Current ensemble forecasts from models such as GFS and official AEMET guidance position a maximum of 27–28°C as the most likely outcome for Madrid on September 10, driven by high pressure building over the Iberian Peninsula with northerly flow advecting cooler air after an early-September heatwave that saw peaks near 35°C. Clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds will limit further warming while allowing typical diurnal range under late-summer insolation. Trader consensus reflected in the 53.5% implied probability for 28°C and 32.5% for 27°C aligns with this model agreement, though minor shifts in steering patterns or cloud cover could adjust the peak by 1°C before resolution. Updated AEMET briefings and next model cycles remain key near-term catalysts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Madrid on September 10?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 10?
28°C 55%
27°C 33%
29°C 13%
26°C 3%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 10, 2026
24°C or below
1%
25°C
2%
26°C
3%
27°C
33%
28°C
55%
29°C
13%
30°C
2%
31°C
1%
32°C
1%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
28°C 55%
27°C 33%
29°C 13%
26°C 3%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 10, 2026
24°C or below
$153 Wol.
1%
25°C
$15 Wol.
2%
26°C
$115 Wol.
3%
27°C
$498 Wol.
33%
28°C
$545 Wol.
55%
29°C
$767 Wol.
13%
30°C
$82 Wol.
2%
31°C
$83 Wol.
1%
32°C
$78 Wol.
1%
33°C
$584 Wol.
<1%
34°C or higher
$493 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from models such as GFS and official AEMET guidance position a maximum of 27–28°C as the most likely outcome for Madrid on September 10, driven by high pressure building over the Iberian Peninsula with northerly flow advecting cooler air after an early-September heatwave that saw peaks near 35°C. Clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds will limit further warming while allowing typical diurnal range under late-summer insolation. Trader consensus reflected in the 53.5% implied probability for 28°C and 32.5% for 27°C aligns with this model agreement, though minor shifts in steering patterns or cloud cover could adjust the peak by 1°C before resolution. Updated AEMET briefings and next model cycles remain key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 8, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Wolumen
$3,413Data zakończenia
Sep 10, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 8, 2026, 12:57 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from models such as GFS and official AEMET guidance position a maximum of 27–28°C as the most likely outcome for Madrid on September 10, driven by high pressure building over the Iberian Peninsula with northerly flow advecting cooler air after an early-September heatwave that saw peaks near 35°C. Clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds will limit further warming while allowing typical diurnal range under late-summer insolation. Trader consensus reflected in the 53.5% implied probability for 28°C and 32.5% for 27°C aligns with this model agreement, though minor shifts in steering patterns or cloud cover could adjust the peak by 1°C before resolution. Updated AEMET briefings and next model cycles remain key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$3,413Data zakończenia
Sep 10, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 8, 2026, 12:57 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from models such as GFS and official AEMET guidance position a maximum of 27–28°C as the most likely outcome for Madrid on September 10, driven by high pressure building over the Iberian Peninsula with northerly flow advecting cooler air after an early-September heatwave that saw peaks near 35°C. Clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds will limit further warming while allowing typical diurnal range under late-summer insolation. Trader consensus reflected in the 53.5% implied probability for 28°C and 32.5% for 27°C aligns with this model agreement, though minor shifts in steering patterns or cloud cover could adjust the peak by 1°C before resolution. Updated AEMET briefings and next model cycles remain key near-term catalysts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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