Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Mexico City's October 6 maximum will likely fall in the 21–23 °C range, aligning with the market's heaviest weighting on 22 °C and 21 °C. The city's 2,240 m elevation and early-October climatology—average highs near 22–24 °C—combine with persistent cloud cover and thunderstorm activity to limit daytime heating and keep peaks moderate. Ensemble guidance shows light northwest winds and widespread rain suppressing solar input, while dew points near 14–15 °C support efficient cooling after peak. No strong warm-air advection or clear-sky episodes appear imminent, reinforcing trader consensus around these central outcomes ahead of final observational data.