Current forecast models from Environment Canada and GFS indicate a minimum temperature in Toronto on October 6 likely between 5–8°C, driven by clear to mostly clear skies, northwesterly winds of 10–20 km/h, and radiative cooling under high pressure following a recent cold front. This places the outcome below the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 9.7°C for the date. Market-implied odds favoring 10°C or higher at 48.5% reflect uncertainty in exact overnight minima, while clustered probabilities around 3–9°C capture model consensus on modest cooling. Updated runs from the National Weather Service and Environment Canada over the next 48 hours will refine these estimates ahead of resolution.