Recent forecasts from European models, including ECMWF ensembles referenced by AEMET, indicate Madrid's maximum temperature on October 3 will likely fall between 23–25°C amid increasing cloud cover and a 40–60% chance of light showers or thunderstorms. This transitional pattern follows several days above 26°C and precedes the expected "cordonazo de San Francisco" cooling trend after October 4. Model spreads arise from variable steering flow and localized convective development, which can shift peak readings by 1–2°C depending on timing and location of any rain. Traders appear to price this genuine forecast uncertainty evenly across the 22–27°C range, consistent with typical late-summer variability in the Iberian interior before autumnal stabilization. Updated AEMET and ECMWF runs over the next 48 hours will likely tighten probabilities ahead of market resolution based on official station data.