Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models, following the late-June heatwave that drove Paris highs near 40°C, indicate moderating conditions with a July 3 maximum most likely in the 28–29°C range. Post-heatwave subsidence, northwest winds, and partial cloud cover are limiting further warming while keeping values above the early-July climatological baseline of 24–26°C. Model spreads and potential for localized variations create tight uncertainty between these two outcomes, aligning with the market's closely matched leading probabilities and reduced odds for extremes above 30°C or below 27°C. Updated model runs and Météo-France guidance ahead of the date will further refine trader assessments.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Paris on July 3?
Highest temperature in Paris on July 3?
28°C 50%
27°C 26%
29°C 19%
26°C 7.3%
NOWE
$24,104 Wol.
NOWE
$24,104 Wol.
Jul 3, 2026
24°C or below
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
7%
27°C
26%
28°C
50%
29°C
19%
30°C
1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
1%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
28°C 50%
27°C 26%
29°C 19%
26°C 7.3%
NOWE
$24,104 Wol.
NOWE
$24,104 Wol.
Jul 3, 2026
24°C or below
$557 Wol.
1%
25°C
$890 Wol.
1%
26°C
$1,980 Wol.
7%
27°C
$2,527 Wol.
26%
28°C
$4,218 Wol.
50%
29°C
$7,238 Wol.
19%
30°C
$2,125 Wol.
1%
31°C
$1,288 Wol.
<1%
32°C
$740 Wol.
1%
33°C
$855 Wol.
<1%
34°C or higher
$1,685 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models, following the late-June heatwave that drove Paris highs near 40°C, indicate moderating conditions with a July 3 maximum most likely in the 28–29°C range. Post-heatwave subsidence, northwest winds, and partial cloud cover are limiting further warming while keeping values above the early-July climatological baseline of 24–26°C. Model spreads and potential for localized variations create tight uncertainty between these two outcomes, aligning with the market's closely matched leading probabilities and reduced odds for extremes above 30°C or below 27°C. Updated model runs and Météo-France guidance ahead of the date will further refine trader assessments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Wolumen
$24,104Data zakończenia
Jul 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models, following the late-June heatwave that drove Paris highs near 40°C, indicate moderating conditions with a July 3 maximum most likely in the 28–29°C range. Post-heatwave subsidence, northwest winds, and partial cloud cover are limiting further warming while keeping values above the early-July climatological baseline of 24–26°C. Model spreads and potential for localized variations create tight uncertainty between these two outcomes, aligning with the market's closely matched leading probabilities and reduced odds for extremes above 30°C or below 27°C. Updated model runs and Météo-France guidance ahead of the date will further refine trader assessments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$24,104Data zakończenia
Jul 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models, following the late-June heatwave that drove Paris highs near 40°C, indicate moderating conditions with a July 3 maximum most likely in the 28–29°C range. Post-heatwave subsidence, northwest winds, and partial cloud cover are limiting further warming while keeping values above the early-July climatological baseline of 24–26°C. Model spreads and potential for localized variations create tight uncertainty between these two outcomes, aligning with the market's closely matched leading probabilities and reduced odds for extremes above 30°C or below 27°C. Updated model runs and Météo-France guidance ahead of the date will further refine trader assessments.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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