Recent model guidance from Météo-France and European ensembles points to a moderation after late-June heatwave peaks near 39°C, with Paris maximum temperatures on July 4 most likely settling in the 29–31°C range under lingering high pressure and southerly flow. Subtle differences among 30°C, 31°C, and 29°C outcomes hinge on the precise timing of any Atlantic trough approach, boundary-layer mixing depth, and urban heat-island amplification, all of which remain within typical ensemble spread two days out. Historical July averages near 24–25°C underscore the elevated baseline, yet current conditions favor values several degrees above normal without crossing into the low-probability 32°C+ tail. Updated runs expected within 24 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Paris on July 4?
Highest temperature in Paris on July 4?
30°C 37%
29°C 31%
31°C 22%
28°C 9%
NOWE
NOWE
Jul 4, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
9%
29°C
31%
30°C
37%
31°C
22%
32°C
3%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
30°C 37%
29°C 31%
31°C 22%
28°C 9%
NOWE
NOWE
Jul 4, 2026
25°C or below
$205 Wol.
<1%
26°C
$216 Wol.
1%
27°C
$307 Wol.
1%
28°C
$742 Wol.
9%
29°C
$2,112 Wol.
31%
30°C
$438 Wol.
37%
31°C
$791 Wol.
22%
32°C
$180 Wol.
3%
33°C
$210 Wol.
<1%
34°C
$259 Wol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$405 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model guidance from Météo-France and European ensembles points to a moderation after late-June heatwave peaks near 39°C, with Paris maximum temperatures on July 4 most likely settling in the 29–31°C range under lingering high pressure and southerly flow. Subtle differences among 30°C, 31°C, and 29°C outcomes hinge on the precise timing of any Atlantic trough approach, boundary-layer mixing depth, and urban heat-island amplification, all of which remain within typical ensemble spread two days out. Historical July averages near 24–25°C underscore the elevated baseline, yet current conditions favor values several degrees above normal without crossing into the low-probability 32°C+ tail. Updated runs expected within 24 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 2, 2026, 1:01 AM ET
Wolumen
$5,867Data zakończenia
Jul 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 2, 2026, 1:01 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model guidance from Météo-France and European ensembles points to a moderation after late-June heatwave peaks near 39°C, with Paris maximum temperatures on July 4 most likely settling in the 29–31°C range under lingering high pressure and southerly flow. Subtle differences among 30°C, 31°C, and 29°C outcomes hinge on the precise timing of any Atlantic trough approach, boundary-layer mixing depth, and urban heat-island amplification, all of which remain within typical ensemble spread two days out. Historical July averages near 24–25°C underscore the elevated baseline, yet current conditions favor values several degrees above normal without crossing into the low-probability 32°C+ tail. Updated runs expected within 24 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$5,867Data zakończenia
Jul 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 2, 2026, 1:01 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model guidance from Météo-France and European ensembles points to a moderation after late-June heatwave peaks near 39°C, with Paris maximum temperatures on July 4 most likely settling in the 29–31°C range under lingering high pressure and southerly flow. Subtle differences among 30°C, 31°C, and 29°C outcomes hinge on the precise timing of any Atlantic trough approach, boundary-layer mixing depth, and urban heat-island amplification, all of which remain within typical ensemble spread two days out. Historical July averages near 24–25°C underscore the elevated baseline, yet current conditions favor values several degrees above normal without crossing into the low-probability 32°C+ tail. Updated runs expected within 24 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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