Recent ensemble forecasts from global models indicate a moderating pattern over Moscow, with daytime highs most likely peaking between 21–23°C on July 4 amid increasing cloud cover and scattered showers that limit solar heating. This consensus drives the near-even market pricing across those outcomes, reflecting uncertainty in the precise timing of precipitation and the strength of any residual warm advection ahead of a weak frontal boundary. Historical July averages near 23–24°C provide context, yet current runs show slightly cooler conditions than seasonal norms due to enhanced mid-level moisture. Updated guidance from the Russian Hydrometeorological Center and ECMWF high-resolution runs expected over the next 48 hours will refine peak temperature estimates and could shift implied probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Moscow on July 4?
Highest temperature in Moscow on July 4?
21°C 34%
22°C 32%
20°C 14%
23°C 12%
NOWE
NOWE
Jul 4, 2026
17°C or below
1%
18°C
3%
19°C
5%
20°C
14%
21°C
34%
22°C
32%
23°C
12%
24°C
6%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C or higher
<1%
21°C 34%
22°C 32%
20°C 14%
23°C 12%
NOWE
NOWE
Jul 4, 2026
17°C or below
$339 Wol.
1%
18°C
$200 Wol.
3%
19°C
$74 Wol.
5%
20°C
$42 Wol.
14%
21°C
$99 Wol.
34%
22°C
$396 Wol.
32%
23°C
$416 Wol.
12%
24°C
$42 Wol.
6%
25°C
$153 Wol.
1%
26°C
$115 Wol.
1%
27°C or higher
$351 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from global models indicate a moderating pattern over Moscow, with daytime highs most likely peaking between 21–23°C on July 4 amid increasing cloud cover and scattered showers that limit solar heating. This consensus drives the near-even market pricing across those outcomes, reflecting uncertainty in the precise timing of precipitation and the strength of any residual warm advection ahead of a weak frontal boundary. Historical July averages near 23–24°C provide context, yet current runs show slightly cooler conditions than seasonal norms due to enhanced mid-level moisture. Updated guidance from the Russian Hydrometeorological Center and ECMWF high-resolution runs expected over the next 48 hours will refine peak temperature estimates and could shift implied probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 2, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Wolumen
$2,227Data zakończenia
Jul 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 2, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from global models indicate a moderating pattern over Moscow, with daytime highs most likely peaking between 21–23°C on July 4 amid increasing cloud cover and scattered showers that limit solar heating. This consensus drives the near-even market pricing across those outcomes, reflecting uncertainty in the precise timing of precipitation and the strength of any residual warm advection ahead of a weak frontal boundary. Historical July averages near 23–24°C provide context, yet current runs show slightly cooler conditions than seasonal norms due to enhanced mid-level moisture. Updated guidance from the Russian Hydrometeorological Center and ECMWF high-resolution runs expected over the next 48 hours will refine peak temperature estimates and could shift implied probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$2,227Data zakończenia
Jul 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 2, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from global models indicate a moderating pattern over Moscow, with daytime highs most likely peaking between 21–23°C on July 4 amid increasing cloud cover and scattered showers that limit solar heating. This consensus drives the near-even market pricing across those outcomes, reflecting uncertainty in the precise timing of precipitation and the strength of any residual warm advection ahead of a weak frontal boundary. Historical July averages near 23–24°C provide context, yet current runs show slightly cooler conditions than seasonal norms due to enhanced mid-level moisture. Updated guidance from the Russian Hydrometeorological Center and ECMWF high-resolution runs expected over the next 48 hours will refine peak temperature estimates and could shift implied probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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