**Recent model guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles points to a modest cooling influence from increased cloud cover and scattered showers expected around July 31, keeping daytime maxima near or slightly below the July climatological average of ~31–32 °C.** Persistent moisture from the summer monsoon trough and possible residual effects from earlier tropical systems limit surface heating and reduce the diurnal temperature range, favoring outcomes clustered around 28–30 °C. Traders assign the highest implied probability to 29 °C because numerical guidance shows the greatest consistency in that narrow band, while single-degree resolution remains sensitive to small shifts in timing of convection or wind direction. With the market tightly bunched between 28 °C and 30 °C, uncertainty centers on whether skies clear enough for brief solar heating spikes or whether rain arrives early enough to cap the peak.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Hong Kong on July 31?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 31?
28°C 41%
29°C 35%
30°C 17%
27°C 7%
NOWE
NOWE
Jul 31, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
7%
28°C
41%
29°C
35%
30°C
17%
31°C
4%
32°C
2%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
28°C 41%
29°C 35%
30°C 17%
27°C 7%
NOWE
NOWE
Jul 31, 2026
24°C or below
$411 Wol.
<1%
25°C
$195 Wol.
<1%
26°C
$848 Wol.
1%
27°C
$2,005 Wol.
7%
28°C
$152 Wol.
41%
29°C
$877 Wol.
35%
30°C
$683 Wol.
17%
31°C
$193 Wol.
4%
32°C
$161 Wol.
2%
33°C
$317 Wol.
<1%
34°C or higher
$208 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Recent model guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles points to a modest cooling influence from increased cloud cover and scattered showers expected around July 31, keeping daytime maxima near or slightly below the July climatological average of ~31–32 °C.** Persistent moisture from the summer monsoon trough and possible residual effects from earlier tropical systems limit surface heating and reduce the diurnal temperature range, favoring outcomes clustered around 28–30 °C. Traders assign the highest implied probability to 29 °C because numerical guidance shows the greatest consistency in that narrow band, while single-degree resolution remains sensitive to small shifts in timing of convection or wind direction. With the market tightly bunched between 28 °C and 30 °C, uncertainty centers on whether skies clear enough for brief solar heating spikes or whether rain arrives early enough to cap the peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 29, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Wolumen
$6,050Data zakończenia
Jul 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 29, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Recent model guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles points to a modest cooling influence from increased cloud cover and scattered showers expected around July 31, keeping daytime maxima near or slightly below the July climatological average of ~31–32 °C.** Persistent moisture from the summer monsoon trough and possible residual effects from earlier tropical systems limit surface heating and reduce the diurnal temperature range, favoring outcomes clustered around 28–30 °C. Traders assign the highest implied probability to 29 °C because numerical guidance shows the greatest consistency in that narrow band, while single-degree resolution remains sensitive to small shifts in timing of convection or wind direction. With the market tightly bunched between 28 °C and 30 °C, uncertainty centers on whether skies clear enough for brief solar heating spikes or whether rain arrives early enough to cap the peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$6,050Data zakończenia
Jul 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 29, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent model guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles points to a modest cooling influence from increased cloud cover and scattered showers expected around July 31, keeping daytime maxima near or slightly below the July climatological average of ~31–32 °C.** Persistent moisture from the summer monsoon trough and possible residual effects from earlier tropical systems limit surface heating and reduce the diurnal temperature range, favoring outcomes clustered around 28–30 °C. Traders assign the highest implied probability to 29 °C because numerical guidance shows the greatest consistency in that narrow band, while single-degree resolution remains sensitive to small shifts in timing of convection or wind direction. With the market tightly bunched between 28 °C and 30 °C, uncertainty centers on whether skies clear enough for brief solar heating spikes or whether rain arrives early enough to cap the peak.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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