnerships, a $2 billion ARR target, and IPO preparations rather than next-model timelines. Reports of Moonshot seeking additional NVIDIA Blackwell GPUs for K4 highlight active development and compute constraints from export controls, yet typical post-frontier release cycles and ongoing U.S.-China regulatory friction suggest delays remain plausible. Key near-term catalysts include any technical reports, benchmark leaks, or conference appearances that could shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$17,814Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI’s rapid July 2026 launch of Kimi K3—a 2.8-trillion-parameter sparse MoE large language model with native vision, a 1-million-token context window, and open weights—has intensified trader focus on a potential K4 successor. The Beijing lab demonstrated frontier-level performance on coding and agentic benchmarks while undercutting U.S. rivals on price, fueling speculation about continued fast iteration. However, as of mid-September 2026, no official K4 announcement, preview, or release date exists; recent activity centers on enterprise partnerships, a $2 billion ARR target, and IPO preparations rather than next-model timelines. Reports of Moonshot seeking additional NVIDIA Blackwell GPUs for K4 highlight active development and compute constraints from export controls, yet typical post-frontier release cycles and ongoing U.S.-China regulatory friction suggest delays remain plausible. Key near-term catalysts include any technical reports, benchmark leaks, or conference appearances that could shift implied probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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