Recent forecast runs from multiple models converge on a daytime high near 24–26°C in Istanbul under mostly clear skies and light southwesterly flow, typical for a late-season warm spell before cooler, rainier air arrives Monday. Light winds and moderate humidity limit rapid warming, while the Bosphorus marine layer caps extremes compared with inland sites. Official station data and ensemble guidance show low probability of exceeding 27°C, yet trader positioning heavily favors that threshold, reflecting uncertainty in urban heat-island effects or slight model warm biases observed in recent days. Updated midday observations and any revised NHC-style guidance will likely tighten the distribution ahead of resolution.