Current National Weather Service and private model guidance for Miami on October 9 projects a daily maximum temperature in the upper 80s (mostly 86–89°F), driven by southeast flow, moderate humidity, and afternoon convective development that limits full solar heating. Historical climatology places the Oct 9 average high near 87°F, with a record of 91°F, providing context for the market’s heavier weighting on the 90–91°F bin. Traders appear focused on residual forecast uncertainty around cloud cover, storm timing, and any late-model warming trends that could push readings into the low 90s, while lower-probability bins reflect the low likelihood of extreme outliers given the steering pattern and seasonal norms. Updated model runs and NWS briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these implied probabilities.