The recent mistrial in Harvey Weinstein’s third New York rape retrial has sharply lifted trader confidence in a “No Prison Time” outcome, now implied at 79.3 percent. Jurors deadlocked after just two days of deliberations on the rape charge tied to Jessica Mann, leaving prosecutors to weigh whether to pursue a fourth trial in the long-running #MeToo case. Weinstein is already serving a 16-year California sentence for a separate rape conviction that remains under appeal, and any additional New York time could run consecutively or concurrently depending on judicial rulings. His declining health and ongoing appeals add further uncertainty, while the mistrial itself removes the immediate risk of a new conviction that might have pushed total exposure toward 20–30 years or more. Traders appear focused on the next few weeks, when any decision on retrial or sentencing consolidation could reshape the odds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHarveya Weinsteina?
Harveya Weinsteina?
Brak kary więzienia 79.4%
<5 lat 5.4%
20-30 lat 4.2%
5-10 lat 4.0%
$991,244 Wol.
$991,244 Wol.
Dec 31, 2025
Brak kary więzienia
79%
<5 lat
5%
5-10 lat
4%
10-20 lat
3%
20-30 lat
4%
30+ years
2%
Brak kary więzienia 79.4%
<5 lat 5.4%
20-30 lat 4.2%
5-10 lat 4.0%
$991,244 Wol.
$991,244 Wol.
Dec 31, 2025
Brak kary więzienia
$349,074 Wol.
79%
<5 lat
$131,330 Wol.
5%
5-10 lat
$79,813 Wol.
4%
10-20 lat
$158,943 Wol.
3%
20-30 lat
$199,610 Wol.
4%
30+ years
$72,473 Wol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The recent mistrial in Harvey Weinstein’s third New York rape retrial has sharply lifted trader confidence in a “No Prison Time” outcome, now implied at 79.3 percent. Jurors deadlocked after just two days of deliberations on the rape charge tied to Jessica Mann, leaving prosecutors to weigh whether to pursue a fourth trial in the long-running #MeToo case. Weinstein is already serving a 16-year California sentence for a separate rape conviction that remains under appeal, and any additional New York time could run consecutively or concurrently depending on judicial rulings. His declining health and ongoing appeals add further uncertainty, while the mistrial itself removes the immediate risk of a new conviction that might have pushed total exposure toward 20–30 years or more. Traders appear focused on the next few weeks, when any decision on retrial or sentencing consolidation could reshape the odds.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ET
Wolumen
$991,244Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2025Rynek otwarty
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The recent mistrial in Harvey Weinstein’s third New York rape retrial has sharply lifted trader confidence in a “No Prison Time” outcome, now implied at 79.3 percent. Jurors deadlocked after just two days of deliberations on the rape charge tied to Jessica Mann, leaving prosecutors to weigh whether to pursue a fourth trial in the long-running #MeToo case. Weinstein is already serving a 16-year California sentence for a separate rape conviction that remains under appeal, and any additional New York time could run consecutively or concurrently depending on judicial rulings. His declining health and ongoing appeals add further uncertainty, while the mistrial itself removes the immediate risk of a new conviction that might have pushed total exposure toward 20–30 years or more. Traders appear focused on the next few weeks, when any decision on retrial or sentencing consolidation could reshape the odds.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$991,244Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2025Rynek otwarty
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The recent mistrial in Harvey Weinstein’s third New York rape retrial has sharply lifted trader confidence in a “No Prison Time” outcome, now implied at 79.3 percent. Jurors deadlocked after just two days of deliberations on the rape charge tied to Jessica Mann, leaving prosecutors to weigh whether to pursue a fourth trial in the long-running #MeToo case. Weinstein is already serving a 16-year California sentence for a separate rape conviction that remains under appeal, and any additional New York time could run consecutively or concurrently depending on judicial rulings. His declining health and ongoing appeals add further uncertainty, while the mistrial itself removes the immediate risk of a new conviction that might have pushed total exposure toward 20–30 years or more. Traders appear focused on the next few weeks, when any decision on retrial or sentencing consolidation could reshape the odds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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